Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Medvedev has 1.5-2 years left?
Sources close to Dmitry Medvedev informed us about the results of his examination. The results are disappointing - Dmitry Anatolyevich has no more than two years left, doctors believe. His illness turned out to be advanced, metastases were found in several organs.
The interlocutors note that Medvedev is in a depressed mood and cannot find a place for himself. Doctors say that if the situation worsens, the patient may die in 1.5 years. Medvedev himself is worried that he may not see the end of the SVO and our Victory. As is known, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4357
This will be a test to find out if the blogger is trustworthy.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2024
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed that Russia would not accept or uphold any negotiated peace settlements with Kyiv short of Ukrainian capitulation, the destruction of the entire Ukrainian state, and the full occupation of Ukraine. Medvedev stated on July 10 that even if Kyiv agrees to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most recent conditions for peace — namely recognizing Russia’s territorial claims over eastern and southern Ukraine, including territory that Russia does not currently occupy, and pledging not to join NATO — and signs documents resulting in Ukrainian surrender, these actions will not constitute the “end of the Russian military operation” in Ukraine.[32]
Medvedev stated that even if Ukraine surrenders, Russia will eventually still need to destroy the remaining Ukrainian “radicals” and return “remaining [Ukrainian] lands to the bosom of the Russian land.” Medvedev also implied that Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will likely take place only after there is a radical change within the Ukrainian government and that this can only occur after Ukrainian society stages a “third bloody Maidan” revolution in response to a ceasefire agreement and Ukraine’s willingness to abandon prospects for NATO accession. Medvedev insinuated that the Kremlin plans to continue its conquest of Ukraine following a negotiated peace agreement. Medvedev’s argumentation also indicates that the Kremlin believes that the full conquest of Ukraine will be easier if Kyiv accepts deeply unpopular ceasefire agreements and concessions at the current stage of the war, in anticipation that Ukrainian society would demand a government change that could benefit the Kremlin. The Kremlin has misread domestic Ukrainian sentiment before, however. Ukrainian officials have long warned that the Kremlin launched an elaborate “Maidan 3” information campaign, which aims to undermine the Ukrainian government likely in order to trigger a government change and establish a pro-Kremlin government in Ukraine.[33]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2024
In both
1. Complimentary assessment of one's own past and present (obligatory exception - the era of the previous leader)
2. Identification of the country, state, people and the current political regime
3. Emphasis on the national exclusivity of the country
4. Mandatory ideological loyalty based on the fact of birth/citizenship
5. Positioning the West as the main direction of military and existential threat
6. Presentation of weakness, injustice, immorality and historical impasse of opponent countries
7. Emphasis on interaction with the right third world against the wrong first, whose actions are assessed as colonial and imperialistic
8. Glorification of military service
9. Pressure of the state on the family in the struggle for educational functions
10. Avoidance of reflection on the social stratification of society
Not in the Soviet version
1. Promoting the word “patriotism” as a key ideological element (in Soviet times it was present in the design, but did not dominate and rather assisted other ideals)
2. Traditionalism. Emphasis on the danger from various minorities and the need to publicly confront them
3. Cultural homogenization (in fact, it existed, but it was not encouraged out loud)
4. Geopolitical rivalry (in Soviet ideology it was formulated differently, the word “geopolitics” did not exist) and the idea of a multipolar world
5. Emphasis on the unconditional priority of national interests without formulating them
6. Appeal to nuclear weapons as a last resort
7. Lack of value of international partnership
8. Emphasized complementarity to China and the need to apologize to residents of the local South (and in general the existential nature of the topic of apologies beyond kindergarten and primary school)
9. Moral empathy with accentuated violence
10. Sympathy with the idea of promoting the previous century as a “golden” one
Not included in the Russian version
1. Internationalism
2. Atheism
3. Humanism (even if declarative)
4. Progressivism (and as its element – a bright future on the horizon of varying degrees of achievability)
5. Anti-capitalism, references to the scientific validity of the economic course
6. Criticism of consumer values
7. Collectivism and egalitarianism. The contours of the priority of the collective over the individual are present, but are not formulated out loud, except in individual cases
8. The presence of obligations to citizens by the state and their popularization as an advantage of the social system
9. Encouragement (sometimes declarative) of social mobility
