John King is the only guy I trust on CNN. His election night coverage and analysis is outstanding.
BTTT
A “generic” congressional ballot for a single state with a whopping total of 8 districts? Was their sample so small overall that the MOE to poll individual districts was off the charts?
The GOP already holds 6 of the 8 districts. There is zero chance of increasing that number. Republicans should easily hold the 8th district where that gutless spiteful RINO asswipe Mike Gallagher decided to cut and run earlier this year.
The 1st (R+3) and 3rd (R+4) districts are marginal and could be lost in a “blue” wave election, and it wouldn’t even have to be a very large wave; they should be safe otherwise, pending the WI Democrat Supreme Court ordering a Democrat gerrymander as it did for the state legislative districts. The current congressional districts look like they will be retained, at least for 2024.
Still, pollsters could have at least focused on the district level for CD-1, CD-3 and CD-8 and provided some actual useful information instead of meaningless generic numbers.
“The Last Hurrah”
A novel and a film about an older mayor of an unnamed New England city, who is clinging to power by any means necessary.
An old story being retold in real time today.
If Trump maintains a calm, reasonable principled stance, and focuses on the future, it will be worse than this for the rats. Speaking with two longtime liberal friends last night, who have been solid antiTrumpers— they are not only resigned to Trump winning but beginning to be impressed by his response during and after the shooting.
7/16/24
538 Compiliation of polls has Biden 53- Trump 46
I think the actual big news is Trump leading in both Nebraska districts and Nevada. That’s his easiest path to 269. He would have to take back AZ and GA (both SEEM likely). This would mean the blue wall ultimately doesn’t save the Rats. It pushes it to the house.
There’s always the October Suprise. I would not be surprised to see NY sentence Trump to immediate incarceration.
My pessimistic prediction is that the GOP will underperform Trump in the Senate and House. The GOP bench has been weak for years. The Dems have a much better turnout machine than the GOP when it comes to Congressional elections. The GOP needs to rebuild infrastructure and maybe it will be able to compete in 2 or 4 years.
Don’t forget the cheating factor during election itself and the publishing and construction of false and/or misleading polls. I think the Dems are realizing they need to cheat big or conduct an outright physical rebellion to grasp the reins of power.We cannot trust the polls to guide our behaviours.
Mmmmmmmm.......I guess drjill is scurrying frantically to get a Vogue
cover before she’s sent back to Delaware to live her life in obscurity.
Steve Garvey is gaining on Adam Schiff. Please California Republicans, push. It’s heartbreaking when we can come within striking distance and lose because not enough turnout. You have to get them to the polls. We need the certain to vote column larger.
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GOP has to win all three, POTUS, Senate and House in order for DJT to enact his agenda. A dem Senate won’t any pass GOP house bills or approve any DJT appointments. A dem House will repeatedly impeach DJT and try to force their commie agenda.
A dem Senate and a dem House . . . Unimaginable.
I won’t be surprised much if we get another Reagan style.
It's literal if nothing else:
"Trump" [טראמפ] = 330
And,
What CNN's John King Just Said About the Projection of This 2024 Race Should Terrify Dems
"Of" -- it's the word and numeral 330:
של, ש"ל
While it is nice to read articles like this I feel it is prudent to remember that the Ds have shotgun mail-out balloting, drop boxes, double counting ballots, Rank Choice Vote counting, multi-week counting marathons, and dozens of other ways to enhance the vote count for their side down to an art. The spineless Rs seem to more interested in holding hearings on why green Jello is more tasty than red Jello while ignoring the lessons from the 2020 fiasco.
It takes only a few losses in a few states to give a certain R victory to the Ds. If the Rs haven’t identified those locations and locked down the rules regarding Voter ID, mail-in ballots acceptance, etc then all this euphoria is simply the preface to a major disappointment to put it blandly.
330 is not out of the question. My current probability weighted average is 320.5 EV with a 60% chance of it being higher.
-PJ
The rodents’ internal polls must be terrifying