Posted on 09/05/2022 6:44:24 AM PDT by delta7
After the first Ukrainian attempt to push towards had failed it is now reinforcing that failure. As I describe the move:
The only 'successful' attack was across the Inhulet river near Andriivka in the direction of the dam and river crossing that closes off the Kakhovka Dnieper reservoir. The troops were cut off and mostly destroyed. On the western side of the salient a Russian unit crossed the Inhulet towards north and attacked the Ukrainians on that side. It soon had to pull back and the Ukrainians used the Russian crossing to reconnect with the cut off units in the salient.
More Ukrainian reinforcements were pushed into the salient where they have little natural protection from Russian artillery and air force attacks.
The political leadership of Ukraine is committed to continue this massacre. The Ukrainian Telegram channel 'Resident' reported:
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky holds a meeting every day on the counteroffensive in the South of Ukraine, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to create a foothold in the Krivoy Rog direction. Zalusky reported on the heavy fighting and losses suffered by the Ukrainian army in the steppes, but the political center of influence insist on continuing the #Battle_for_Kherson operation. Reserves from the eastern front and Kharkov will be transferred to the Dnepropetrovsk region, in order to achieve the advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, no information will be officially published in the media until the seizure of territories.
Earlier another war observer noted:
Ukrainian channel Legitimny reports Helensky is prepared to sacrifice up to 20K dead and 40k wounded in the Kherson offensive, which would be 6% of his army. Current losses are around 2% so he's going for 2nd offensive wave. I believe that 60,000 men are more than 10% of the Ukrainian army but that is not the point.
'Resident' and 'Legitimny' are seen as authoritative Ukrainian sources. Unfortunately I have no access to the their Telegram channels so I can not verify the quotes. But it seems clear that Zelenski is going for broke.
Zalusky, the military leader of the Ukrainian army, will not be happy with this decision.
The only Ukrainian hope is that the Russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper can be cut off from the other side to then run out of supplies. The bridges across are damaged or destroyed but Russia has enough ferries to keep the supply line open. Large river crossing are part of every bigger Russian military training event. It has the materials and troops experienced with it. That is why I have my doubt that the Ukrainian hope can be realized.
Meanwhile the Russian military plays its usual defensive game. The frontline along the Kherson regions is currently held by lightly armored airmobile units. Whenever a Ukrainian push gets too strong they pull back from the front line, or leave the town under threat, to let the artillery and airforce do its work. They then pull up mobile reinforcements and push back until they are in their old positions. Rinse and repeat.
While this tactic costs the Russian side some losses the much higher ones are on the Ukrainian side.
The former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar writes:
Russia’s “domain control” can be put in perspective: the enemy is, on the one hand, caught on the bare steppe and cut down with the overwhelming superiority of Russian artillery and aviation, and, on the other hand, encountering well-fortified, entrenched defence lines. That said, Zelensky cannot give up, as he is desperately in need of a success story. Kiev still hopes to reverse the situation, but how that is achievable remains to be seen.
Against this sombre backdrop, more and more sceptical voices are being heard in the US about the Biden Administration’s policy trajectory. The latest is an opinion piece in Wall Street Journal by Gen. (Retd) Mark Kimmitt, formerly Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs in the Bush administration. Kimmitt predicts that “a breakthrough is unlikely” and soon, “logistics shortfalls” may force a change in US strategy. ... In principle, the options are: i) “dig deeper into NATO stockpiles being held back for national defences”; ii) “ramp up critical shortfalls” by invoking Defense Production Act and its European equivalents; iii) escalate the conflict by targeting Crimea and Russia itself; or, iv) forcing Zelensky to face the grim reality that “diminishing resupplies” of weaponry actually contains “the message of declining outside support” for the war itself.
The retired general with Republican Party leanings concludes: “Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later… Looking into a future of protracted war, diminishing high-tech systems and mounting casualties, Mr. Zelensky and NATO must face up to tough decisions before those decisions are forced on them.”
Of those four options the first will be rejected by the professional military. The second is, at least in Europe, currently impossible for lack of cheap energy. Metal smelters and forges in Europe are shutting down. The third option, escalation, is the one the neoconservatives will press for, likely with some success. The fourth option is one Joe Biden and other are yet unwilling to take.
I therefore expect that the U.S. will double down, most likely with some new attacks on Crimea and the Kerch bridges.
Shove that cannon fodder in!
Not even close. Since June they have managed to take only a small amount of Ukraine.
In the Kherson area the Russians are losing terrain. In this place they lost their position, an IFV, and for one young Russian their life.
Most of us didn't need Trump to tell us that there was a lot of fake news and propaganda. We already knew that Russians in particular were famous for fake news and propaganda.