10. The struggle for peace and disarmament (including nuclear)
Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. CNN reported on July 11 that five US and Western officials stated that US intelligence uncovered a Kremlin plan in early 2024 to assassinate German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.[1] US intelligence reportedly informed the German government, which was able to foil the plot. CNN reported that the planned assassination against Papperger was one of multiple plans to kill European defense industry executives, but that the plot against Papperger was the “most mature.” European authorities have reported that Russian actors and proxies have conducted sabotage and other hybrid warfare operations aimed at deterring and disrupting Western aid to Ukraine, and NATO and its member states have repeatedly warned about intensifying Russian hybrid operations on NATO member territory.[2]
Finnish authorities reported an increase in GPS “malfunctions” in the past week and that most disruptions to aviation and maritime GPS and radar originate from within Russia.[3] Finnish federal transport and communications agency Traficom told Finnish outlet Iltalehti on July 11 that GPS “malfunctions” have increased in the past week in reference to a specific incident in the Gulf of Finland overnight on July 10-11.[4] A Finnish maritime pilot reported on X (formerly Twitter) that he experienced severe GPS and radar malfunctions overnight while guiding other boats near Kotka and Hamina on Finland's southern coast.[5] The pilot published footage of his radar malfunctioning and reported that GPS was unavailable for 90 percent of the route between the Orrengrund pilot substation and Hamina harbor.[6] Reports of increased GPS and radar disruptions in the Gulf of Finland cohere with reports of Russian GPS jamming affecting Baltic states and other areas of Europe. Likely Russian jamming from Kaliningrad has previously jammed the GPS of a plane carrying then–UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps and forced Finnish aircraft carrier Finnair to ground multiple flights out of Finland.[7] The GPS interference in the Baltics forced Finnair to cancel flights to Tartu, Estonia until the Tartu airport implemented an approach solution for planes flying into the airport that does not rely on GPS.[8] Russia's apparent GPS jamming is likely part of Russia's intensifying hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states likely aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and NATO unity.[9]
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it prevented a terrorist attack against an Orthodox church in Maykop, Republic of Adygea on July 11.[22] The FSB claimed that a man from Central Asia, supposedly affiliated with an unspecified international terrorist organization, planned to murder the church's clergy and security guards and burn down the church. The FSB claimed that officers found and seized prohibited materials, the flag of an unspecified terrorist organization, a knife, and components of an incendiary device belonging to the man. The Russian government opened an investigation into the terrorist attack.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2024
The front is talking about problems with armored vehicles. Can it be solved? And most importantly, is it necessary?
Almost the entire 2024 there has been a shortage of armored vehicles at the front. And here is a complex problem that is worth talking about. We are talking not only about tanks, but also about infantry fighting vehicles, MT-LBs and other types of armor used by troops in the SVO zone.
The main problem is that the active use of FPV drones by the parties has essentially led to the fact that they are trying not to use armored vehicles near the immediate front line. After all, this is a priority target for the enemy. However, in the first six months, we suffered very serious losses in this component. We will not disclose the figures, although we know them.
In addition, the capabilities of our defense industry to repair and produce armored vehicles do not allow us to replenish losses in time. It is for this reason that motorcycles, golf carts, cars and even, according to some sources, large electric scooters are actively used.
Our sources in the Ministry of Defense say that the problem with armor can be solved by either purchasing it from outside or expanding production and repairs in-house. Or better yet, both. However, our sources assure us that there is no urgent need for this. “Armor is a priority target for a drone pilot on the battlefield. And no one is in a hurry to fly for a motorcycle,” the source said. At the same time, the army is quite skeptical about the fact that it is necessary to attack enemy positions essentially without cover.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4362
According to the agency, the crew of the vehicle's carrier, the rescue ship of Russia's Northern Fleet Mikhail Rudnitsky, “lost control” while launching AS-36 on July 1. The ship's hull and the AS-36 collided, the agency said. “As a result of the incident, the Russian deep-sea vehicle sustained damage that does not allow it to continue testing,” military intelligence wrote on Telegram.
The AS-36 has reportedly been modernized at the shipyard in St. Petersburg since 2017. Russia is currently assessing the damage and time required to repair the vehicle, the agency said.
