Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1822258564544569378
Without uniform
https://x.com/SergioCentaurus/status/1822259384736485712
Mikhail Khodorkovsky:
The Kremlin’s secret army. How Russia’s military intelligence is building a network of criminals and far-right activists to wreak havoc in Europe
🧵Here’s how they operate
Previously, the GRU military intelligence service had used its own agents to carry out attacks on foreign soil. But after a series of high-profile failures, such as the botched assassination of Sergey Skripal in Salisbury, they seem to have shifted tactics
The GRU has assembled a team tasked with organizing protests and acts of sabotage overseas, often engaging foreign nationals to do the dirty work on the ground – giving them plausible deniability if the person is caught or fails to complete a task
thread
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821976407766876407.html
report
https://dossier.center/diversion/
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2024
Iran will reportedly deliver “hundreds” of ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future. Reuters, citing multiple intelligence sources including two European intelligence sources, reported on August 9 that Russian MoD representatives signed a contract with Iran on December 13, 2023, for the delivery of Fath-360 close range ballistic missiles and that Iran will deliver these missiles at an unspecified “soon” time.[56] The Fath-360 missiles have a maximum range of 120 kilometers and a warhead weighing 150 kilograms. Multiple intelligence sources also told Reuters that dozens of Russian military personnel are currently training in Iran to operate Fath-360 missile systems. Western and Ukrainian sources have previously warned that Iran may be preparing to provide Russia with short range ballistic systems, including multiple systems with maximum ranges and payloads significantly greater than the limits imposed upon Russia under its Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) obligations.[57] These short-range ballistic missiles will likely allow Russian forces to strike Ukrainian near-rear targets while reserving its own missile stockpiles (such as Iskander missiles) for deep-rear Ukrainian targets.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2024
Russian blogger
Kremlin snuffbox
In Kursk Oblast, they want to hold a religious procession against the Ukrainian offensive. Belousov hands over a relic over which Patriarch Kirill read “special prayers” The acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexey Smirnov, proposed holding a religious procession in order to protect the region from the current offensive of Ukrainian troops. Andrey Belousov warmly supported him in this matter.
“Andrey Removich continues to believe that the relics of Saint Matrona of Moscow will help us defeat the enemy. They helped us advance, beat the Nazis in Kiev (we wrote about this, - ed.). They will help our army now. It cannot be that God has turned away from Russia,” a source close to Belousov told us.
According to him, the Minister of Defense has already asked Patriarch Kirill to read “special powerful prayers aimed at our victory” over the relics. They also plan to hand over several icons from the Patriarchal Cathedral of the Resurrection of Christ, the main temple of our army, for the religious procession. According to sources in the Russian Orthodox Church, the procession will most likely go from the Znamensky Bogoroditsky Monastery in Kursk to the Kursk Root Hermitage. At the same time, the date and time of the procession will be kept secret until the very end, so that, according to one of the interlocutors in the Church, “monks, soldiers and other participants are not killed.”
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4496
It will surely work. ;-)
Why can't the Ukrainian Armed Forces be stopped?
Many critical publications have appeared in war correspondents’ channels over the past week. And many of them are on point. Intelligence has completely failed the preparation stage for a major enemy breakthrough. By the end of the week, Ukrainian troops have already broken through several sections of the border. So far, solitary sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been spotted in the Bryansk region, but the authorities on the ground should not yawn either.
Sources in the Defense Ministry admit that real chaos reigned on the ground in the first days. “Some units were transferred to the DPR 2 days before the Ukrainian Armed Forces broke through. It is possible that we are talking about deliberate sabotage. An investigation is underway. Also, our troops in the Kursk border area had no electronic warfare or secure communications equipment. The surprise (attack - Ed.) caused entire squads of soldiers to leave the battlefield, and the enemy used this to advance deeper into the region,” a source in the Defense Ministry said.
According to a source in the General Staff, the transfer of reserves took an inadmissibly long time. He explained the movement of the military in columns by haste. The attack on the column in the Rylsk region took the lives of 143 servicemen!
There is a big problem with reserves - for some reason there is no visual evidence of successful battles of the Russian Armed Forces, which war correspondents talk about. There is a fear that official bodies and related Telegram channels are lying again.
