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What if They are Wrong?
Armstrong Economics ^ | 2 July 24 | Martin Armstrong

Posted on 07/02/2024 7:50:26 AM PDT by delta7

Your future will be utterly destroyed because of these Neocons who are consumed with personal hatred of Russians. They are pushing American policymakers, arguing that Putin is bluffing and we can, therefore, destroy Russia, and he will never fire a shot. They insist that Putin won’t put his money where his mouth is regarding escalation. Adam Kinzinger, who is the classic Neocon – a Republican congressman from Illinois who jumped ship and ran to CNN so he could preach World War III after losing the election because of his views. He is now CNN’s senior political commentator.

This is the same Adam Kinzinger who insanely claimed that we could “TAKE OUT” Russia in three days! I guess we could wipe out China in 4.5 days and then rule the world so nobody will retaliate. I have NEVER heard such reckless commentary in my entire life. And he is joined by another Neocon, Ben Hodges, a retired United States Army officer who served as commanding general of United States Army Europe.

We have a very dangerous situation brewing, and Neocons are just so consumed by their personal hatred they are threatening civilization. As a hedge fund manager, you NEVER take a position without understanding where you are wrong. These people would NEVER be a trader because they clearly assume they will win, and Russia and China would NEVER retaliate and just fall to their knees and beg for forgiveness and lick their shoes while they are there.

If hate crimes are to be enforced, they should drag these people out of office, lock them up in the hole, and throw away the key. They do not deserve the death penalty, for that is far too easy. People WRONGLY I think the death penalty is the worst. There are plenty of people in prison for life who would take that option if it was offered. These Neocons have weaseled their way into positions of power to manipulate the power of the United States for their personal vendettas. They are a threat to world peace and your future. People like Adam Kinzinger and Ben Hodges are very dangerous and will bring the United States to its destiny with the fall from the financial capital of the world.

Warning_Leaflets_Nuclear_Museum

This only lends credence to those telling Putin he should nuke Kiev and then ask the world is this where you want to go. They can do as the Americans did to Japan and drop leaflets, giving them a few days to get out of town. If they did what the Americans did and dropped these warnings, then they can argue they have done nothing different from the Americans. However, the argument is that then the people will see Russia is not bluffing, and they will round up these Neocons and lock them up where they belong.

Perhaps that is the only way to prevent a complete all-out nuclear war. The average person has to wake up and demand that their governments back off. Should we all destroy our future and that of our children and grandchildren all for the Donbas? Since the Ukrainians are denied a right to vote to remove Zelensky, they need to storm this palace to save their own country. Nearly 10 million have fled Ukraine, and Ukrainians are not allowed to decide their own fate, for that comes from Blinken in Washington.

They are pushing this nonsense that Putin is bluffing with his warning of nuclear escalation. NATO’s Secretary General, another sad representative of humanity, Jens Stoltenberg, has also dismissed the likelihood of Western aid to Ukraine leading to Russian retaliation. Personally, to save the world, NATO should be utterly destroyed. The Biden administration is controlled by Blinken and his other conflicted Neocons with lineages back to Ukraine who all profess their families were persecuted by Russians. They have usurped the power of the United States for personal gain, and there is NOBODY in Congress with the courage to save our nation.

Blinken makes the decisions, and the debate shows that Biden is not running the country. Blinken controls the Biden Administration, allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to wage war inside Russia now directly —a red line the administration previously refused to cross. If I hire a hitman to tell him to kill someone, I cannot then claim innocence in court because he pulled the trigger, not me.

Historically, let me make this perfectly clear to these people who are bringing the world to destruction. War has ALWAYS escalated when their red lines are crossed. The assumption that Putin is bluffing is self-serving by people who just hate Russians. Historically, countries usually DO NOT bluff, and when they make such threats, they are eventually carried out.

