Posted on 02/26/2024 7:42:01 PM PST by DoodleBob
I’ve been taking the under on Nikki Haley for several weeks now and I’ve been wrong every time. So I looked under the hood on the South Carolina results and what I see is a signal that Trump is weaker than he looks.
Let’s start with the exit polls.
Haley kept it close: independent voters made up 22 percent of the electorate and she won them 62-37. South Carolina is an open primary, so this was a case of independents showing up to vote against Trump in a meaningless contest. That’s bad news for him.
Among people who thought the economy was either “good” (Haley +73) or “not so good” (Haley +1) Haley fought Trump to better than a draw.
This matters because Biden’s theory of the case is that the economy is good and people are going to recognize that. If Biden can even get voters to “ehhh, the economy is not so good,” suddenly voters are much less receptive to Trump.
Haley beat Trump by +9 with voters with a college degree. That’s expected, but still a point of weakness.
Not expected: Among married Republicans Trump was only +3. In recent elections, married voters have been a huge area of strength for Republicans—Trump was +7 among marrieds in 2020. South Carolina shows us that half of a core Republican bloc is turning out to vote against Trump even when his opponent has no chance of winning. Not great for him.
But it keeps getting worse: Nearly a third of the voters said that Trump isn’t fit to serve as president and Haley won them by Saddam Hussein numbers.
Last data point, which is something I’ve been fixated on since I did The Focus Group a couple weeks ago: Among voters who believe that Trump lost in 2020, his numbers are ghastly.
Important to note: 36 percent of the electorate said that yes, Biden won fair and square. And with those people, Haley was +64.1
I am growing convinced that forcing Trump to claim that he actually won in 2020—and belaboring that point over and over and over again—is a key to victory in 2024. When people see Trump lying about something they know isn’t true, it pits him against them, makes the relationship between Trump and the voter adversarial. The voters say, “Wait a minute, this guy is trying to scam me.”
And Trump is trapped because he’s so committed to the Big Lie that he can’t back down from it now.
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Side note: Long time readers know that I don’t do hopeium here. I might be the most fatalistic guy at The Bulwark. But I’m realistic, too, and the numbers here demonstrate very clearly that Trump has a couple of giant soft spots that can be exploited with voters.
If you want measured analysis—not cheerleading, but not doomscrolling either—then you should be with us this election. We don’t play both-sides games. We don’t platform bad actors. We see the world clearly and we fight for liberal democracy. That’s the job.
Come ride with us.
New Hampshire has a lot going for it these days:
—No state income tax
—Great job market since the southern part of the state is within commuting distance of Boston suburban and exurban high tech employers
—Housing prices have skyrocketed—if you got in twenty years ago you are feeling rich
—Whitopia—1.5% and in most of the wealthier suburbs it is close to zero—and crime rates are close to zero
Biggest negatives:
—The winters are nasty
—Traffic can be tough if you are commuting to MA during rush hour or going to the beaches in the summer
What is fascinating about all the primaries so far is that the Registered Republican/Independent Leaning Republican vote has been 75-25 President Trump in all states, including South Carolina.
This is also what the national numbers look like.
Republicans around the country seem to be on the same wavelength—a new phenomenon that the mass media seems to have missed so far.
The 60-40 nonsense has been Democrats and Democratic/Independents voting for Haley.
I’m hoping (and expecting) the true independents to move to Trump and the “independents” counted in the Republican primaries are just re-registered Dems.
Haley’s losing her way to victory one state at a time! Why if she keeps this up, she may only lose the last few states by less than 20 points!
What do the voting machines say? And there is no way Biden allows Trump to run. None. Not just Biden and his rotten demons, but the whole rino establishment. The entire federal government collapses if they are ever exposed.
McCain
Cheney
Graham (off and on)
Romney
Christie
Haley
All Democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it.
Haley is the last in a long line of RINOs, and she’s not
bashful about spewing out her beliefs and lying like the
democrats she’s too embarrassed to be honest and join.
So not one democrat voted for the hatchet faced Bit@h? Everyone of them was from independents ,whatever.
Trump won my county in 2016 and 2020. He will it again along with the Presidency in 2024! If the Democrats win ,we are finished as a free nation.
Haley lost her home state. No matter how they try to spin it.
So are these people going to vote for Biden.
Biden?
“...and we fight for liberal democracy. That’s our job.”
Thanks Johnathan, but no thanks.
Very much agree with you.
Wasn’t the SC primary an open primary? So ‘Rats could vote for Nookie Haley and hurt Trump?
Author is desperate, and “protesteth too much”. He knows the score.
“things may go to Hell under him.”
You mean like they did in his first term? /s
Until Fauci Flu was released to bugger up an election, America was doing great under Trump. Why would things “go to Hell under him” this time? The only situation I can see that would make that happen is if he chose NOT to wreak revenge and justice on so many people.
I know a Democrat who lives on Hilton Head (ex of NYC) who always votes in the Republican primary. He says whoever the Dems choose is alright with him so he votes in the Republican primary for the most liberal candidate.
I saw the sarcasm tag, as if I am denigrating Trump.
If you read my whole post, you should see that I am making a factual statement-you cannot predict the future, and I cannot predict the future. We don’t know what will happen if Trump is elected.
Circumstances may be beyond his control, or even anyone’s control, as much damage as has been done since 2021.
My point is, Trump may or may not be able to fix things. But the people who enabled 2021 definitely will NOT fix things.
Do you disagree?
“the people who enabled 2021 definitely will NOT fix things.
Do you disagree?”
I don’t disagree with that. Trump is too naive about people, and trusts too easily. He needs a few advisors with strong BS meters.
Those were RATs doing as directed. Not independents.
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