It is worth mentioning separately that local residents practically did not offer any resistance to the enemy. The FSB attributes this to the fact that mostly pensioners lived in the border area. It is also important to emphasize that the Armed Forces of Ukraine use a large number of drones and electronic warfare systems, which was not the case in the Kursk region. And because of this, among other things, our aviation suffers. We have not yet published exact figures on losses, but everything is serious there. Alas. In general, the enemy is using a maneuverable approach and it is very sad to see that, by and large, our command has been unable to counter them. Probably, some personnel adjustments will be made in the General Staff. In any case, it would be a logical solution.
Belousov was invited to Kursk to participate in the religious procession against the Ukrainian offensive
We wrote that Andrei Belousov decided to donate the relics of Saint Matrona of Moscow and several icons for the religious procession in Kursk. They want to hold it to stop the offensive of Ukrainian troops. We learned that the Minister of Defense received an offer from Acting Governor Alexei Smirnov to come to Kursk and personally take part in this religious procession.
“Andrei Removich received the offer. But now he has a lot of things to do. I don't know if he will be able to come to Kursk,” our source close to Belousov said about this.
At the same time, many military personnel who are currently in the Kursk region believe that it would be nice if someone from the country's leadership visited the region and “showed that everything will be fine.”
“Of course, we don't expect to see Vladimir Vladimirovich here. But I would personally be glad to see the Minister of Defense or the Chief of the General Staff. Many of the soldiers are not very motivated, and their fighting spirit needs to be raised. Moreover, even Shoigu has been to the front. And we have more hopes for Andrei Removich,” an officer we know explained to us.
At the same time, we have information that several priests are planning to independently organize religious processions in Kursk and the region. “People believe that they will stop the enemy - with prayer, icons, and the relics of saints. God will save people like them. Together with our entire country,” a source in the Church close to Patriarch Kirill commented on this information.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4504
When you run out of real things, there's magic and superstition. It suggests that it is not only Russia's economy that is crashing.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2024
The hastily assembled and disparate Russian force grouping responding to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast is comprised of Russian units likely below their doctrinal end strength and ill-prepared to establish the joint command and control (C2) structures necessary to coordinate operations. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on August 11 that Russian forces have thus far redeployed roughly 10 to 11 battalions from across the theater to Kursk Oblast but suggested that these battalion units are below their intended end strength, likely further exacerbating the disorganization of the Russian response.[22] Mashovets reported that Russian forces have deployed to defend in Kursk Oblast: a reinforced motorized rifle battalion of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and up to three battalions from the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 72nd Motorized Rifle Division (both of the 44th Army Corps [AC], LMD) from the Northern Grouping of Forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast; one motorized rifle battalion of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) from the Kupyansk direction; up to two airborne (VDV) assault battalions of the 217th VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) from within Kursk Oblast; units of an unspecified echelon of the 104th VDV Division from Kherson Oblast; one battalion possibly of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF]) from the Kherson direction that Mashovets assessed is more likely of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (BSF) from northern Kharkiv Oblast; and additional battalions of the 38th and 64th motorized rifle brigades (both of the 35th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]), likely from the Zaporizhia direction.[23] Mashovets’ reporting largely coheres with a report from another Ukrainian source on August 9 and contradicts widespread Russian milblogger claims on August 10 and 11 that elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade are fighting near Sudzha and Martynovka.[24]
Russia’s redeployment of battalion and lower-level units rather than full brigades and regiments to defend in Kursk Oblast is likely contributing to Russian forces’ difficulty in quickly establishing effective C2 in the area. Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight reported that both Russian and Ukrainian forces will redeploy battalions across the frontline and that these battalions are often at the strength of reinforced companies due to manpower and materiel shortages, including newly-created units that are not fully staffed.[25] Frontelligence Insight noted that drone units often deploy separately from their parent units due to their higher mobility and combat effectiveness, and so observing drone activities in any given area of the theater does not necessarily mean that the drone element’s parent unit is operating in the vicinity.[26] The disorganized nature of regular Russian battalions, combined with the Russian decision to assign the defense of Kursk Oblast to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) rather than to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as well as the integration of conscripts, FSB personnel, and Rosgvardia elements in combat, will hinder the Russian effort to establish effective C2. Mashovets assessed that Russian forces are likely attempting to buy time for further, more comprehensive force redeployments to defend in Kursk Oblast and focusing on minimizing the Ukrainian offensive effort rather than establishing a joint C2 structure.[27] A prominent, Kremlin-awarded, Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces in Kursk Oblast are struggling to communicate with each other and often do not know the units operating on their flanks due to rapid redeployments of Russian units from different force groupings, ultimately undermining the integrity of the Russian defensive lines.[28]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11-2024
