Posted on 03/09/2022 2:04:20 PM PST by blam
Ukraine, known as the “breadbasket of Europe” given it’s long been among the world’s top ten wheat exporters and supplied over $6 billion in agricultural products to the European Union in 2020, has issued an emergency order Wednesday banning the export of grains and other products.
The ban includes the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat, sugar, live cattle, meat, and other products considered vital to the global economy. But amid wartime, and with Ukraine’s government saying many of its citizens are now starving under Russian siege, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian and food policy Roman Leshchenko said the drastic action was taken to avert a “humanitarian crisis in Ukraine,” stabilize the market and “meet the needs of the population in critical food products,” according to the AP.
World shares of Wheat exports pic.twitter.com/tk1KiCoNiR
— Nicholas Gruen (@NGruen1) March 9, 2022
With food prices already soaring, it’s expected the move could hit already struggling populations from Lebanon to Syria to Africa the hardest.
“Russia and Ukraine together supply nearly a third of the world’s wheat and barley exports, which have soared in price since the invasion,” the AP underscores. “The products they send are made into bread, noodles and animal feed around the world…”
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has listed Russia as the globe’s top wheat exporter in 2020, while Ukraine was the fifth largest. China and India rival Russia’s production, but both countries consume most of what they produce domestically.
Chart: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Goldman Sachs
Ukraine is also a major global supplier of corn and sunflower oil, vital for cooking oil. Here’s more the potential impact of the war, via Yahoo Finance:
As for Ukraine, the market has adjusted to the probability that wheat harvested and stored last season won’t be shipped, Gilbertie said. What’s now in question is what happens to the wheat currently in the ground. It’s mostly winter wheat, he said; it’s planted in autumn, then sprouts, grows and is harvested in spring.
“What the market’s trying to do is price in the potential of there not being a harvest season for wheat, and not being able to get the wheat out of the fields and/or shipped out of Ukraine,” he said.
Crops like sunflower and corn are planted in spring, so it’s unclear whether farmers will be able to plant at all, between the Ukrainian war draft, the invasion itself, and supply shortages of fuel and fertilizer.
The wheat price is up 65% in a week.
Oil is through $127 a barrel.
The effects on poverty and cost of living in this country will be enormous. People will starve in their homes.
And all the while millionaires and billionaires see their biggest wealth increase EVER in history. pic.twitter.com/NYGbXsOaQ5
— Gary Stevenson (@garyseconomics) March 7, 2022
The same expert, Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium, said of the potential long-term effect that both the war and international sanctions on Russia could have: “It is a biblical event when you run low on wheat stocks. You won’t see a global food shortage. Unfortunately, what you’re going to see globally is that billions of people might not be able to afford to buy the food.”
And Fox Business summarized that combined, “Russia and Ukraine account for around 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of global corn supplies, and 80% of the world’s sunflower oil exports.”
"According to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, if the West sanctions Russian oil exports, the price for the commodity could reach $300 per barrel, and although this is quite an unlikely scenario, in reality, oil prices do seem to have quite a while left to rise."
Those in our Imperial Capitol are very happy.
Dont fault them one bit. Take of your own first.
*Take care of your own first*
No more Mr Nice Guy!
I don't see Ukraine planting any grain in 2022. Or Russia selling to the countries that are waging economic war against it.
Michael Yon calls it PanFaWar:
Pandemic, Famine, War.
But some folks are pushing hard for PanFaWar: it's all part of their plan.
"The worse, the better." Lenin
A wrecked global economy, a smaller global population, and Klaus as global leader.
PS: Uncle Klaus has a bust of Lenin on the shelf behind him in office photos. And he's on video bragging about how "The Soros Empire" succeeded "The Soviet Empire."
And to think that our government pays farmers NOT to grow.
We have lost our collective minds!
There will be a famine. It is being caused by the lunatics who are dismantling the fossil fuel industry. Natural is the essential component of fertilizer. It is now scarce and expensive. Farmers around the world project lower crop yields. The diminution of economic activity will leave people unable to afford what little food is available. The famine and resulting wars will have nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with lunacy.
Major Major’s farther was the best at not growing alfalfa.
Major Major’s father was a sober God-fearing man whose idea of a good joke was to lie about his age. He was a longlimbed farmer, a God-fearing, freedom-loving, law-abiding rugged individualist who held that federal aid to anyone but farmers was creeping socialism. He advocated thrift and hard work and disapproved of loose women who turned him down. His specialty was alfalfa, and he made a good thing out of not growing any. The government paid him well for every bushel of alfalfa he did not grow. The more alfalfa he did not grow, the more money the government gave him, and he spent every penny he didn’t earn on new land to increase the amount of alfalfa he did not produce. Major Major’s father worked without rest at not growing alfalfa. On long winter evenings he remained indoors and did not mend harness, and he sprang out of bed at the crack of noon every day just to make certain that the chores would not be done. He invested in land wisely and soon was not growing more alfalfa than any other man in the county. Neighbors sought him out for advice on all subjects, for he had made much money and was therefore wise. “As ye sow, so shall ye reap,” he counseled one and all, and everyone said, “Amen.”
I'd say that's on the Russian invasion. Can't expect a country that is being invaded and where people are going hungry because of that to export food.
How could they export anything right now?
Amen. Wish the bozo's in DC understood that concept.
Open our oil production instead of begging the world to up theirs.
This whole thing is a movie.
Who wants to bet that gas, wheat, and a half dozen other consumer staples will be cheaper in Ukraine by the summer than they are in the US.
Famine, pestilence and the sword.
That’s some catch, that Ukrainian-Catch.
Maybe farmers should get back to growing wheat and corn (not for ethanol) but for human consumption again. That is what we will need the most before this is all done.
Russia needs to tighten the stranglehold it has one the Ukrainian troops in Eastern Ukraine so the farmers can get back to work.
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