[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

I don't trust newsweek's articles in general, and I would not vote for RFK. This opinion piece accepts RFK's belief that he would get more Trump voters than Kamala voters. For one thing Kamala/Walz is getting poll support from people who don't know squat about either. But this in interesting if it causes strife among the Dems. Note that, for the moment, a court has ruled that RFK's claim of NY residence is a scam, and if he loses that case, other states probably follow.

[MikeyB806]

I fail to see how someone named “Bobby Kennedy” would take votes away from Republicans, haha.

[ClearCase_guy]

“Our Democracy” is a funny thing.

[1Old Pro]

Trump’s October Surprise will be an endorsement from Kennedy when he is not on the ballot in many states due to this NYS determination and decides to get back at the Dems who have done this to him.

[willk]

Anyone who considers himself a conservative or a libertarian and votes for him is an idiot.

[metmom]

"Trump has a real incentive to get Kennedy out of the race," David B. Cohen, Professor of Political Science at the University of Akron in Ohio told Newsweek.

Democrats projecting yet again.

[libertylover]

State and national polls show that when third party candidates are included, Kennedy Jr. is taking more votes from Trump than Kamala Harris

This line from the article doesn't align with the headline.

[Political Junkie Too]

I've been posting my poll analysis that has been saying the same thing for weeks now.

-PJ

[LS]

Bubbay draws more from Ds with the exception of perhaps two counties in PA. Otherwise, they wouldn’t fight so hard to keep him off the ballot.

[Antoninus]

RFK is mass-mailing pro-abortion cards in the Philly suburbs. He’s going to take a chunk out of the Democrats’ vote total there — assuming he’s allowed to stay on the ballot.

[Fledermaus]

The RFK will take more votes from Trump morons are just that. Morons.

[cableguymn]

If kicking him off didn’t help kamalalaladingdong they wouldn’t be trying to.

[Bob Wills is still the king]

RFK Jr. draws more from Trump than from Democrats, primarily because the entire Kennedy family has disowned him as a whack job.

A Trump supporter who knows RFK’s political positions would never vote for him, and doing so harms the Trump campaign.

[A strike]

Sean O’Driscoll:
“...”David B. Cohen, Professor of political Science at the University of Akron “,
a nobody I found to fill in my story.

But hey, he’s as good as the rest of my bullScheiff right?

[Political Junkie Too]

Updating my "Kennedy impact on Trump" polling list.

Right now, the polls are showing that RFK, Jr. is hurting President Trump more than Kamala Harris.

According to 47 polls that ask both the head-to-head and the full-lineup preferences:

• 24 have Trump losing more votes than Harris
• 12 have Harris losing more votes than Trump
• 9 have both losing the same number of votes
• 2 have neither losing any votes

---

The Details:

1. Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 50 - Trump: 47
   • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

2. Pennsylvania (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

3. Wisconsin (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

4. North Carolina (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 47
   • Harris: 46 (-2) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

5. Nevada (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 45 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 42 (-3) - Trump: 47 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

6. Michigan (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 46 (-3) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

7. Georgia (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 46 (0) - Trump: 46 (0) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

8. Arizona (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 46 (-2) - Trump: 42 (-3) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

9. Wisconsin (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
   • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 49 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

10. Michigan (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

11. Pennsylvania (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 46 (-4) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

12. National (Rasmussen Reports 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 44 (0) - Trump: 49 (0) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

13. Georgia (Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 48 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-4) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 2

14. Montana (The Hill/Emerson 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 55 - Trump: 40
    • Harris: 54 (-1) - Trump: 39 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

15. National (Marquette 8/7/24)
    • Harris: 52 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 47 (-5) - Trump: 41 (-7) - Kennedy: 9 - Stein: 2 - West: 1

16. Wisconsin (Marquette 8/7/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 46 (-4) - Trump: 45 (-1) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

17. National (NPR/PBS/Marist 8/6/24)
    • Harris: 51 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 48 (-3) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

18. New York (Siena 8/6/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 39
    • Harris: 49 (-4) - Trump: 37 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 2 - West: 1

19. National (I&I/TIPP 8/5/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 42 (-3) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

20. National (CBS News/YouGov 8/4/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 49 (-1) - Trump: 47 (-2) - Kennedy: 2 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

21. National (Rasmussen Reports 8/1/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (+1) - Trump: 46 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

22. Ohio (Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/1/24)
    • Harris: 42 - Trump: 52
    • Harris: 39 (-3) - Trump: 48 (-4) - Kennedy: 9 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

23. New Hampshire (WHDH-TV/Emerson 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

24. Arizona (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

25. Georgia (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

26. Michigan (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 42
    • Harris: 51 (-2) - Trump: 39 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

27. Nevada (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 43 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

28. North Carolina (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

29. Pennsylvania (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

30. Wisconsin (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

31. Oregon (Hoffman Research 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 44
    • Harris: 45 (-4) - Trump: 40 (-4) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

32. National (Harvard-Harris 7/30/24)
    • Harris: 48 - Trump: 52
    • Harris: 43 (-5) - Trump: 47 (-5) - Kennedy: 8 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

33. Wisconsin (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 46 (-3) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

34. Michigan (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 43 (-6) - Trump: 45 (-4) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

35. Pennsylvania (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-6) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

36. Minnesota (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 52 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 47 (-4) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

37. National (Wall Street Journal 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 44 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

38. National (Forbes/HarrisX 7/26/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 51
    • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 44 (-7) - Kennedy: 10 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

39. National (New York Times/Siena 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-3) - Trump: 43 (-5) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

40. Arizona (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 40 (-4) - Trump: 48 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

41. Georgia (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 43 (-3) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

42. Michigan (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 45 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 44 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

43. Pennsylvania (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

44. Wisconsin (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

45. New Hampshire (Univ New Hampshire 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 49 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

46. Maine (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 54 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 48 (-4) - Trump: 40 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

47. National (Rasmussen Reports 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 43 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 42 (-1) - Trump: 49 (-1) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

---

-PJ