Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Mash image to enlarge
Hebert's Boxes
We have a pond in back of our house……it’s full and we’re expecting 6 to 10” of rain
Never poke the storm in eye with your cursor. You’ll only make it mad.
RE: How many billion times did the left blame this on climate change so far? 4 or 5 billion?
Yes, and soon “and of those -——of them died from Covid.”
000
WTNT64 KNHC 272256
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).
During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
Enjoy your family!
I see that the pressure has dropped some. From 952MB down to 947MB.
Yikes. Scary to see the Cape from that angle. We went through Hurricane Sandy in the Jersey shore area. Retired to Cape Coral 7 years ago.
getting interesting in the Keys...
Hurricane Ian approaches Florida: key west
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1spV0MmzpQ4
The drawback to this plan is that some hotel employees may not be able to get to work, and some deliveries may not get delivered. So plan to eat all the canned food the hotel has on hand, and reuse towels for as long as it takes. I learned this in New Orleans for 5 days stuck in the Westin hotel with 2 children under the age of 2, during Hurricane Georges
What’s the chances of this thing changing it’s mind and hitting Tampa?
Got chocolate?
I believe the trough is keeping Ian south of Tampa. Time will tell.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=wv_mid
I packed fresh cooked meals and shelf-stable foods. My cousin already made guacamole with my avocados. Oh, and I baked cookies this morning. No worries.
Look here!.....Key West Harbor Webcam......look beyond lights to the whitecaps rolling high - live stream - kicking up the ocean!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2UbfQB8Cjs
BTW the Key West live cam has sound.....I listened for a bit and you can actually hear the winds pick up and the howling.
St. Augustine live cam with sound
Been checking it all day - waves have now incrased in speed and more frequent...lots more white caps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6eZVkUKFxo
Well, if’n y’all skate, us Yankees will hang onto our Cabo Wabo cactus juice and just donate Jaeger.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 272352
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected tonight through
Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as
an extremely dangerous major hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported at the Key West International Airport and the Key West
Naval Air Station during the last hour. A National Data Buoy
Center Site near Sombrero Key recently reported a sustained wind of
43 mph (69 km/h). The Florida Keys Marathon International Airport
just reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.96 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary’s River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia
and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:
* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.
Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky/Bucci
Oh my goodness, of course! NautiNurse and I were discussing our chocolate stash the other day. Was thinking about you this afternoon.
Have to work at the hospital until noon- sending us home early. My Team A years are done!
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