Ukraine's Navy said in June that the Russian anti-submarine ship Admiral Levchenko was on fire in the Barents Sea after an engine malfunctioned and caught fire. Around 30% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet had been destroyed by Ukrainian forces as of December 2023, according to the Ukrainian military.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-deep-sea-vehicle-damaged/
>
This photo from August 2000 Kursk-rescue operation shows how the salvage ship Mikhail Ruditsky attempts to put one of the mini-subs of the AS-class on sea. Photo: Russian Northern Fleet
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024
The Kremlin continues to intensify efforts to encourage self-censorship among information space voices and consolidate physical control over internet infrastructure. Russian State Duma Information Policy Committee member Anton Nemkin stated on July 11 that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor will crack down against users registering for anonymous social media accounts by forcing applications, including Telegram and WhatsApp, to require phone numbers to register for an account and to establish communications with telecommunications companies to prevent Russians from registering accounts using gray market SIM cards.[30] Nemkin stated that Roskomnadzor will work with Telegram and WhatsApp specifically but will develop new rules for user verification and content moderation by late 2024 or late 2025. The Russian Ministry of Justice designated two small, anonymous Russian Telegram channels claiming to have insider information about the Russian government, VChK-OGPU and Russkiy Criminal, as foreign agents on July 12, just one day after announcing that Roskomnadzor may require channels with a daily audience of more than 1,000 people to provide identifying information in the future.[31] Russian opposition outlet Astra stated that the Russian Ministry of Justice alleged that the administrators of the two insider source channels are two defendants in an extortion case involving Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov.[32] The Kremlin likely means to punish these channels in order to illustrate to the rest of the Russian ultranationalist information space that Russians cannot hide behind anonymous Telegram accounts to spread criticisms or rumors about the Kremlin without retribution.
Russian authorities are also throttling speeds for users accessing certain Western social media sites likely to discourage the use of these sites ahead of possible domestic bans. Nemkin stated that Roskomnadzor is not currently considering blocking WhatsApp like it has other Western social media sites but noted that Russia is applying “technological measures such as slowdowns” to WhatsApp, particularly in the Republic of Dagestan.[33] Russia’s largest telecommunications operator Rostelecom stated on July 12 that Russians may experience slow load times and low video resolution when accessing YouTube regardless of telecom operator due to a lack of servers hosting content within Russia, but a telecom source told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that this narrative is false.[34] The Russian telecom source instead claimed that Russian authorities have begun deliberately slowing down speeds for users accessing YouTube within Russia, and Meduza cited the University of Michigan’s Censored Planet project as saying that Roskomnadzor used its specialized TSPU (technical means of countering threats) system to slow down access to X (formerly Twitter) in 2021.[35] Russian news outlet Gazeta reported that Russia is considering blocking YouTube in September 2024, but Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied such reports.[36]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-12-2024
Blogger close to Wagner on the planned Islamist attack in the Republic of Adygea on July 11 https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6725#6725
The Public Relations Center (PRC) of the FSB of Russia published footage of the detention by fighters of the Regional Department of Special Purpose (ROSN) and operatives of the Department for Combating Terrorism of the UFSB of Russia for the Republic of Adygea of a suspect who intended to set fire to a Christian church in the city of Maykop and then kill its clergyman.
The detainee was a native of Tajikistan, who already had a Russian passport. According to him, he was a supporter of the international terrorist organization Islamic State, apparently its Afghan cell Vilayet Khorasan/IS-VKh.
As in the case of the terrorist attack in the Moscow concert hall Crocus City Hall, after committing the terrorist attack, the militant planned to fly to Turkey. And in the same way, the suspect is a native of Tajikistan. Also, according to him, he intended to commit the terrorist attack not alone.
i.e. ISKP not ISIS
.
Wow, did you see the news today??? I wonder how the Russians will react to the shooting at trump’s rally. Or, if they might have had something to do with it?
Russian newspapers write about it much like what is written in other countries.
