Why I think the accurate forecaster predicting a Biden win is wrong

American Thinker ^ | 05/02/2024 | Andrea Widburg

[SeekAndFind]

I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden.

Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.

According to the Daily Mail:

A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November.

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.

He says the technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'

Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its [sic] still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.

[SeekAndFind]

All thirteen keys in favor of Joe Biden are as follows according to Allan Lichtman:

• Which party controls the House in the midterms
• Whether someone is challenging the incumbent in the primaries
• The fact that one of the candidates is the incumbent
• Whether there’s a significant third party
• Short-term economic prospects
• Long-term economic prospects
• Whether the incumbent brought about major changes in American policies
• Social unrest
• Scandal
• Major military and foreign policy failures
• Major military and foreign policy successes
• Incumbent’s charisma
• Challenger’s charisma

[SecondAmendment]

Lichtman also knows Trump is running against the DNC and the RNC.

[No name given]

What drugs is Allan Lichtman smoking?!

[griswold3]

Ever since I heard Bob Barr endorse Trump, I’ve had a eerie feeling the fix is in. Did Barr endorse to save his skin in the GOP when Trump loses? Why is Barr even out there? This does not add up.

[Carriage Hill]

Add-in massive voting fraud, corruption, on a scale that will dwarf 2020, and it downright worries/ scares me.

[Kriggerel]

The one, glaring flaw in Lichtman’s reasoning is that his model assumes a clean, above-the-board election. It doesn’t take into account scenarios, where an election is NOT clean and/or above-board.

[JJBookman]

-The Deep State

They will never allow Trump to win, NEVER!

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Ever since I heard Bob Barr endorse Trump, I’ve had a eerie feeling the fix is in.

Aren’t you confusing Bill with Bob?

[BradyLS]

Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.

Emphasis added. ...Winning the popular vote does not determine the winner of the presidential election. Winning the Electoral College does. Is Lichtman predicting a sweep there, too?

[SeekAndFind]

RE: The one, glaring flaw in Lichtman’s reasoning is that his model assumes a clean, above-the-board election.

If so (that is the election WON’T be clean), then his prediction will be EVEN MORE CORRECT.

[griswold3]

Sorry. I stand corrected. Bill Barr, former Attorney General during the Trump Administration. Not the guy from Georgia.

[combat_boots]

There’s a story about an illegal getting a voter registration form from Medicaid.

That’s federal.

[Jamestown1630]

Where did you see that story?

[FlingWingFlyer]

Lichtman is a dick. He has all the markings of a sissy boy. Anybody who has been paying attention to what has been going on the past 2 years in this country understands that the bastards on the far left are about to steal another “election” with 20 million new fraudulent ballots stuffed in their ballot dumpsters by 20 million new azho voters who can’t even speaka da English.

[Political Junkie Too]

It's understandable. Bob Bobb did write an editorial last week coming out against the New York lawfare case against President Trump.

-PJ

[brookwood]

The reason Lichtman “may” be wrong is Biden is losing by 9 points in a CNN poll

Buried on page 24 of this poll.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24623637/cnn-poll-april-28-2024.pdf

[Ge0ffrey]

Trump is also in many ways the incumbent.

[TexasFreeper2009]

This election is unlike any other of our lifetime. Both candidates are incumbents. People have already made up their minds about which presidency they prefer.

No Trump supporter is suddenly going to flip to Biden between now and election day with everyone attacking them and calling them stupid, ignorant fools for supporting Trump.

Biden is running about 7 points behind where he was in 2020, and contrary to opinion most state polling averages were pretty close in 2020 with Biden leading in the critical states for basically the entire race and then winning them by about what he had been polling on average. The exact opposite is true this time, it is Trump who is consistently polling ahead of Biden in the key swing states.

I honestly don’t think anything can save Biden from defeat.

[combat_boots]

Example

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/gov-mcmaster-calls-for-investigation-voter-registration-forms-allegedly-given-to-non-citizens-in-sc/ar-AA1o30cl