Posted on 06/03/2022 3:43:07 AM PDT by Mount Athos
Once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.
Any conceivable Russian victory now will entail such a loss of blood and treasure that it will have to be judged Pyrrhic at best.
But it will be a victory nonetheless — and we in the West had better come to grips with that hard truth.
Let’s begin by eliminating the impossible.
The first unrealistic endgame is the reduction of Ukraine to a vassal state of the Russian empire.
The second impossible scenario is the total defeat of the Russian military and the restoration of Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders.
The third and final impossible scenario is a limited Ukrainian victory that would reverse all or most of the Russian gains since Feb. 24, 2022.
While once viewed as a realistic outcome, by now it should be obvious that this is impossible. Just as Ukraine lacks the ability to liberate all its pre-2014 territory, it also lacks the ability to liberate the recently conquered territory in the Donbas or along the Azov coast. Unlike in the north of Ukraine, these territories are central to Russian interests in Ukraine and, as such, Russia simply will not withdraw from them as it withdrew from Kyiv earlier in the war. Nor will Ukrainian forces – themselves, it should be noted, suffering terrible attrition all along the battle front and growing weaker with each passing day – be strong enough to compel them to do so.
And that leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine, neither fully part of the West nor entirely within the Russian sphere of influence. This outcome is not only not impossible, it’s not even improbable.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
So called experts at it again.
We know the Russians can take territory. What about holding and administering it?
CC
Russia already won and I want our $40bn back.
You’re right, this is why Russia is the smallest country in the world and failed to hold Crimea.
This article is a joke.
Victoria Nuland’s baby
The Russian Army is to the point they are asking veterans age 40 plus to re-up, and after 30 days of training, go to the front lines. There is no formal age limit to enlistment. After 1000+ tanks have been lost in Ukraine the Russian Army is taking WWII era tanks out of mothballs.
Ukraine ordered universal conscription as soon as Russia invaded. Fresh troops are due within the fortnight and Western weapons are about to flood Ukraine.
Total victory (including Crimea) for Ukraine is possible as long as weapons and aid continue to flow.
Looks like the the political establishment is trying to prepare the neocons and p4ssy hat wearers for defeat against Russia! Russia! Russia! Time to report for your re-programming! The next issue is Guns! Guns! Guns! in the hands of white supremacists! Forget about inflation. Forget about gas prices. Forget about the stolen election.
Ukraine is in a very bad position east of Bakhmut river.
It will be in a bad position for some weeks.
Others have said it is strange they didn’t withdraw to west of this river earlier. But I don’t know military things well I just listen to some armchair analyst who probably also don’t know much.
But once Russia tries to progress beyond that it will be much more difficult for many reasons, including as many Western weapons arrive. Unless there is some general collapse.
I don’t know and I don’t think anyone does.
Wars never goes to plan and both sides are always scheming surprises.
👍 👍 Meanwhile Russian only speaking Ukrainians fleeing from the fighting in the East are being denied help in Western Ukraine.
I don’t share the authors opinion, although they would be right 1/4 of the time. There are really four possible outcomes now. Never ending war and conflict, to be re-ignited later, Russian victory, Ukraine victory, global thermonuclear war.
Right now, the small Gaines the Russians have made, and with the equipment stocks before the war I believe that 20% is small, I don’t see it as a Russian victory. Further, I don’t see it as pyrrhic if they win at this point. Ukraine will have millions of trained and equipped soldiers soon. The tide of battle, especially in winter, could easily swing. Russia idea of victory is to take land, but that will result in a reigniting later, so it’s not really victory. Global thermal nuclear war is routinely sponsored by Russian media and now
Statesmen.
When I put all the pieces together, especially the threats of nuclear launches and Putin living in a bunker, the mind of the enemy is that they are not winning. If they were confident of victory, they would not threaten nuclear weapons. It’s illogical. Ergo, Russia believes it in a very bad place, despite the territorial gains. I agree with the Russians on this. The clock is ticking towards fall and winter, and they don’t seem to have a plan.
Thanks for thoughtful reply
Yes, but for months now we have been told the Russians were losing everything.
Now the truth slowly emerges. Even to admit that Russia purposefully withdrew from attacking Kiev because it wasn’t central to Russian interests.
The west and the lies make us look really bad. So much of this Ukraine hype came from central casting and were productions made for western media propaganda.
Honest assessment would be so much better, but the West now operates by not winning but making people think they are winning. Each time they do this, the truth smacks them in the face until the next time they create a mess.
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