Posted on 09/10/2022 9:56:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
As Ed Morrisey pointed out this morning, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east has been moving faster than anyone expected, including obviously the Russians. A couple of days ago, Ukrainian forces retook the town of Balakliia and another small town called Volokhiv Yar. From there they moved east and took control of Kupyansk.
Ukrainian troops already in Kupyansk.
Russians basically offered no resistance.
pic.twitter.com/4c2UqjEk1w— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 10, 2022
That was a significant win because it meant Ukraine was in control of the rail lines which supplied Russian outposts to the south, in particular Izyum. Here’s a crude map showing the location of Kupyansk and Izyum.
I tweeted this map a few days ago. Kupyansk is the yellow circle, and Izyum the red circle. By taking K the Ukr cut off the logistics to Izyum making it undefendable.
pic.twitter.com/ZCEwdRWQ8C— Dr Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) September 10, 2022
Saturday, Ukrainian forces surrounded and retook Izyum.
Ukrainian special forces pictured on the outskirts of Izium…🇺🇦
pic.twitter.com/RpIlqypZMX— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) September 10, 2022
Ed noted in an update to his story earlier that Izyum had been liberated and only 24 hours after Russia claimed it was sending reinforcements to the area it reversed course and claimed it was “regrouping” its forces to the south. Regrouping in this case means running away as quickly as possible. Here’s the video of the Russian announcement.
This is the russian MoD acknowledging the withdrawal from Kharkiv and the strategically important cities of Izyum & Kupyansk. The straight face during the lie of ‘regrouping of forces’ is priceless. pic.twitter.com/yAKpd32s72
— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) September 10, 2022
This is already being widely mocked. Same clip but with a different background.
You don’t need translation here pic.twitter.com/9fRVMiYXlx
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 10, 2022
The Post has a story up about all of the developments.
As the advancing Ukrainian troops regained lost territory with shocking speed, liberating the town of Balakliya and raising their blue-and-yellow flag over the city of Izyum, jubilant Ukrainians and officials in Kyiv and Western capitals indulged in a daring hope: maybe the grinding, stalemated war was swinging their way…
The pullout from Izyum, which Russia had used as a resupply hub for its offensive through the eastern Donbas region, marked one of the biggest setbacks for Russia since its troops rolled into Ukraine in February.
With Russian troops out of Izyum, Russia’s ability to fulfill its objective of seizing the entirety of the Donbas region — the only publicly declared goal of Putin’s proclaimed “special military operation” — is now in doubt, said Kirill Mikhailov, a Kyiv-based analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian military research group.
Izyum is an important command and supply hub for Russia’s northern front and Russia’s only major bridgehead on the right bank of the Donets River, he said, and losing it would eliminate an entire front — the northern front — in its efforts to conquer Donetsk.
One sure sign of how badly things are going for Russia is how spitting mad Russian nationalists have become over these defeats.
“A major defeat,” Igor Girkin, a hard-line former commander of separatists in Ukraine, lamented in a pro-Russian military Telegram channel…
Girkin complained bitterly about extravagant celebrations for City Day in Moscow, where Putin visited a new martial arts center and presided over the openings of a section of new highway and a giant, 460-foot tall Ferris wheel called the Moscow Sun.
Here’s Putin opening the Ferris wheel while his army is in retreat.
While the #Russian army "heroically" retreats from the #Kharkiv region, Putin opens a Ferris wheel in #Moscow.
The tsar simply has more important things to do. pic.twitter.com/RI9ng9y8TH
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 10, 2022
And, in what seems like a perfect metaphor for the day, the Ferris wheel apparently broke down a few hours later.
The Ferris Wheel that Putin opened in Moscow this morning? It’s already broken…
— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) September 10, 2022
There’s definitely going to be a lot of pressure mounting on Putin after all of these sweeping victories and Russian retreats. The question becomes what will a desperate Putin do now that his invasion is looking like an embarrassment? Open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander suggests he could actually become more dangerous than before.
At this time the Russian military has just about run out of options in regards to throwing new forces at this growing hole in an attempt to stop the offensive.
At this point even a "mobilization" won't do anything to help, that takes time and this is moving too fast.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
He could ramp up the economic war on Europe which he’s been fighting by cutting of the gas supply.
