Posted on 04/05/2024 10:16:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A funny thing happened on the way to our all-electric future: reality.
I've written at length in recent weeks about Presidentish Joe Biden's hamfisted and wrongheaded EPA rules meant to force everybody into electric vehicles, whether EVs suit their needs or not. But maybe nothing compares to Oliver Price's headline on Wednesday, asking, "Is this the end of the EV?"
Well, no. But we're still far, far away from the end of dino-burning engines — and likely to stay that way for far longer than the grifters in the EV industry and the autocrats in Washington (and several states, too) would have you believe.
After reading tens of thousands of words about our "necessary transition" to EVs and writing a few thousand of my own, I thought maybe I'd do some even deeper digging. Turns out, I was shocked by what I found.
In a good way.
That Price headline I mentioned above goes on a bit longer. The rest of it reads, "As Tesla and BYD's car sales plummet and Apple pulls the plug on its e-car project, has the boom in electric vehicles finally short-circuited?"
But there's a big difference between "slower growth," which is where EV sales have been for the last year or so, and "the end of the EV," which seems unlikely in the extreme.
So what is the truth? What happens to EV sales in a market as big and as varied as the United States, with our widely different needs and wants, complicated by various federal and state mandates and incentives?
Would you believe that, even with Presidentish Joe Biden's Green New Deal Lite money and EPA mandates, EV adoption might top out at less than 30% of the new car market? Or that it could be as low as just 13%?
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
We’re going to have to step back...Remember...th industry started with electric and we went to gas for a reason...
And that’s from a gummint agency?!
Inevitable?......the hell you say.
“We’re going to have to step back...Remember...th industry started with electric and we went to gas for a reason...”
Back then when all of a sudden, right up from the ground there Well, there came a bubblin’ crude
We’ve now been on the “EVs are taking over mantra” or about 2 decades. So, as the EV market ‘matures’...
will the first-time owners of EVs go back for a second EV purchase? Likely not, since, once burned is enough.
And, EV purchases does not indicate how many were taken back before even one year of use. When trading in a used EV for a new car, what will the depreciation have been for that EV?
The whole story has not been told, and there are many issues that need to be brought up before any dealer tries to sell those clunkers.
The real problem with electrics is today’s batteries, which are ill-suited for the purpose. If we had a real battery breakthrough that offered a battery without all of the disadvantages of current batteries, electrics might make sense.
I keep checking the yard...nope...all green...
Inevitable like that?
If that happens, you can be sure that an administration such as the current one will squash the development of said battery via EPA etc. regulation so as to make them unaffordable or unavailable.
After all, getting us slaves into EVs versus ICE cars in NOT the goal.
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
The “transition” is making personal transportation too expensive for the average person.
That chart is misleading. It probably doesn’t account for government attempts to forcibly get people to give up ICE vehicles. So the market share of EVs as a percentage of new car sales will likely be larger, say 40%. Many people will give up on buying cars in the near future, due to exorbitant costs and regulations on usage. The government wants us to give up ownership of private vehicles, no matter whether they are ICE or EV.
You gotta shoot a hole in the ground with a .770 calibre flintlock ...
even if batteries weren’t in their miserable state of lousy energy density compared to petroleum and even if they could be charged in 10 minutes. EVs still could not take the place of ICE vehicles for the simple reason that the electric capacity to to provide that much energy DOES NOT EXIST.
As an example let’s suppose that the battery fairy develops a magic battery that holds 100 kwh and takes 10 minutes to charge. How much demand power is that? 10 minutes is 1/6th of an hour so that is 600 kw. Now suppose that rather than a single charging point you have 10 charging points in a charging station and because there are going to be a lot of these magic battery vehicles you need about 50 stations in a typical midsized urban area. This is 600*10*50 = 300,000 Kilowatts capacity or 300 megawats. The full output of an average commercial electrical generation nuclear reactor is 880 megawatts. So you’re going to need about 1 full sized nuclear reactor for every three midsized towns. And the solar wind fantasy is not going to make a fart in a hurricane’s worth of impact on this demand. The USA doesn’t have a couple of hundred PWRs sitting around idle just in case some miracle that violates the laws of physics and chemistry in the battery industry happens. These have to be built and the lead time for a nuclear plant is roughly 15 years.
The US tried that back in 1975. Remember the electric Citicar? The car lots on S. Memorial Drive in Tulsa had lots of them back then. Never saw one in operation anywhere.
https://motor.elpais.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/citicar.jpg
Freedom comes with being able to travel at will. The Democrat/communists think we will just smile and say “Sure I’ll drive a lawn mower to work - no problem,” but we won’t. PERIOD.
Excellent layout of the situation, thanks.
The Nissan Tama back in 1947. Tama named for the region of Japan, available in both electric and gasoline versions. Gasoline was rationed and in short supply, people used the electric version until gasoline was again readily available. The Tama is the predecessor of today's Nissan Leaf.
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