Russia and Iran continue to signal their commitment to deepening bilateral relations and multilateral cooperation. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian published an article in the Tehran Times on July 12 in which Pezeshkian praised the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russia for standing by Iran during “challenging times.”[4] Pezeshkian stated that Russia is a “valued strategic ally and neighbor” to Iran and that his government will remain committed to expanding and prioritizing bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Russia, including through BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Pezeshkian claimed that Iran “strives for peace” between Russia and Ukraine and is prepared to support initiatives aimed at peace. Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexei Dedov stated during an interview with Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published on July 13 that Russia will pursue the same strategic course with Iran under Pezeshkian as Russia pursued under deceased Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.[5] Dedov claimed that Russia is prepared to consider peace mediation proposals from Iran, although Russian President Vladimir Putin recently rejected the possibility of any third-party mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine.[6] Dedov stated that Russia and Iran will sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in the “foreseeable future,” but did not provide a concrete timeline for this agreement.
A detained Russian businessman and a Russian military official who were reportedly connected to detained former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov recently died on the same day. Russian media reported that Igor Kotelnikov, a businessman accused of bribing senior officials in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), died of heart failure in a detention facility in Moscow on July 8.[7] A Russian insider source claimed that Russian Federal Security (FSB) officers were attempting to pressure Kotelnikov to testify against Ivanov and other unnamed MoD officials when Kotelnikov fell ill in solitary confinement.[8] A Wagner-affiliated milblogger claimed that Kotelnikov had agreed with FSB military counterintelligence to testify against Ivanov.[9] Russian media reported that the head of the MoD’s State Examination Department and Ivanov’s former subordinate, Magomed Khandayev, also died on July 8 in Moscow of unspecified causes.[10] Russian authorities reportedly questioned Khandayev as a witness in Ivanov’s case, but Khandayev was not facing any criminal charges of his own.[11] Russian authorities arrested Ivanov on April 24, 2024, on charges of accepting bribes, and Ivanov’s arrest was the first arrest part of an ongoing large-scale removal of Russian defense officials.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13-2024
Chinese military undertaking joint exercises near Polish border, raising concern in Poland and in NATO. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said that as part of what it called “anti-terrorism” exercises, troops will practice airborne assault, river crossing and residential combat. The 11-day drill, Eagle Assault 2024, started on Monday in the Brest region, 40 miles (64 km) from Belarus’ border with Ukraine. More than 100 Chinese troops are expected to remain in Belarus until July 19. China's exercises with Belarusian forces in Belarus are part of a pattern, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said at the summit in Washington this week. “This only confirms how authoritarian regimes are increasingly allying with each other, and how China is moving closer to NATO in Europe, Africa, the Arctic and elsewhere,” he added.
“The joint military maneuvers of China and Belarus are not directed against any country, and the Chinese authorities hope that Poland and Belarus will solve their problems through dialogue and consultations,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has close ties with Russia. In 2023, it allowed Russia to move some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and has also sought close relations with China. Belarus recently joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, established in 2001 to discuss security concerns in Central Asia.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/poland-closely-monitoring-china-belarus-military-cooperation/3273355
Separate operation
July 13 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Saturday that tensions had subsided at his country's border with Ukraine and extra troops deployed there were being sent back to their bases.
Belarus's defence ministry said late last month that it was reinforcing its border after a security incident and in response to a Ukrainian troop buildup. They said a division of multiple launch rocket systems had been deployed to test their combat readiness. Lukashenko, quoted by the official BelTA news agency during a tour of a border region, said that Belarusian intelligence had determined that Ukraine had withdrawn troops from sensitive areas. “That means that those (Ukrainian) troops which had been brought in as reinforcements are now gone,” BelTA quoted him as saying. “...There are now no difficulties with the Ukrainians and I hope there will be none.”
A spokesperson for Ukraine's border guards, in a statement posted online, dismissed the notion of an extra deployment. “From the outset the Belarusians created this threat for themselves and then lifted the very same threat,” it said.
Russia had said the Belarusian statements and deployment were “cause for concern”. Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory to launch the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but has made plain he has no intention of committing troops to the conflict.
Russian blogger on the operation at the Ukrainian border:
With the attack of Ukraine on Belarus, everything turned out as we predicted. Lukashenko was offended by Putin. As we wrote in early July, there was no attack of Ukraine on Belarus. This was quite officially stated by Alexander Lukashenko. We predicted such an outcome from the very beginning.
