Exactly!
Posted on 03/03/2022 3:24:05 PM PST by canuck_conservative
1. “We believe the Russians are deliberately regrouping themselves and reassessing the progress that they have not made and how to make up the lost time." ...
2. “We believe they have experienced logistic and sustainment challenges. Challenges that we don’t believe they fully anticipated.” They may be running short on fuel, with supply tankers unable to get to them, and the soldiers are facing shortages of food ....
Observers suggest routine maintenance has either not been performed or, in the case of many blown-out tires, cheaper Chinese-made tires have been substituted that lose structural integrity if the trucks were parked in the direct UV rays of the sun....
3. “They are getting resistance from the Ukrainians....
4. But there is another, more mundane and foreseeable possibility: springtime mud.
Famous for its “rasputitsa” mud seasons in spring and fall, the area becomes challenging to manoeuvre. Armies experienced this local obstacle in the first and second world wars, yet surprisingly, the Russians sent the vehicles through on the same roads again.
The deep and widespread rasputitsa, which bogs even the lightest vehicles in the mud, is amplified by the enormous weight of the missile system and truck infrastructure, sinking the army trucks deeper, putting enormous pressure on what may be substandard tires. And the supply network for replacements appears to be sorely challenged....
(Excerpt) Read more at theprovince.com ...
Reading this, one might reach the conclusion that the Russian Army is nothing but a paper tiger.
So why didn't Putin make sure all his pieces were in place before he even launched this invasion?
Exactly!
I’m a bit surprised the Ukrainian army isn’t repurposing all the operational trucks, tanks, BMPs, anti-aircraft guns. All they need is some diesel.
I also think the Russians are afraid to keep moving toward Kiev because with every passing day, the Ukrainian army is likely preparing the mother of all ambushes.
Javelins have a 2.5 mile effective range and ate fire-and-forget. Russian tanks don’t have half that range. By the time Russian helicopters identify what may be hundreds of launch locations, the Javelin crews would have plenty of time to get into covered and concealed positions. The there is the problem with Stingers and other AA rockets. And how many trained snipers are ready to kill the Russian officers; dozens or more likely hundreds. My guess is that there are plenty of former military snipers or hunters that have volunteered their services; plus what those who are actually Ukrainian.
And just how many IEDs and tank mines are ready to be set up if the Russians attempt to enter Kiev?
Putin will not send his Army in until the are no forces within the city of Kiev to effectively defend it. That time is maybe never.
Maybe he thought he had a great plan. However, when the shooting starts, plans can go to shit in a hurry; and they have.
Also keep in mind that his generals may have been too afraid to tell him his plan wasn’t going to work.
Like in the MONTHS of preparation and posturing that preceded this mess? You know, maybe while they were taking breaks from watching the Olympics?
There’s no “great plan”, just the usual Russian ‘competence’ on display.
I am thinking that if that is the true cause, a focus on shooting the tires might not be a bad tactic.
The troops are demoralized. This wasn’t the exercise they
were expecting.
The generals are waiting out cancer’s last word on Putin.
reading Campaign in Russia again and right now they are stuck in the rasputitsa mud outside Nova-Buda in 1944...
bout ten miles NW from there
If they would stop and ask for directions they could continue the invasion.
If the red line on the map represents the Russian line, then it looks like they are the circle separated from the main force to the north, cut off now that Ukraine retook the east-west highway.
That's the long and short of it. And he'd be a hero, maybe even save his party from humiliation in November. But he won't...
There’s a black female Second Lieutenant at the front of the convoy with a map and compass. But the makeup mirror is broken.
Putin probably got a really good bulk deal on Chinese tires, traded for oil. Thank you Comrade Xi!
Russian troops may feel safe parking now, but how effective will the Stinger missiles be that are being sent to Ukraine?
Weather and mud are certainly factors, and if the attack on a south eastern nuclear plant goes real bad, wind will become a serious issue. The link below for Kiev weather also includes wind directions. Camped out in trucks with nuclear fallout is even less safe than hiding in basements and subways.
There is NO Keystone XL Pipeline except for the one between the Cushing oil depot in Oklahoma and Texas refineries. It also has nothing to do with resuming domestic oil and gas production. A lot of that, like in N. Dakota was shut down because gas prices got too low to support higher cost fields production activities. Now that the price of oil is back up, they will start production again and get richer. Keystone was not build and probably won’t be as explained below.
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/what-keystone-pipeline
The pipeline was fought with vigor mainly because of fear of leaks from this highly toxic oil sludge damaging pipes: “Complicating matters, leaks can be difficult to detect. And when tar sands oil does spill, it’s more difficult to clean up than conventional crude because it immediately sinks to the bottom of the waterway. People and wildlife coming into contact with tar sands oil are exposed to toxic chemicals, and rivers and wetland environments are at particular risk from a spill. (For evidence, note the 2010 tar sands oil spill in Kalamazoo River, Michigan, a disaster that cost Enbridge more than a billion dollars in cleanup fees and took six years to settle in court.) Keystone XL would have crossed agriculturally important and environmentally sensitive areas, including hundreds of rivers, streams, aquifers, and water bodies. One was Nebraska’s Ogallala Aquifer, which provides drinking water for millions as well as 30 percent of America’s irrigation water. A spill would have been devastating to the farms, ranches, and communities that depend on these crucial ecosystems.”
Then there was the wild fire that ravaged the town serving the tar sands oil production: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/wildfires-cause-chaos-in-canada-oil-sands-town.html
“More than 80,000 residents have been ordered to flee after an earlier order that had applied to almost 30,000 people, mostly on the city’s south side, was extended to tens of thousands more as flames continued to make their way into the city Tuesday. Residents were panicked. Highway 63 is the only road out of the city and flames jumped the road.”
Other articles reported that 2,400 buildings, mostly houses were destroyed. In addition: “When oil prices were surging, the city and its vast reserves of oil sands fed an economic boom. Energy companies poured billions of dollars into projects and thousands of workers flowed into Fort McMurray.
But the oil slump of the last year brought an end to the prosperity. Even before the fire, the government projected an $8 billion deficit, in contrast to an $800 million surplus in 2014.” The “oil slump” was caused by the record low gas prices in 2016 which made profits for oil production drop seriously. Sorry folks, you can have cheap gas and less production, or costly gas and more production, unless you think we should have subsidized gas prices like some Muslim oil producing countries.
Yes. The usual deep environmentalist hypotheticals, stoking baseless fear.
It is all propaganda.
The fact, undisputed, because there is a long history, is pipelines are the safest and cheapest way to transport oil.
Could be spring mud and bad tires if so they may be there a while,no wonder Putin wants to negotiate.
Could be spring mud and bad tires if so they may be there a while,no wonder Putin wants to negotiate.
Or are flaming liars...
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