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2024
Putin delegated overlapping tasks to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Federal Security Service (FSB), and Rosgvardia in the Ukrainian-Russian border area — further highlighting how the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast is struggling to establish the joint command and control (C2) structures necessary to coordinate operations. Putin stated that the Russian MoD’s main task is to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory.[4] Putin tasked the Russian MoD and Border Service (subordinated to the FSB) to “ensure reliable coverage of the state border.” Putin stated that the FSB and Rosgvardia must “fight against [Ukrainian] sabotage and reconnaissance groups,” while Rosgvardia also conducts “its own combat missions.” Putin stated that the FSB and Rosgvardia must also ensure the counterterrorism operation regime and that the FSB, with Rosgvardia’s support, is standing up a “headquarters” — likely referring to a headquarters to manage the ongoing counterterrorism operation.[5] Kursk Oblast Acting Governor Alexei Smirnov claimed that Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov, who is reportedly the Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces, arrived in Kursk Oblast and is coordinating “with all security forces.”[6] It is unclear at this time if the Kremlin has designated Nikiforov as an overall commander of Russian military and security forces in Kursk Oblast or if Nikiforov is operating within the FSB-led counterterrorism operation headquarters.
Smirnov claimed that Russian forces are having unspecified issues since there is “no clear front line” and it is unclear where the “military units” are located — likely referring to Ukrainian forces quickly engaging Russian forces near a settlement and then withdrawing from the area, which is reportedly leading to conflicting Russian reporting from the ground about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast.[7] Putin appears to be tasking the FSB and Rosgvardia with countering Ukrainian “mobile groups” that have been operating deeper into Kursk Oblast, while simultaneously tasking the FSB, Rosgvardia, and Russian MoD with conducting defensive and offensive operations in the region. ISW continues to assess that the disparate Russian force grouping responding to the Ukrainian incursion is complicating Russia’s ability to establish the C2 structures necessary to coordinate operations.[8]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024
“Our country is burning, and Putin is receiving guests”
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas arrived in Moscow the day before, where he will hold talks with Vladimir Putin. It would seem to be a routine event for our diplomacy. However, it has caused a split in the ranks of the domestic elite. We do not agree with all of our interlocutors, but we decided to publish this post to understand the mood at the top.
“We have serious problems in the Kursk region. Part of our territory has been under enemy control for a week now . And at this time, the president is holding meetings with the Palestinians. Is this so important now?” asks a prominent retired general of the Ministry of Internal Affairs .
According to a source in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs , the meeting with Abbas is important in light of the escalation in the Middle East. However, the diplomat agreed off the record that, against the backdrop of the Middle East, there are problems within the country. Now the most important thing for all of us is to quickly drive the enemy out of the Kursk region, he says. The channel's interlocutor in the army leadership was cautious in his assessments. He noted that the president is aware of the situation in the Kursk region, but overall the resources aimed at containing the enemy are insufficient. Against this background, the general considers demonstrative meetings with foreign leaders to be untimely, but he did not publicly criticize the president. We agree that it is not worth criticizing the president in war conditions. We are convinced that the Kremlin understands the need for a quick response to the Kursk breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4507
Russia has a declining population and labor shortage, but they are probably not discussing moving the Palestinians from Gaza to Russia.
A Russian soldier captured by Ukraine recorded himself looting an abandoned house in the Kursk region. The video was reportedly retrieved from his mobile phone. It potentially corroborates reports of widespread looting from their own civilians by the Russian military. ⬇️
In the video, the man shows himself wandering around the house’s ransacked interior. The building appears to have been damaged, probably by shelling. He complains that “the Ministry of Defence” (i.e. the Army) have been there before him and have stripped the house.