At the same time, Belarusian sources claim that Lukashenko was offended by Vladimir Putin. “Alexander Grigoryevich says that signals about the attack of Ukraine came from Russia. And it turns out that he was made a fool. And Vladimir Vladimirovich could not help but know about it. It is unpleasant,” explained the interlocutor in the entourage of the President of Belarus. Our sources in the Kremlin called such claims “strange.” “Lukashenko sometimes does ridiculous things. Sometimes he praises the Ukrainians, sometimes he makes some peace proposals without coordinating with Vladimir Vladimirovich. He should be more careful,” noted the high-ranking interlocutor in the Presidential Administration.
21-year-old Sgt Mateusz Sitek from the Polish village of Nowy Lubiel was killed after a group of migrants reportedly from Africa and the Middle East attempting to cross the Polish border hurled a volley of makeshift weapons at officers.
Several more were injured during the clash.
The improvised weapons appear to have been made out of tree branches and steel blades taped to the top.
Waves of migrants arriving at the gates of the EU via Belarus and meeting border guards with aggression is becoming increasingly more common.
The situation at the European Union's eastern border is increasingly under pressure from thousands of people from the Middle East, Asia and Africa, trying to force their way through a metal barrier that Poland put up in 2022 to seal the frontier.
The increasing waves of migrants arriving at the gates of the EU via Belarus are moving with the quiet helping hand of Russia, Polish officials believe, in President Vladimir Putin's latest war tactic against the West.
Latest figures from the Polish Border Guard say there have been some 17,000 attempts at illegally crossing the border this year.
Consequence: Poland's Parliament votes overwhelmingly in favor of a new law that allows soldiers, border guards and police officers to fire live ammunition when stopping attempts by migrants to storm the border.
401 MPs voted for the new law, 17 against
Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. Russian sources circulated footage on July 13 and 14 of two security guards armed with anti-drone guns seemingly watching a Ukrainian drone strike the oil depot without attempting to shoot down the drone and criticized the security guards for not defending the depot.[1] Russian sources alleged that Russian authorities have attempted to absolve themselves of responsibility for Ukrainian drone strikes by ordering Russian facilities to hire their own security and questioned why the Russian government has not organized mobile fire groups similar to Ukraine's mobile fire groups that defend against Russian Shahed-136/131 drone strikes.[2] Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and Zaporizhia Oblast occupation senator Dmitry Rogozin responded to milblogger criticism on July 14 and claimed that Rosgvardia - a security agency tasked with protecting Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s regime from internal threats and some critical infrastructure - does not have the necessary manpower to set up defense posts at every critical facility in Russia.[3] Rogozin suggested that Russia should form, train, and equip specialized BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) volunteer units to provide technical and armed protection of critical energy and transport infrastructure facilities and called on the Russian government and Russian President Vladimir Putin to consider his proposal. Rogozin supervises several BARS units including the Russian BARS-10 Battalion of the “Tsarskiye Volki” Brigade, and owners of Russian irregular formations have previously attempted to use threats to Russian territory in order to advocate for their forces to move from frontline areas in Ukraine to defend Russia's rear and border areas.[4] Russian milbloggers have routinely complained about the Russian government's inability to address and repel Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure.[5]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2024
Belousov prayed before the relics of the great saint shortly before negotiations with the head of the Pentagon
The recent conversation between Andrei Belousov and the head of the Pentagon Austin was fraught with serious difficulties. The minister was helped to organize the conversation and “carry it out with great benefit for Russia” by praying before the relics of Saint Matrona of Moscow, some of which were previously taken to the front and to sites important to Russia.
A source in the Ministry of Defense told us about this. “Andrei Removich prayed near the relics of Mother Matronushka. Specifically, near those relics that were at the front, near which our officer died there . And she helped him. The conversation with the American was very successful, we just can't tell you everything yet,” he noted.
Before this, Belousov prayed before the relics of Matrona of Moscow shortly before our successful strike on Kiev .
It is worth noting that Andrei Removich also has a “slight disappointment” - despite the fact that the relics of Matrona of Moscow were transported to a number of oil refineries and oil depots, the enemy's attacks on them continue, causing us serious damage. But the Minister of Defense believes that the situation in this matter will improve.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4374
They seem genuinely scared and believe that magic will help.
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