Apparently you don't realize that fake news and propaganda is common everywhere, and Russia is one of the greatest sources of it.
Your "sources" are just people posting Russian propaganda talking points. They have the same job you do, they are just getting paid more.
You should change your handle to Baghdad Bob’s Chin.
Strategic surprise in modern war is very difficult to achieve once everyone starts looking. It's the tactical surprise that matters. In WW2, we didn't hide the fact that we were going to making a huge amphibious landing somewhere in France sometime in the late Spring/Summer of 1944. That wasn't a secret from anyone. It was exactly where, when, and how we were going to do it that was secret.
I think the same applies here. The reason the Ukes have a chance at Kherson is that it is an isolated Russian bridgehead. Everyone knows that, and acted accordingly.
From your lack of any substantive comment, I'll assume that name calling is all you've got. Not impressive.
I think the real issue is going to be reinforcements/replacements. It isn't good for morale for troops to feel they're on their own on the wrong side of a river.
I can see why you would think that, given what you consider substance.
“Sounds like this report was written in Moscow.”
And posted by a frequent pro Putin, pro Russia commenter.
It is possible there will be a significant change in March 2023 when Putin turns over his position to a successor. Don’t know if it will be better or worse for Ukrine or the west. Some people don’t seem aware of this significant date which has already been posted and discussed here at FR.
“Reserves from the eastern front and Kharkov will be transferred to the Dnepropetrovsk region
Shove that cannon fodder in!’”
I think you were referring to Uke cannon fodder, but in fact I now see why they were announcing their Kherson offensive weeks in advance. They intended that Russian transfer their reserves down south to be slaughtered and tied up in a possible trap.
Your “sources” are just people posting Russian propaganda talking points
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Video footage and maps ( ones the West ignores) speak louder than words and propaganda. Even my teenager can see the Ukies getting creamed on the military front.
Surprisingly, the Western MSM does mention Vlads reverse sanctions are crippling the EU, however they leave out just how dire straits they are in. Try viewing Indian news for much more truth, or even Turkish, Bulgarian, etc..but that would require you to do some work.
Carry on, war cheerleaders.
neokoolaid: better than Ukrainian vodka.
As it stands, Russians have the cash, fuel and support of the people.
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Exactly, but you left out Russia’s huge manufacturing capability, they have everything, oil ( propellants) , metal ( shells), commodities and factories to keep manufacturing artillery shells. It is reported their production of artillery shells is exceeding the 70-100,000 shells they are expending in Ukraine.
Do realize, Russia is lowering interest rates, inflation decreasing, Ruble rising, and raking in billions for the war effort ( compliments of the EU)….
….and Vlad says Checkmate, again.
Is Ukraine looking for 10 year olds to operate RPGs?
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See any similarities between Zelensky and Nazi Germany? Conscripting 18-60 year olds, woman registration, what next, the “ Zelensky Youth” ( Hitler Youth) ?
Try to get Russia to pay a really high price for occupying territory by bleeding them by using a thousand cuts.
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Meanwhile the EU manufacturing base is shutting down, citizens will suffer this winter, food shortages, energy rationing now happening, and the EU Euro is cratering…..
Russia is in need of nothing, food, water, NG, gas, diesel, metals, commodities, etc….Carry on War Cheerleader.
My biggest problem with you Ukraine supporters is the constant invocation of Putin, in forms ranging from sarcastic to obscene.
I support Russia and I hope she wins. But is has nothing to do with who is in charge there.
I support spheres of influence, and I oppose globalization. Mexico (for example)can more or less run their own affairs, BUT they had damn well better accommodate American interests when push comes to shove. I would invade Mexico for joining a Chinese military alliance, and I wouldn’t even think twice about it.
I don’t suppose I can complain about Mexico going full on globohomo, since the United States is the worst culprit at spreading degeneracy on the planet.
A Russian defeat in their war would be bad for spheres of influence and good for globohomo, and I couldn’t care less if Putin or Stalin or Nicholas II is in charge.
Foolish counteroffensive
More dead folks for nothing
Over the Ingelets river
Now cut off
Ukes send reinforcements to help them
Now they are getting pounded and Pootie is north of the river
That counteroffensive took 25% losses the Ukes can’t afford
Meanwhile the real war is in Donbas where Pootie has a distinct advantage
It’s just senseless
I’ve heard this story before:
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
II
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
III
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
Rode the six hundred.
IV
Flashed all their sabres bare,
Flashed as they turned in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wondered.
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right through the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reeled from the sabre stroke
Shattered and sundered.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.
V
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell.
They that had fought so well
Came through the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.
VI
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!
And all in a totally lost cause. Russia won that war too.
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