Russia is responsible for supplying 20% of Europe's natural Uranium and 26% of their enrichment services. This will have a compounding effect on the already high energy prices.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
Both of these options are economically nuclear options, as they will also have a large impact on Russia, but Putin is running very low on options.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
The bottom line is that he’s not going to admit defeat. He’s going to find some way to up the stakes after what is shaping up to be a very bad weekend.
Personally, I see Russia as more dangerous at this moment than any time in the last 7 months. They are cornered, crippled both militarily and economically and running very low on options.
This won't end with Putin just graciously accepting defeat.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022
Two clips to wrap this up. First, another Russian intercept giving some idea of what it was like to be on the other side of the Ukrainian couteroffensive.
Second, this collection of clips from Russian TV gives you an idea of how the nationalists are responding to the bad news. This clip ends with Putin’s top propagandist, TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, reminding the audience that Stalin said those who panic should be shot.
Russian state TV mouthpieces–big couch potato imperialist supporters of Putin’s “special operations” against Ukraine–are demoralized and in a state of panic.
When Solovyov ends by quoting Josef Stalin: “The ones who panic should be shot,” you know they realize this is serious. https://t.co/nLeJfyrDxq
— Thomas Wood 🌊 (@twoodiac) September 10, 2022
Too much reliance on militias and mercenaries. Not enough regular troops.
Probably, some sort of false flag is next, to persuade the Duma that a full scale Russian army mobilization is needed. Escalation and WW3 will follow.
Hey, remember how you attempted to troll me by copying and pasting my post about Ukraine inevitably taking Izyum?
How do you feel now, CarolinaPutinfan?
Russia does not have the Officer Corp or equipment for full mobilization. Russia kept the WW2 army that relies on full mobilization to win, but dismantled the infrastructure necessary to actually use it. This is the reason why they’ve been fully mobilizing only in Donetsk, and giving these “troops” WW2 era weaponry and uniforms before sending them to get chopped up.
What he did instead has doomed him. And it will never get better, now that the U.S. military complex has found its replacement for the lost Afghanistan cash flow.
Izyum was captured by the Russians in the beginning of the war.
It was the center of the grouping of the main Russian forces for most of the war.
Moskals hoped and tried main offensive from there to surround Ukrainian forces on the East.
For months, Izyum was the center of major fights as Moskals tried one offensive after another, all repulsed by Ukraine defenses.
It is true that Moskals eventually seemed to give up and redeploy some of their forces elsewhere.
But they still kept major forces there and they never planned to give Izyum back.
Looks like they lost them now.
Let us go and beat them Moskals!
Too late for that. Morale is gone and even state tv watching Russians stopped believing Putin’s lies
If there’s a coup and Medvedev takes charge, he’s become even more hardline anti-NATO than Pooty. Interesting times indeed.
The entire Russian strategy seems to have been based on a planned coup that failed. They were supposed to be “liberating forces,” not invaders. They switched to trying to wear them down, but that seems to be failing as well. The Russian/Soviet military was historically better counter-punching.
If there is a coup then Medvedev gets lined up and shot as he is Putin’s btch with no power base of his own. Putin has killed anyone who could be a threat to him.
This war mirrors the 1850s Crimean war.
Russia until then faced off against the Ottomans or the Chagatai khanates, all more disorganised than Moscow.
And they won.
But when they faced western armies, the Russians collapsed
Exactly. If he just grabbed the Donbas, the west would have just muttered “too bad” and continued buying Russian raw materials.
Nat would have wilted, Zelensky would have lost the next election and been replaced by a pro Moscow candidate.
But Putin overplayed his hand
Then Putin will have to do a full mobilization and then the city boys from St. Petersburg and Moscow will have to fight in Ukraine.
That'll get the population to turn against him. In Russia, the endings are always bad.
The Kremlin lied to Generals about the intent to go to war.
When on exercises to prepare for the war, officers lied to their Generals who lied to the Kremlin about their readiness for war.
When orders to start the war were given to go to war, officers lied to their soldiers that they were going to war until they figured it out for themselves.
All of Russia's cultural problems outside the military are reasons Russia is losing too. They are too corrupt to win.
The Ukrainians are not fighting for Biden, nor for Zelensky.
The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and loved ones against the invader
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