Why not?
Posted on 06/12/2024 7:15:25 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Former President Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of completing the greatest political comeback in modern American politics, an Economist model forecast Wednesday.
The model gave President Joe Biden an 83 percent chance of victory in 2020 four years ago.
The model is predicated on national polling and is updated daily with economic indicators. “To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” the Economist explained.”
Trump has consistently led Biden in the forecast since March, when the Economist began the simulation.
June 12 represents the largest spread between the two candidates. Trump sits at a 66 in 100 chance of victory, while Biden’s chance is only 33 in 100.
The model only gave an electoral college tie a less than 1 in 100 chance.
Trump also leads Biden in the six swing states the model tracks: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
It weighted Michigan (14 percent) and Pennsylvania (24 percent) as having the greatest chance of being the states that decide the election.
Trump’s projected margin of victory in Michigan and Pennsylvania is +1 and +2, respectively, according to the model.
The forecast is strong news for Trump, who maintained his lead over Biden after being convicted in a Manhattan courthouse.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
In the immortal words of LL Cool J, “Don’t Call It A Comeback!”
Summer is a looooooong season .....
Don’t believe it!
Campaign as though he was 10 million votes and 1000 mules behind.
And don't listen to the "They're just going to steal it again!" crybabies trying to depress turnout.
I still wonder what the impact is going to be if Trump is sitting in a jail cell for the remainder of the campaign.
Agreed.
But ALWAYS campaign as though overwhelmingly behind.
“Hillary has a 95% chance of winning the 2016 election…”
However you vote for Trump, just make sure you and everyone else you know that aren’t tired of winning gets out and does it!
Yep, believe nothing …we’ve been down this road before. Do y’all recall the red wave which never appeared instead it should’ve been called the blue wave. The only thing we can do is turn out in droves on November 5 and pray. Don’t believe the polls if you do do it at your own risk. Remember, we still have mailing ballots, the dominion voting machines, those crooked dishonest folk who will be counting the ballots and all the illegals who will be given ballots to vote. And we’re not even talking about the judicial corrupt benches have a pack with the DNC to deny any extend hours to keep the voting places open in case there’s a massive amount of people. It’s all fixed by now and ready to be rolled out. It’s all in the planning they know what they’re gonna do to drag FJB across the finish line. After all the CHIT, we have gone through these past three years. It is so incredibly unbelievable that Trump will win the presidency. We are dealing with demonic forces who will go to any the extent of doing a John Kennedy on president Trump. Remember, he’s their biggest threat to dismantle the DOJ and all those effin institutions in the DC swamp. They have to get rid of him, and you know they are capable of anything and everything. Please, Lord protect him and cover him with a hedge of protection!
The model gave President Joe Biden an 83 percent chance of victory in 2020 four years ago.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Trying to understand that.... So the Economist had insight into the depths of the steal in 2020 but they have determined that the gap is too big to be stolen this time?
Exactly.
Meanwhile, FReepers are butthurt over on this thread that dares to suggest that Republicans have a voter turnout problem. It's true! They do!
Get out and vote!
Ignore The Polls. Republicans Have A Major Voter Turnout Problem
FBI won’t let it happen.
I still contend that Trump actually won the 202o election, but that it was close enough for the steal to be successful.
Pennsylvania
Nothing else matters, if Trump wins that it is over.
He'll have to win a Reagan style landslide so the Democrats can't fraud their way to victory.
He has a 100% chance if he makes it, a 0% chance if he doesn’t.
If he does make it and he probably will, he’s going to be the greatest American ever. No one has been more harassed than Donald J Trump. He came out of nowhere politically nowhere and took on the biggest political organization. The United States had at that time. Donald just do it and you will be the greatest American that ever lives. I am a suck up
any time a Democrat phones it in, a Republican candidate needs to work harder. When a rat phones it in it means the results have already been determined. Obama in 2012, Biden in 2020. The only exception I could come up with is Cankles in 2016. Her election team didn’t take into consideration the hate factor.
I am sure results like that almost guarantee prison time in NY with no bond during appeal.
FJB through Merchan be like “campaign, now, mfer”.
Hope I am wrong...
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