Posted on 06/03/2022 3:43:07 AM PDT by Mount Athos
Once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.
Any conceivable Russian victory now will entail such a loss of blood and treasure that it will have to be judged Pyrrhic at best.
But it will be a victory nonetheless — and we in the West had better come to grips with that hard truth.
Let’s begin by eliminating the impossible.
The first unrealistic endgame is the reduction of Ukraine to a vassal state of the Russian empire.
The second impossible scenario is the total defeat of the Russian military and the restoration of Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders.
The third and final impossible scenario is a limited Ukrainian victory that would reverse all or most of the Russian gains since Feb. 24, 2022.
While once viewed as a realistic outcome, by now it should be obvious that this is impossible. Just as Ukraine lacks the ability to liberate all its pre-2014 territory, it also lacks the ability to liberate the recently conquered territory in the Donbas or along the Azov coast. Unlike in the north of Ukraine, these territories are central to Russian interests in Ukraine and, as such, Russia simply will not withdraw from them as it withdrew from Kyiv earlier in the war. Nor will Ukrainian forces – themselves, it should be noted, suffering terrible attrition all along the battle front and growing weaker with each passing day – be strong enough to compel them to do so.
And that leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine, neither fully part of the West nor entirely within the Russian sphere of influence. This outcome is not only not impossible, it’s not even improbable.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Silly rabbit, not even Ukraine got that 40 billion.
Yep, we are on to the all new and improved “CURRENT THING”.
That cannot be said enough. That Obama involvement with Nuland and our State Dept/CIA is at the root of all this sadness in Ukraine for many years.
Never fear, she is down in Brazil getting them prepped for the onslaught of the WEF/ NWO ousting of Bolsonero. Sad for them.
That’s what happens when a country allows uncontrolled immigration into it.
Russians came in. They now claim it.
Soon to happen to the SW USA.
This is how I’ve seen in playing out for quite some time. And I’m not the only one. And this is not about loving or hating putin. It’s about being a realist.
Yep. And in this case I’ll rush I wanted was the eastern part and the Black Sea ports, which I believe they now have. It was acquired a great cost but I think they think it’s worth it. And we can’t forget where the ruble stands in the international currency markets now.
Judging from the reports from liberated territories in the south (and not junk LNR/DNR), they are doing just fine.
Local administration is functioning, they are switching to new standard, including ruble and Russian internet.
- The Deep State ran a couple of coups that ousted democratically elected governments in Ukraine and installed extreme anti Russian governments.
- Those governments did things like incorporate out and open Nazis into the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as banning Russian which half the country speaks, as an official language.
- When the ethnically Russian portions of eastern Ukraine objected to all of this and demanded autonomy from the dictates of Kiev, the Kiev government attacked them. It was forced to agree to grant autonomy to them in the Minsk agreement but then immediately ignored what it had agreed to and kept right on attacking them for years. They killed about 14,000 people in the process.
- Ukraine is not a democracy. Political opponents are jailed. Opposition media is banned. Ukraine is also one of the most corrupt countries on earth.
- Russia has been winning the war from the start. Russia was always going to win the war.
- the western sanctions on Russia have hurt Western countries which need Russian commodities, far more than they've hurt Russia.
- the $40 billion+ of US taxpayer money the US government gave to Ukraine was mostly a payoff for Deep State/Democrat party supporters.
- This whole thing...the Deep State meddling in Ukraine starting about 20 years ago and all that has happened since was one of the stupidest possible foreign policy decisions the incompetent morons in the Deep State have ever undertaken. Aside from wasting a lot of US taxpayer money and harming Western economies and getting a lot of Ukrainians killed, they've also managed to push Russia right into China's arms. China is the real enemy for those keeping score at home. China used to be very vulnerable to a naval blockade of its fuel imports from the Middle East. Now, Russian oil and natural gas and grain and fertilizer and lots of other commodities will primarily supply China. Now the US Navy will not be able to blockade that flow of resources like they could have before.
This has been an utter and complete disaster for America any way you slice it.
That's the unpalatable truth.
Do I even need to add that the theft of the 2020 election was due in large part to the Deep State's certainty that Trump would not go along with their longstanding plan for an anti Russia war in Ukraine or have you figured that out already?
bkmk
So those parts of the USA that are solid blue should secede from the USA?
What Western weapons? Are you talking about 98 cannons and 4 HIMARs? Ukraine is now coming through the fourth wave of mobilization grabbing disabled from the streets.
None of the 40 years old allowed to re-enlist is coming to Ukraine so far. The original force is still involved since February, without reinforcement, mostly rotating itself back and fourth.
——But it will be a victory nonetheless——
No, no victory because there are two important elements other than occupation of territory
The first is time during which the West that has now fully turned on Russia supplies weapons and training that will produce a reverse
The second is that while gaining some territory that was Ukraine, Putin has lost Russia. That which made Russia possible is now mostly gone. The various sanctions and isolation and loss of oil sales effectively make Russia impossible. Russia which some rank as #11 after Brazil and Italy will sink to the 20’s after Taiwan and Poland.
The thought above is before reparations are applied. After the reparations, Russia will be destitute for at least ten years.
Today is the 100th day of the Russian 3-day operation to conquer Ukraine.
It was 90 days ago when you said Russia has won and needs few days to mop things up.
Agreed. Delusional.
I’m just playing with hypotheticals. It’s entirely possible the Russians will do a better job running those territories than the Ukes. Or not. Time will tell.
CC
I’m wondering where are all the blue and yellow flag wavers on this post? Usually, there are among the first 10 telling us Russia is deserving everything it gets and we (The U.S.) should have no problem sending 100 - followed by an unknown number of zeros - dollars to maintain this conflict.
And if anyone dares to question that narrative, the personal insults (flames) come back with a fury.
Meanwhile, there is virtually NO southern border (that means we’re being invaded), gas and food prices are skyrocketing (what - no baby formula?), food processing plants keep having ‘unfortunate’ accidents, and due to what can only be described as ‘criminally negligent homicides’ on behalf of Uvalde law enforcement, out government’s solution to all of this is to disarm everyone.
Yes, war hawks of FR - this is directed at you folks. With everyone, and I mean EVERYONE on a hair trigger, fearing what changes in our lives may come soon due to this country GOING DOWN THE TOILET, too many on this damn forum thinks our primary responsibility to protect a borders thousands of miles away. In case folks haven’t forgotten, we’re really not good at winning wars these days. At the rate we’re going, China won’t need to invade Taiwan...
... they’ll just buy it.
my $0.02
jimjohn - OUT (before I loose my temper)
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