Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
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Hebert's Boxes
now moving east of due north per key west radar
I expect a decent jump SE with the track with the next update here soon
also since it will hit land sooner on this track, the shear/dry air wont have as much time to weaken it
Cape Coral/ FT Meyers may get the huge surge instead of Tampa
Depending how much further south it is, less storm surge in Tampa Bay. As cyclonic storms rotate counter clockwise, the best case scenario is always to be west (left) side of the center of the storm.
If the whatever-it-is holds, the storm center should make landfall south of earlier forecast solutions. Anyhow, our plans to evacuate have not changed at this time.
Yes, it’s feeling like the first hint of Fall today in my area...nice!
What is flattening the circulation on the north side?
It’s still a day and half before landfall so these wobbling shifts are expected as far as the models go.
If Ian takes a right turn it will not interact with that cold front sheer... and why some saying it could be a Cat4 when it lands. That’s why the track is so important.
Two Midwest high pressures that blew through here yesterday?
The winds were blowing our lawn furniture around!
That was my first thought when I heard Venice mentioned. It may have to do with that front moving down from the north. The storm track could very well change again to hit even further south, if it follows it's current patterns of behavior. We'll be finding out in the next 36 hours.
STORM INFO AND RESOURCES:
FIND YOUR EVACUATION ZONE: https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking...
FIND SANDBAGS IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA: https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking...
FLORIDA SCHOOL CLOSURES AND CANCELLATIONS: https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking...
WHAT TO HAVE IN YOUR HURRICANE KIT: https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking...
Best wishes to you through the storm.
It’s still a day and half before landfall so these wobbling shifts are expected as far as the models go.
each 6 hr model suite the past 24-36 hours had seen a SE shift...and the HNC in their updates also shifted SE
the 12z suite continued that trend
Here is W. PA I woke to see a couple of my deck plants toppled over and the deck drenched. First ever had plants go over so apparently a storm happened overnight.
Usually I’m on top of the weather but have been following Ian and wasn’t paying attention to local weather! Ha!
That's an excellent map. Thanks.
Good luck to everyone in the path.
And to you. And many thanks for your yeoman's work on keeping us all informed about these things.
also...models have a stripe of 12-20 inches of rain on the NW side and it slows over FL..this band has also been shifting SE over time and now may be from Tampa to Orlando
Sanibel to get big overwash, it looks like.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_mid
Me too.
Beautiful clear, cool fall day.
My AC is in shock.
Meant to post this map.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?inundation#contents
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