Posted on 07/23/2024 11:21:56 AM PDT by thegagline
Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
The poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention where Trump on Thursday formally accepted his party's nomination and the Biden announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error. ***
The most recent poll showed 56% of registered voters agreed with a statement that Harris, 59, was "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges," compared to 49% who said the same of Trump, 78.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
So, I checked (I’m actually becoming good at this), & this is an online poll of US adults (not registered voters). They also had to radically change the makeup of the poll to D+6 & it still only geve her +2. Such pieces of 💩 liars! 🫣🫢🙄
The most recent NPR/Marist Poll ,which skews heavily towards Democrats, has Trump up by one.
RCP Average has gone from Trump +1.9 to Trump+1.6
Once the Border Czar starts regularly speaking in public, her numbers should collapse.
If she's allowed to define herself first, this number will be maintained. If Trump's Campaign / GOP get going now to define the narrative, this number can drop like a rock - multiple ads can be run without any clipping or editing of her making zero sense whatsoever...but if this is not done, like in 2020 when Biden was able to control how he was defined and the narrative of the campaign, look out...
Internals - RVs... small sample size. D+6 poll.
reuters by way of yahoo, dog sh## by way of horse sh##
Never underestimate the stupidity of the low information voter.
* If she fails in the next 3 weeks *
The only thing she has going for her, is her hard left beliefs and the rules and laws she would apply to all. It’s personal and she knows best. Even in elementary school there is a female peck order.
One word.. Control..
People, at least understand polling.
You take 1000 samples. You hope they are random, but they may not be just because of the area codes and prefixes and who was home that day.
To fix this issue, you have a “turnout model”. This will be the D/R/I mix. All Pollsters Do Not Have The Same Turnout Model.
As per above, they have a turnout model of extra Dems and fewer Inds than either D or R. This is intended to model the electorate. It may be based on 2020 turnout, it may be based on 2022, it may be based on the Census. Various pollsters will have different models.
You Cannot Know Which Model Is Correct.
So all you can do is look for change. Specifically, what did the last Reuters/Ipsos show for the presidential horserace.
Answer, Biden +2. IOW there has been no change.
In March, Forbes did a non horserace survey, to characterize the electorate. They found 45% Independents, and 26% Ds and Rs both. Both at 26%.
If you believe their survey, then the poll likely to be most accurate is the one with a partisan mix closest to those Forbes numbers.
Otherwise, ignore accuracy and just watch the trend of a given poll and it’s methodology.
So she does but ipsos means bull Shiite in some foreign language
They are saying she’s within the margin of cheating.
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