3/ At least three of his colleagues are visible in and around the building’s garage. Describing it as “rich” (in loot, presumably), he says they are “cleaning it [out]”.
4/ It’s not clear which force the man is from, but his reference to “the Ministry of Defence” suggests that he’s not Army. It’s most likely that he’s a member of the Rosgvardiya (Russian National Guard) which answers directly to Putin.
The video helps to corroborate a report today that “rampant looting” by Russian forces has broken out in frontline regions in the path of the Ukrainian advance. It appears that the Russians are having serious problems with military indiscipline.
xxx
9/ The video suggests that there’s been a major breakdown in Russian command and control along the frontlines – they would probably not be looting if they had an officer with them. The men in the video were most likely wandering around without any orders. /end
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1823003072177553458.html
This comment as well as the one 2 comments previous, both refer to possible misbehavior within the Ukraine invaded Kursk territory. This comment specifically referring to behavior of Russian soldier, and perhaps border guards, and the previous comment expressing official concern about actions and behaviors in the occupied area Elsewhere I have seen complaints that Kadyrov’s Chechen troups had left quickly when the Ukraine troops crossed the border, leaving the official Border Guards to deal with the enemy. Who knows if Chechens might be doing some of the looting of Russian homes? Then again who knows if Kadyrov may want to preserve his troops and go supervise an uprising in Chechnia? So, he is the bully who came out on top when Russia destroyed his cities and country, perhaps he has just been waiting for the RIGHT moment. Meanwhile here is an interesting Chechen related link I encountered.
“Kursk locals, conscripts share Kadyrov troop locations with Ukrainian Armed Forces
Kanal13
1.65M subscribers
8-13-2024 7:00 p.m. EDT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i15H-Op_Eg
“Since the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk region started, local residents and Russian soldiers stationed there have been willingly providing the OSINT community InformNapalm with operational information about Ramzan Kadyrov’s militants.
The hostility of Kursk residents towards Kadyrov’s forces is attributed to their abuse of civilians, while the conscripts suffer from the non-regulatory practices imposed by Kadyrov’s militants. InformNapalm relays all obtained intelligence to the Ukrainian Defense Forces and provides Russian conscripts with safe conditions for surrendering to Ukrainian forces. [Some here at FR will remember how Chechen troops with rifles assisted Russian vote collectors go door to door to collect referendum votes from east Ukraine citizens in clear plastic boxes.]
InformNapalm’s founder, Roman Burko, mentioned receiving “dozens of messages” from residents of the Kursk region who are in the combat zone.
“We are grateful to the residents of the Kursk region who risked their lives to provide information about Kadyrov’s men and assist the Ukrainian Armed Forces in liberating the Kursk region from Kremlin occupation,” emphasized Roman Burko.
Swedish media site Dagens News has an explosive report out that Ukraine’s recent invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast may have been facilitated by ‘treason’ of the Chechens who were supposedly manning the border posts there and refused to fight against the Ukrainian invasion force.
Military bloggers and analysts are abuzz with claims that Kadyrov’s troops have betrayed Russia and struck a covert agreement with Ukraine, raising serious questions about the loyalty and actions of these units, according to Ziare.
According to military bloggers known for their “Z” commentary, Kadyrov’s Akhmat unit allegedly backstabbed Russian forces by deliberately avoiding confrontation with Ukrainian troops during an offensive in the Kursk region.
A former Wagner mercenary, who goes by the name Alex Parker, has shared on his Telegram page that Kadyrov’s forces were well-informed about the Ukrainian advance and intentionally allowed them to proceed. Russian military propagandists have expressed outrage, accusing Kadyrov of betraying Russia by orchestrating a secret non-aggression pact with Ukraine.
This alleged treachery has fueled claims that Kadyrov’s men abandoned their positions and avoided combat rather than defending the Russian frontier.”
If Kadyrov decides this is the time to “liberate” Chechnia, I wish him well, as I did Prigozhin when he marched on Moscow. Then again, perhaps Kadyrov plans to finish the march on Moscow—with a different ending. Time will tell!!
