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Hurricane Ian
NHC/NOAA ^ | 23 September 2022 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.


Mash image to enlarge

Public Advisories

NHC Discussion

Buoy Data

Tropical Tidbits


Hebert's Boxes


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricaneian; ian; nautinurse; officialianthread; tropical; tropicalstorm; uhoh; weather
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To: caww

We have a pond in back of our house……it’s full and we’re expecting 6 to 10” of rain


1,021 posted on 09/27/2022 4:08:23 PM PDT by Guenevere (“If the foundations are destroyed, what can the righteous do?”)
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To: Guenevere

Never poke the storm in eye with your cursor. You’ll only make it mad.


1,022 posted on 09/27/2022 4:12:10 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

RE: How many billion times did the left blame this on climate change so far? 4 or 5 billion?

Yes, and soon “and of those -——of them died from Covid.”


1,023 posted on 09/27/2022 4:13:18 PM PDT by frank ballenger (You have summoned up a thundercloud. You're gonna hear from me. Anthem by Leonard Cohen)
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To: NautiNurse

000
WTNT64 KNHC 272256
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky


1,024 posted on 09/27/2022 4:14:18 PM PDT by shield (2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: NautiNurse

Enjoy your family!


1,025 posted on 09/27/2022 4:19:22 PM PDT by Guenevere (“If the foundations are destroyed, what can the righteous do?”)
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To: shield

I see that the pressure has dropped some. From 952MB down to 947MB.


1,026 posted on 09/27/2022 4:25:22 PM PDT by Parley Baer (WI)
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To: caww

Yikes. Scary to see the Cape from that angle. We went through Hurricane Sandy in the Jersey shore area. Retired to Cape Coral 7 years ago.


1,027 posted on 09/27/2022 4:27:06 PM PDT by jersey117
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To: All

getting interesting in the Keys...

Hurricane Ian approaches Florida: key west

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1spV0MmzpQ4


1,028 posted on 09/27/2022 4:30:38 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (Ec 1:2 The rest is, Vanity of vanities..vanity of vanities!All is vanity.)
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To: NautiNurse

The drawback to this plan is that some hotel employees may not be able to get to work, and some deliveries may not get delivered. So plan to eat all the canned food the hotel has on hand, and reuse towels for as long as it takes. I learned this in New Orleans for 5 days stuck in the Westin hotel with 2 children under the age of 2, during Hurricane Georges


1,029 posted on 09/27/2022 4:40:21 PM PDT by Cheesehead in Texas
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To: shield

What’s the chances of this thing changing it’s mind and hitting Tampa?


1,030 posted on 09/27/2022 4:42:24 PM PDT by pnz1 ("These people have gone stone-cold crazy")
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To: SE Mom

Got chocolate?


1,031 posted on 09/27/2022 4:45:17 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: pnz1

I believe the trough is keeping Ian south of Tampa. Time will tell.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=wv_mid


1,032 posted on 09/27/2022 4:45:19 PM PDT by shield (2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: Cheesehead in Texas

I packed fresh cooked meals and shelf-stable foods. My cousin already made guacamole with my avocados. Oh, and I baked cookies this morning. No worries.


1,033 posted on 09/27/2022 4:47:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: jersey117

Look here!.....Key West Harbor Webcam......look beyond lights to the whitecaps rolling high - live stream - kicking up the ocean!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2UbfQB8Cjs


1,034 posted on 09/27/2022 4:47:47 PM PDT by caww (O death, when you seized my Lord, you lost your grip on me......Augustine)
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To: CatHerd

Kicking it up in Key West Harbor - live cam

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2UbfQB8Cjs


1,035 posted on 09/27/2022 4:49:36 PM PDT by caww (O death, when you seized my Lord, you lost your grip on me......Augustine)
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To: CatHerd

BTW the Key West live cam has sound.....I listened for a bit and you can actually hear the winds pick up and the howling.


1,036 posted on 09/27/2022 4:52:53 PM PDT by caww (O death, when you seized my Lord, you lost your grip on me......Augustine)
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To: caww

St. Augustine live cam with sound

Been checking it all day - waves have now incrased in speed and more frequent...lots more white caps

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6eZVkUKFxo


1,037 posted on 09/27/2022 4:56:27 PM PDT by caww (O death, when you seized my Lord, you lost your grip on me......Augustine)
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To: NautiNurse

Well, if’n y’all skate, us Yankees will hang onto our Cabo Wabo cactus juice and just donate Jaeger.


1,038 posted on 09/27/2022 5:03:24 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: shield

000
WTNT34 KNHC 272352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...24.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS


CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK


At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west
of the Florida Keys later tonight, and approach the west coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected tonight through
Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as
an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported at the Key West International Airport and the Key West
Naval Air Station during the last hour. A National Data Buoy
Center Site near Sombrero Key recently reported a sustained wind of
43 mph (69 km/h). The Florida Keys Marathon International Airport
just reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary’s River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia
and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY


Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky/Bucci


1,039 posted on 09/27/2022 5:14:25 PM PDT by shield (2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: jeffers

Oh my goodness, of course! NautiNurse and I were discussing our chocolate stash the other day. Was thinking about you this afternoon.

Have to work at the hospital until noon- sending us home early. My Team A years are done!


1,040 posted on 09/27/2022 5:14:46 PM PDT by SE Mom
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