Posted on 06/20/2024 9:05:03 AM PDT by lasereye
President Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump for the first time since October, as positive views of the economy inch up — hitting their highest level thus far in the Biden presidency, according to a new Fox News national survey.
Since May, there was a 3-point change in the presidential race. Trump was ahead by 1 point last month, while Biden is up by 2 points today: 50%-48%. That’s well within the margin of error.
Beyond improved evaluations of the economy, a range of other events since the May survey could influence small shifts in vote preference, including Trump’s hush money conviction, Hunter Biden’s gun trial conviction, a positive U.S. jobs report and Biden’s immigration executive order.
Biden’s current 50% support is his best this election cycle; he hasn’t been ahead of Trump since October 2023 and that was by just 1 point (49%-48%).
There was also a 4-point shift in the expanded ballot. When other potential candidates are included, Biden tops Trump by 1 point (43%-42%), Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 10% and Cornel West and Jill Stein get 2% each. Last month, Trump was ahead of Biden by 3 points (43%-40%).
--snip Voters trust Trump on two of the top five issues: immigration (by 9 points) and the economy (+5). However, those are narrower advantages than he enjoyed in May (+15 immigration and +13 economy). He’s also preferred on handling the Israel-Hamas war (+4). More trust Biden to do a better job on health care (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6), while his biggest advantages are on the somewhat lesser priorities of abortion (+13) and climate change (+20).
--snip "we saw notable erosion of Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration" [says Anderson]
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
First of all Biden counts a huge jobs rebound back in 2021, when the economy was still reopening from Covid, as something he did. The rebound was already well underway in 2020. That's millions of jobs right there.
Second, there are two jobs surveys conducted each month, the Establishment survey and the Household survey. It is only the Establishment survey showing all these jobs being created in the last year or two. The Household jobs survey is showing something much different. The Establishment survey does this statistical "adjustment" known as the birth/death adjustment, that shows millions of jobs being created that aren't really there.
Economists and Wall Street analysts don't believe the Establishment numbers.
the gap between the always upward sloping (and market moving) Establishment Survey and the flatlined Household Survey, which hasn't made a new high since late 2023 and is back to where it was last summer, is now a stunning 9 million, the biggest on record!Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong agreed, and not only that, but she also agreed with our recurring contention that the Household Survey is far more accurate...
May’s jobs report presented contradictory views of the labor market, as we expected. The establishment survey shows robust gains in nonfarm payrolls — yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%. We believe the latter currently offers a closer approximation of reality than payrolls, as BLS’ model for estimating business births and deaths – which added 231,000 jobs to the nonfarm-payrolls print in May – is lagging the reality of surging establishment closures and falling business formation. We think the underlying pace of current job gains is likely less than 100,000 per month.
Third, even the BLS shows full time jobs dropping by more than 1 million and being replaced by part time jobs.
Consider this: the BLS reports that in May 2024, the US had 133.3 million full-time jobs and 28.0 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in May 2023 the US had 134.4 million full-time jobs, or more than a million jobs than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by more than 1.5 million since May 2023
Can Trump explain all this in an understandable way? It would require having a prepared, memorized response, quoting what people like Wong said, etc. That's not one of his strengths. He prefers to just speak off the cuff. If he just calls the jobs numbers "fake" the media and Biden will ridicule him and say how badly he lost the argument.
Polls need to be inline with crappants voter fraud machine.
They are going to cheat again in pretty much the same way they did last time. Why wouldn’t they?
Hillary’s polling was always ahead in the Trump matchup
plus Obama put all 17 intel agencies at the disposal of her campaign
(tax subsidized intel is there to protect Americans’ safety and security).
.
Charlie Kirk noted that the Fox “poll” cited Biden leading in rural America by 52-48. Under no circumstances is this possible. Remember, this is the same Fox News that threw Arizona to Senile the night of the election right after its polls closed which Senile “won” the state by 10,000 votes or far less than one percent of the total.
Hey, it’s Dementia Joe-mentum!
Oh, a faux snooze survey/poll. Polls are used to help sway the many clueless voters out there. And there are plenty. Polls can pound sand.
Poll conducted by Paul Ryan.
The fact that even 15% of voters would endorse a walking corpse should send alarm bells throughout the fruited plain.
His performance at the G7 must have really made an impression. /s
“More trust Biden to do a better job on the future of American democracy”
Talk about a very squishy, impossible-to-measure, feel-good nonsense metric.
The Democrats want a national popular vote, to abolish the Electoral College, to abolish the filibuster, to add new states, to expand the Supreme Court with Dems, excoriates the independent SCOTUS, to set term limits on SCOTUS Justices, uses unbridled lawfare against political opponents, uses the FBI to go after people at school board meetings and after doctors exposing the lies of tranny “care”.
Everything on that list is 100% anti-democratic - more accurately anti-Republic. But maybe one out of a thousand Americans know or understand what they are doing.
If “threat to democracy” arises, how would Trump respond?
CADAVER leads the proven successful former president!
WAKE UP, America. YOU ARE BEING PLAYED.
ANYONE who believes that the poopy diaper stumbling slurring TRAITOR PUPPET mannequin/CADAVER LEADS the successful and SHARP former president NEEDS THEIR HEAD EXAMINED.
America wants 15,000,000 MORE ILLEGALS including TERRORISTS, PEDOPHILES AND MURDERERS, along with TONS more fentanyl to KILL MOSTLY YOUNG WHITE AMERICANS as well as another 20-30% INFLATIONARY INCREASE over the course of a SECOND TERM for the DEMENTED TRAITOR WHO IS LIKELY TO START WORLD WAR III??
Riiigghht...
The only person who supports Joe Biden is EdD Dr. Jill Biden.
People "support" Biden for one or both of two reasons.
1) They hate Trump.
2) They support Democrat Marxoislamism, and they know they'll get it with any Democrat, Biden or his replacement.
[[If “threat to democracy” arises, how would Trump respond?]]
Throw whoever brings it up in prison of course
If hypothetically true that 50% are now in favor of Biden as President for four more years, then wherever we go there is a 1 in 2 chance we are next to a deluded idiot out of touch with reality and willing to sell out America to socialists.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
― George Carlin
and that was just sarcasm- biden is the one imprisoning his opponents
Its a FOX poll - Already bad, now worse
Baby Murdoch pays well for the “correct” result
Let’s see. Corporate news has a vested (financial) interest in people coming to their Websites or watching their TV programs. They are for-profit organizations and need to attract advertisement dollars. In a high profile election year like 2024, it’s in their best interest to vacillate back and forth on who is ahead in the polls. This affects continued interest, clicks and tuning in by the greatest number of people. Translation: it’s in corporate news best interest to skew polls right up to the election so as to maintain interest by the greatest number of people, so as to keep advertisers and the bottom line happy.
“Charlie Kirk noted that the Fox “poll” cited Biden leading in rural America by 52-48.”
Preposterous.
Ryan’s stink on this was my first thought as well.....polls have now ceased being what they where intended for and that’s been for a while now.
Many are now nothing more than a tool to sway voters to believe a narrative and affect a certain election outcome.
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