Indeed, if Blinkin and his other morally corrupt individuals ever studied history, they would discover multiple historical examples that show how this proposition has led to death, destruction, and the disastrous fall of empires, nations, and city-states. For centuries, Chinese general Sun Tzu has been revered for his wisdom in dealing with wars over the centuries.

These Neocons have waged endless wars since Vietnam under the pretense that they must defeat Russia. As Tzu warned: “There is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare.” Nearly 2/3rds of our national debt is because of war – not social benefits. Since we NEVER pay off our debt, we then pay interest forever on every war, and the veterans have to be provided healthcare for life for their service.

Putin is the ONLY wise man or adult in the room. Putin trusts Sun Tzu’s words: “Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.” This arrogance is filling the air, and it is so obvious that the West will lose. Clearly, the arrogance of our Neocons ensures that history will repeat itself, for they do not know their enemy at all. Even Sun Tzu said:

“He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”

Even if we closely look at World War II, we can see how these Neocons learned nothing. Japan’s logic behind its attack on Pearl Harbor is an important example of miscalculating an adversary’s willingness to escalate. FDR was doing everything to entice Japan to war, just as the US and Europe were doing to Russia.

The Japanese did not understand that FDR wanted Japan to attack because Congress kept rejecting a Declaration of War to enter Europe. The Japanese misunderstood that America would not retaliate as our Neocons seem to be suggesting with Russia today that Putin is only bluffing.

When Japan occupied French Indochina in 1941, America retaliated by freezing all Japanese assets in the states, just as they had done to Russia. FDR prevented Japan from purchasing oil. Having lost 94% of its oil supply and unwilling to submit to U.S. demands, Japan planned to take the oil needed by force.

However, striking south into British Malaya and the Dutch East Indies would almost certainly provoke an armed U.S. response. To blunt that response, Japan decided to attack the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, hoping that the U.S. would negotiate peace.

The attack at Pearl Harbor was a huge gamble that obviously was wrong for Japan. FDR used Pearl Harbor to justify getting into World War II both in Europe and the Pacific. Instead of reverting to isolationism as Japan miscalculated, the U.S. geared up for total war, and Japan’s fate was sealed. This was FDR’s plan all along. The U.S. had already broken the Japanese code and knew in advance when Pearl Harbor would take place.

At the time, Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto (1884-1943) was the architect of the attack on Pearl Harbor. He wrongly assumed that by attacking Pearl Harbor, the Americans would back off and stop meddling in the Pacific. Ultimately, the Japanese military thought such an attack would shock the United States into a negotiated settlement. Obviously, Yamamoto did not know his enemy. As Sun Tzu said; “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Kinzinger is clearly making the same mistake as Yamamoto. The Russian people do NOT see Putin as a tyrant – it is America who they see as hating the Russian people. They love to claim Putin arrests opponents, yet the Biden Administration not only charged Trump in multiple cases, they have gone after all his supporters and even charged 1400 people for January 6th when state capitols have been stormed over issues like abortion, but nobody charges them.

The Korean War is yet another striking example of this arrogance and misjudgment of an enemy. In 1950, General Douglas MacArthur, the leader of the United Nations Command, pushed American-led forces up the Korean peninsula against the North Korean military. Max Hastings, the military historian, wrote in his book The Korean War how MacArthur insisted on using American forces to achieve a complete victory against the North Koreans. He thought he could drive the troops up the Korean peninsula to the Yalu River, the border with China.

However, Chinese officials made it clear to American and UN officials that they should not push their forces past the river. American intelligence reports also showed that PLA military forces were mobilizing in the regions adjacent to the Yalu River. Still, MacArthur insisted that the Chinese would not enter this war.

MacArthur’s assessment also proved completely wrong as the Chinese troops began pouring into Korea in October 1950, marking one of the turning points in the Korean War. Yet here we have Adam Kinzinger reassuring the world that they can do as they like and Putin will never respond, for he is just bluffing.