The comments I referred to in my link on Chechen and official Russian activities in Kursk were 6913 and 6911.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Russian Presidential Aid Aide Alexei Dyumin to supervise Russia's “counterterrorism operation” in Kursk Oblast on August 12.[31] Russian State Duma Deputy from Kursk Oblast Nikolai Ivanov claimed that his unnamed sources confirmed that Putin entrusted Dyumin with overseeing the counterterrorist operation in Kursk Oblast after inviting him for an evening meeting on August 12.[32] Dyumin was the only non-cabinet member not connected with the military or security services who was present at Putin‘s meeting with Russian military, security, and federal and regional government officials about the situation in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts on August 12.[33] Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers and Russian insider sources similarly claimed that Dyumin assumed full powers to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, but the Kremlin did not publish an official confirmation of Dyumin’s assignment.[34] One insider source claimed that Putin directed Dyumin to coordinate all agencies involved in repelling Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.[35]One Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that he had seen a state media report announcing that Dyumin became the commander of the Russian Sever (northern) direction in Ukraine, but later claimed that he received information to the contrary.[36] Dyumin is a trusted official within Putin's close circle who is Putin's former bodyguard and former Tula Oblast governor and reportedly played a decisive role in negotiations to end the Wagner Group armed rebellion in June 2023.[37] Dyumin’s appointment is not inherently noteworthy as it is likely part of Putin's efforts to ensure that his agencies are actively working in a coordinated fashion and under the direct control of his presidential administration to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and that he remains apprised of the situation.
Dyumin’s alleged appointment sparked widespread speculation among Russian milbloggers and political commentators about Putin's disappointment in Russian security agencies and speculations about an upcoming military-political reshuffling. Several Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers claimed that Dyumin’s appointment was a sign that “Putin's team” was taking full control over the situation in Kursk Oblast after Russian security forces failed to resolve the situation without Moscow's direct intervention over the past week.[38] Several milbloggers also suggested that Dyumin’s appointment means that Putin seeks to find out why and how he was deceived about the real situation in Kursk Oblast, and many speculated that Dyumin’s report will determine the fate of several high-ranking Russian officials and commanders.[39] Some milblogggers and political commentators continued to speculate that Dyumin is preparing to become the next defense minister.[40] This speculation is not new, however, given that some Russian milbloggers have long advocated for Dyumin’s to become defense minister.[41]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13-2024
Aleksey Gennadyevich Dyumin (Russian: Алексей Геннадьевич Дюмин; born 28 August 1972) is a Russian politician serving as Secretary of the State Council since 2024. Previously, he served as the chief security guard and assistant of Russian president Vladimir Putin before being promoted to lead the Russian military's Special Operations Forces, where he oversaw the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The following year, he became Deputy Minister of Defense. From 2016 to 2024, he served as the Governor of Tula Oblast. He holds the rank of lieutenant general and was awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation.
Will there be mobilization?
The failure of the defense in the Kursk region is pushing the Kremlin to make an unpopular and unwanted decision. We are talking about a new wave of mobilization. To analyze the situation, let's go through the points.
What is happening now? Officially, the presidential decree remains in effect. This means that no additional decisions are needed to carry out mobilization. At the same time, the focus is now on attracting contract soldiers (for a lot of money), foreign citizens (including migrants who are already in Russia), as well as recruitment into paramilitary formations (PMCs).
What are the plans? Obviously, the Kursk breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was an unpleasant surprise for all of us. Including the Kremlin and the military. By the way, a number of resignations are expected in the intelligence services. The mobilization of the population was planned to be delayed until the last minute (or even not carried out at all), but in general, this word has begun to be heard more and more often at closed meetings.
What to expect? And most importantly - when? According to our information, active mobilization may continue as early as September. With an increase in pace in October and November. In total, by the end of the year, they propose to add about 300 thousand mobilized troops . Including contract soldiers, the figure will be about 350-400 thousand.
Mobilization is also considered as a strong gesture in the conditions of future negotiations, say sources in the Kremlin's political bloc. Moscow believes that Kiev is not ready for such a protracted conflict (let us recall that the same sentiments were before the start of the SVO). At the same time, the addition of 400 thousand people should cover the losses of the Russian Armed Forces not only in the Kursk region, but also in the DPR. It is no secret that the advance there, although continuing, is with heavy losses.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4512
The losses > half a million, and no time for training and lack of equipment. When will the Kremlin realize it's over.
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