Posted on 01/11/2023 9:18:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Yesterday the Wall Street Journal had a story about a topic I’ve covered before, the hollowing out of American cities as a result of changes brought on by the pandemic. One symptom of those changes is the decline of mass transit in major cities on both coasts.
While offices have largely reopened and travel has resumed, many commuters are only coming in a few days a week. That shift has left subways, buses and commuter trains operating at well below capacity—particularly on Mondays and Fridays…
The ridership drop also has fueled an increase in transit crime, which in turn has pushed away more riders.
“The more you lose a ridership base, the more difficult it becomes to maintain a level of service that people are used to,” said P.S. Sriraj, director of the Urban Transportation Center at the University of Illinois, Chicago. “It’s becoming a vicious cycle.”…
New York’s subway system has regained about two-thirds of its pre-pandemic ridership with about 91 million trips in November, according to the MTA. But that is about 50 million fewer rides than in November 2019. Officials worry usage has stalled out at that level.
In San Francisco, the Bay Area Rapid Transit, or BART, recorded 3.7 million trips in November—a little more than one-third of the ridership before Covid.
For the moment, these subway systems are surviving on federal money (about $69 billion) which was doled out in 2020 and 2021 as part of various COVID response bills. But that money is running out now and will be cone in another couple years. Even before that happens some system like the MTA are running a deficit. Very soon these big cities will have to make some choices about how many trains and how large a system they can continue to operate given the current ridership.
For BART, federal funds are expected to run out in 2025, after which it projects a budget gap of more than $200 million. The authority plans to seek a new funding stream. Without it, the shortfall could trigger service reductions. One planning document shows BART would need to cut the number of train lines to three, from the current five, to break even.
Cutting lines and reducing the number of trains will help balance budgets temporarily but the reason administrators haven’t taken these steps yet is because they know it will also result in fewer riders. It’s the vicious cycle again which will only prompt the need for further cuts.
Some cities are considering alternative funding mechanisms. In New York there’s a new congestion tax being aimed at drivers in Manhattan who want to go south of Central Park. In Washington, DC the city will be offering free bus rides starting next summer in hopes of bringing ridership back up. It may work long term but in the short term DC is looking at spending $42 million to cover the costs.
The other problem driving the decline in ridership is crime and, in particular, homelessness. The MTA in New York surveyed riders and found that 60% said they were riding less because of fear of crime.
Lori Romeo, a lawyer who lives in Brooklyn and works in downtown Manhattan, said she rarely goes to her office anymore and takes an express bus instead of the subway when she does.
“The homeless are sad, but the floridly psychotic and dangerous make going into Manhattan a challenging experience,” she said.
One of the more depressing statistics in the recently released crime figures in New York City was that crime on the subways was up 30% this year despite an expensive effort ($20 million per month) to reduce it. It’s not all bad news though. In Chicago, mass transit crime has started to decline for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
On the trains, crime and arrest trends have troubled some riders, like Sam Bergman, 22. He now avoids taking the train after becoming entangled in what looked to him like a mugging that spilled over into the Red Line car he was riding in one evening at the end of October.
What seemed like a fight in the next train car burst through the emergency exit door into his car, Bergman said. One person looked clearly beaten up, and seemed to be trying to call 911. In the tumult, Bergman and his girlfriend got shoved into a corner of the car, but managed to avoid getting hit, he said.
None of these problems are going away anytime soon. Office workers will continue working from home and the homeless will continue using the trains as a moving bedroom and sometimes bathroom. It’s hard to see how the situation that existed pre-pandemic is ever going to return. Instead we’re headed for a new normal, one where mass transit and retail downtown are less important than they used to be.
In 2000 in Florida, Nader won 97000 votes, almost all of which would otherwise have gone to Gore. Bush won Florida by a few hundred votes, and was elected by a four electoral vote majority. it would be entirely rational and historically accurate to say that Bush’s victory was made possible by the Nader third party candidacy.
Dayum you’re old!! Lol... Kent State?? We’re you around there when the shooting occured? CSNY song Ohio comes to mind!!