Even if we look closely at Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev’s decision to send nuclear missiles to Cuba in 1962, once again, he failed to judge America for making the classic mistake our Neocons are doing today with Russia. On September 13, 1962, President Kennedy warned Khrushchev against turning Cuba into a Soviet base.

“If at any time the Communist build-up in Cuba were to endanger or interfere with our security in any way . . . or if Cuba should ever . . . become an offensive military base of significant capacity for the Soviet Union, then this country will do whatever must be done to protect its own security and that of its allies.”

However, Khrushchev called Kennedy’s “bluff” and decided to send medium-range nuclear missiles to Cuba. He thought Kennedy was a weak leader and believed that his administration would NEVER do anything to counter this maneuver, fearing nuclear war.

is advocating the very same assumptions of Khrushchev that the United States under the Kennedy administration, which was anti-war, was bluffing. What followed from Khruschev’s misjudgment led to the Cuban Missile Crisis, where the world was on the edge of nuclear war over a thirteen-day period. Khruschev tested Kennedy’s resolve, and clear thinking returned. Then, the two met face to face.

Our Neocons and the press are cheering war and are telling everyone that Putin is bluffing just, and MacArthur misread the Chinese, and the Japanese, and Kruschev both misjudged America.

They have thrown caution to the win and ASSUME that they will be victorious. History warns that both sides believe they will be victorious, but in the end, only one is. This is not a roulette table where we put everything in red or black and presume we will win. They are playing with the lives of so many people, all for their personal hatreds.

The entire movement of the BRICS has nothing to do with gold and fiat since all currencies are fiat. This is geopolitical, and the arrogance of our NEOCONS has turned countries against us.

Once they imposed sanctions on Russia and removed them from SWIFT, the dollar became a weapon, and nations realized that if they did not do as Blinken commands, they, too, would be sanctioned and removed from the SWIFT system. Thank our NEOCONS for destroying the world economy.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: agitprop; americalast; blog; enoughalready; escalation; killkillkillforpeace; martinarmstrong; mic; newsforumabuse; notanewsarticle; notanewssite; notyourproblem; panicporn; tothelastukrainian; ukraine; war; welfarewar; whynotpostit; whypostthiscrap; zeepersangry
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To: jdege

Exactly. Everyone knew war was very likely. This is part of the lie that Roosevelt deliberately let our ships get sunk at Pearl Harbor. The truth is Roosevelt loved the Navy and loved the ships. I have no love for FDR, but this is a vicious lie.


21 posted on 07/02/2024 10:18:53 AM PDT by rxh4n1 ( )
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To: delta7
CNN’s senior political commentator.

That is a self-important made-up title.

22 posted on 07/02/2024 10:20:22 AM PDT by HIDEK6 (God bless Donald Trump)
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To: delta7

Two incorrect statements in this article in my opinion:

“The Japanese did not understand that FDR wanted Japan to attack because Congress kept rejecting a Declaration of War to enter Europe.”

When Roosevelt addressed Congress about the Pearl Harbor attack, he did not ask for a DoW against Germany, only Japan. It was not likely Congress would declare war on Germany. Luckily for him, Hitler did him the favor and declared war first.

“However, striking south into British Malaya and the Dutch East Indies would almost certainly provoke an armed U.S. response.”

If Japan had only attacked those territories, I don’t think Congress would have declared war to save the European colonial empires. 1942 and the midterm elections were near. What Congressman would want to go home and tell his voters he sent your kid to die to save Malaya for the British?


23 posted on 07/02/2024 10:32:36 AM PDT by rxh4n1 ( )
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To: Rlsau1
#8: "biggest river of money on this planet is Washington, DC. Almost continuous warfare for 70 years"

Your whole post is excellent. Spot on.

All my life, constant, never ending wars. Why? We are poorer for it. The country is far worse off than when I was a boy. Defense contractors and neocons and bureaucrats wallow in their ugly pigsty.

24 posted on 07/02/2024 11:32:47 AM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (LORD, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil.)
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To: John S Mosby

The Brits didn’t break Purple, they weren’t even working on Purple. It was part of the division of effort between the US and the UK.

And while we knew the IJN carriers were at sea, we didn’t know where they were or where they were headed. The fleet was under radio silence, so traffic intercepts didn’t help.

We did intercept a transmission from a destroyer that had been an escort to one of the carriers. The destroyer was in the South China Sea, from which the USN presumed that the carriers were heading for Singapore.

There was zero evidence that suggested Pearl.


25 posted on 07/02/2024 11:53:24 AM PDT by jdege
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To: delta7

Martin Armstrong is a convicted conman responsible for one of the largest ponzi scheme in US history.

He is never right and is currently conning folks again.

“Yes Johnny, history repeats”


26 posted on 07/02/2024 11:55:28 AM PDT by Freest Republican (There is no tyranny that cannot be justified by imbeciles)
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To: delta7

Some of this is leftist claptrap. Germany declared War on US. North Korea was interely in the wrong.


27 posted on 07/02/2024 12:51:16 PM PDT by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING AMERICA, AND HE WILL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: jdege

Family was in the escort for the Enterprise, just outside of Pearl. On patrol from October 1941 with weapons free against any japanese ships (they still had the orders from when leaving Pearl). They always said the Brits knew what was going on, and they were in the chain of command to know this, no matter what code (which they always referred to-as they were eyes only on the intercepts).

So many historians give FDR a “pass”—because they could not get through the coverup FDR did when he trashed Kimmel and Short (when in fact FDR, and don’t forget the existing Soviet spies in his cabinet even then- was setting up Pearl for failure. Deliberately). And this clown is a hero of joey bags xiden and all the “progressive” clown democrats, all of them machine politicians. American socialists pitted against Euro socialists (same as now).


28 posted on 07/02/2024 1:17:16 PM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: John S Mosby
The best account of what the USN knew and didn't, before Pearl, is Edwin Layton's And I Was There. Layton ran Pacific Fleet Intel through the war. He worked directly under Nimitz, Rochefort worked directly for him.
29 posted on 07/02/2024 2:53:01 PM PDT by jdege
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To: jdege

That’s great- then he worked for family members above his pay grade. Through talking about this- FDR and Lord Marlborough aka Churchill set this all up. The Nazis were never going to beat the UK, and the Soviets would have kicked their a@@es for the same goals of what they gained at Yalta..client states. And, the US would still have destroyed the Soviets and probably the chi-coms... sooner.


30 posted on 07/02/2024 6:48:19 PM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: John S Mosby
FDR was trying to manipulate the Japanese into attacking, as a way of getting the US into the war. He'd sent small US-flagged boats, Philippine-crewed but US-officered, out into the South China Sea, hoping that they'd run into a Japanese fleet, be attacked, and create a pretence for war. But Pearl wasn't a part of it.
31 posted on 07/02/2024 9:02:36 PM PDT by jdege
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To: jdege

See: “The Prize”-— this was all about japan’s need as a small island nation with shogun bushido dreams- of the Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere, in superiority (racial they believed- like the kraut Nazis) over all other Pacific nations, including Australia, Dutch Indonesia, Phillipines, etc.
FDR was all about embargoing oil- he did it- and this is what set off the jap Tojoists and Hirohito. Current Chi-Coms are replicating the original jap goals, igniting all kinds of trouble, and the slugs in the US are so dependent on them- they allow it. Not for long.

“The Prize” is on you tub and is fairly well done, including the ME. And, uh, not the only source on FDRs actions. Layton did a pretty good job as far as he could. The purpose of filleting Kimmel and Short (that rat bastard FDR) was to cover up FDRs actions— typical machine lying a@@hole demonrat who murdered a hell of a lot of family farm’s inheritors and future scions of business in his World UN War— carrying on the Woodrow and Edith Wilson’s “safe for Democracy” world that never was and empowering the Comintern.


32 posted on 07/03/2024 8:31:45 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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