Deep State doesn’t care.
It isn’t about transporting customers.
It’s about growing the bureaucracy.
Those people will have jobs whether they have one person on a bus or 20.
Transferred west coast oregon
Spot on. Quote of the day. On the occasions when I've been had to ride an urban bus, the drivers are as bad as the passengers. They are insolent and sullen. Don't dare ask them a question. The language they speak is incomprehensible to English speakers.
One of these days you'll tell your grandchildren about the days when you could actually get information about anything from Google. lol
PS....I rode the 7 line daily from '70 to '99...John Rocker was 100% right!
It’s happening here, too. Ironically, the local transit agency announced just last week that they were cutting schedules and conceded that ridership was absent to justify the BRT schedules.
Funny: That’s what the critics - including yours truly - said before the billions were expended...despite their colorful charts.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/passenger-caught-urinating-on-nyc-subway-as-commuters-seem-unfazed/
https://nypost.com/2022/05/22/man-shot-and-killed-on-nyc-subway-in-broad-daylight-cops/
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/frank-james-pleads-guilty-mass-shooting-new-york-subway
https://abcnews.go.com/WN/video-captures-philadelphia-bus-shooting/story?id=14242970
I had a “64 Corvair Spyder. Lots of good times with it. I would have loved taking Ralph on a ride.
Being stabbed, mugged, sucker punched and pushed from behind onto active tracks to your death just don’t have the appeal they once did.
All of that is by design - the Curley Effect. Run off the taxpayers and decent citizens, and Dems establish a Detroit-style deathgrip on the politics of a city. Results in a further spiral of leftism to destruction.
If you’re, say, China and want to destroy America, it’s easy. Just get Democrats elected and they’ll do it for you.
Nader may have done what Mayor Pete did. Have a car take him a block away from his destination, then hop on a bicycle. Except Ralph was smart enough to not get caught.
What became unsustaineble as an economic enterprise without direct taxpayer subsidies is even more so now because (1) fare revenues charged did not ever sustain it, anywhere, and (2) ridership and fare revenues are down, maybe permanently in some places, increasing “mass transit” dependence on taxpayer subsidies.
I live in a college town next to a bus route. Before Covid, the buses were always packed during the morning and afternoon commutes. For 2 years that bus route had almost no passengers. It is not much better now. My guess is everybody is still working from home or driving in. Morning road traffic has been back to normal for quite some time.
COVID coaches.
Why would anyone get into one of those?
Try the DART trains in Dallas sometime pal.
Dude three seats behind me fires up a blunt every dammed trip and when someone asks him to stop, shows a pistol.
Get on an early morning train in Rowlett or Plano (ends of the line) and you are going have sleepers and a reek that will make you vomit.
I have not ridden the rolling hive of scum and villainy often since 3/2020 and after my last trip 3 months ago while my car was getting serviced, I shall not again.
This is DALLAS sir — I can only imagine what my old Blue Line in LA I rode in the 2000’s looks like now or the SFO to Fremont route on the BART I rode in the 90’s.
Where do you live and when was the last time you rode a light rail train from a ‘burb to a downtown?
But ‘free bus rides’ will certainly help the situation...
Same here in NYC. Before Covid, the trains and buses that I rode were packed. For 2 years they were empty; I always had plenty of seats, even during the proverbial rush hour.
Now they're filling up again -- however, mostly with immigrants or SJW types. Or bums sleeping on the seats or mumbling to themselves (or stinking up the cars!).
Few professionals, even blue-collar, or Wall Street types. Everyone looks like they're dressed for the beach or laundry room. Many of the wealthy whites fled permanently; they are presumably working remotely or driving in.
The trains have gotten so depressing. I feel like I'm traveling in a 3rd World country.
Mass transit worked 60 years ago because the people who designed it also used it. Today you've got 'elites' (based on sexual kink, pigmentation, and ideology) designing transportation for 'others'... and it's crap.
If mass transit was designed for use by the designers it would include a way to exclude psychopaths.
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