Russian military convoy has advanced from Ivankiv to outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show (17 miles long)

A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.

On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.

Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.

The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.

Russian blogger:

FSB Eliminates Iranian Agent in Makhachkala

FSB officers, while attempting to detain him, eliminated an Iranian citizen who was likely working for the country’s special services. This information was confirmed to us by two sources - among the Dagestan authorities and in the FSB itself.

The sources specify that intelligence information was received about the appearance in the city of several suspicious men who could be connected to each other. In particular, one of them was put under surveillance. During an attempt to detain him on the outskirts of the city, he opened fire, killing two special service officers.

The Iranian himself was wounded, as a result of which he died. On instructions from Moscow, it was ordered not to disclose the information publicly. A dialogue is currently underway at the interstate level. Official Moscow does not want to spoil relations with such an important ally as Tehran. At the same time, the FSB is outraged that the Union Republic is engaged in espionage on the territory of our country.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4338

I haven’t found anyone else writing about this, so unsure of the veracity.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2024

The Russian government continues efforts to isolate the Russian people from material it considers antithetical to state interests and ideology. Russian federal censor Rozkomnadzor announced on July 4 that it recently blocked Russians from accessing 25 mobile virtual private network (VPN) services.[12] Russian outlet RBK reported on July 4 that it obtained a letter from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) demanding that Russian telecom operators prohibit clients from using foreign- and domestic-based Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) accounts, which allow clients to make phone calls via an Internet connection instead of a traditional phone line and are more difficult to trace.[13] The FSB alleged that the VoIP prohibition will help reduce fraud.[14] Rozkomnadzor announced in April 2024 that it began blocking 150 popular VPN services and restricting access to websites and social media posts that advertise VPNs as of March 1, 2024.[15] Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology, and Communication Deputy Chairperson Oleg Matveychev stated in October 2023 that Rozkomnadzor is maintaining a list of VPNs that “comply” with existing Russian legislation and will continue to operate in Russia while Rozkomnadzor will block VPNs that “violate Russian laws.”[16] Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia clarified in March 2024 that Rozkomnadzor considers any VPN services that allow Russians to access prohibited content and resources as violating Russian law and eligible to be blocked.[17]

The Russian Ministries of Education, Higher Education, Science, and Culture have approved a plan to develop criteria for an annual review of works of literature, art, media, or other materials to determine if a work uses an “excessive” amount of foreign vocabulary.[18] The order claims that developing the criteria is part of the Russian government’s efforts to protect Russia against “external destructive information, psychological influence, ... and activities aimed at destroying [Russia’s] traditional values.” The Kremlin’s efforts to ban VPNs and identify works that employ “excessive use of foreign vocabulary” are part of ongoing efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space and promote further Russian nationalist values domestically.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-6-2024

Leaks reveal how Russia's foreign intelligence agency runs disinformation campaigns in the West

The Insider has obtained hacked correspondence from officers of Russia's foreign intelligence agency (SVR) responsible for “information warfare” with the West. The leaked documents, intended for various government agencies, reveal the Kremlin's strategy: spreading disinformation on sensitive Western topics, posting falsehoods while posing as radical Ukrainian and European political forces (both real and specially created), appealing to emotions — primarily fear — over rationality, and utilizing new internet platforms instead of outdated ones like RT and Sputnik. The documents also detail localized campaigns against Russian émigrés, including efforts to discredit a fundraiser for Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation who had moved to the United States.

This method of hijacking and then discrediting a cause from within through extremist posturing is hallowed tradecraft to the Russian special services.

The most notorious example was Operation Trust, an early and unmitigated success of Felix Dzherzinsky’s Cheka, the forerunner of the KGB, which used much the same strategy with respect to the anti-Bolshevik White Russian diaspora in Europe. Agents sent by Moscow to infiltrate the ranks of this exile movement sowed discord within it and offered false assurances of widespread support back home, leading to the leadership being lured into Chekist-constructed traps in Russia and, ultimately, the delegitimization of White Russian organizations abroad.

In October, not long after Hamas’s attack on Israel, hundreds of Stars of David were spray-painted on the walls of Jewish institutions all over Paris, images of which went viral online. The culprits were actually a Russian-speaking couple from Moldova who were caught in the act and explained they had been recruited to do this false-flag operation via the Telegram messenger. This campaign is redolent of a former KGB Directorate D operation in the 1950s in which Soviet and East German agents desecrated Jewish cemeteries and synagogues in West Germany in order to exaggerate the threat of recrudescent Nazism.

https://theins.press/en/politics/272870

Russian blogger:

The relics of the great saint were taken to the front and to the oil refineries that the enemy is hitting. Belousov expects the situation to improve in the near future

We wrote that Andrei Belousov was going to send the relics of Saint Matrona of Moscow to the front. The implementation of the minister's plan has already begun. According to sources in the Ministry of Defense, part of the relics of the great saint were placed in a special armored ark and were transported for about a week - to rear units and directly along the front line.

“Several times the holy relics could have been lost, once our officer protected them with his chest from fragments of an enemy shell and, unfortunately, died. But the relics remained intact. Now our missilemen are better at hitting the enemy, and the troops are advancing faster at the front. And the relics remained unharmed. A real miracle! “ - an interlocutor in Belousov’s entourage told us about this.

According to him, “the relics were transported especially long and actively to oil refineries, which are being hit by Ukrainian Nazis with their drones. And Andrei Removich hopes that in the near future these strikes will either stop or lose all effectiveness.”

Incidentally, part of the ashes of Alexander Suvorov continue to be transported along the front line. But Belousov believes that the remains of the great commander “are not effective enough.” According to the Minister of Defense, this may be due to the fact that they were damaged during one of the shellings.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4342

Back to the Middle Ages!

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2024

Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces likely coerced a Russian milblogger to issue a public apology after he criticized “Akhmat” forces – an illustrative example of unprofessionalism in the Russian military. An often-critical Russian milblogger claimed on June 5 that “TikTokers” are “standing behind” conscripts in Belgorod Oblast, insinuating that Chechen “Akhmat” forces are not contributing to ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction.[16] The milblogger later published an apology video on July 7 in which the milblogger is sitting with a soldier from the “Akhmat” Spetsnaz “Aida” Detachment and acknowledged that he was referring to “Akhmat” forces as “TikTokers.[17] The milblogger claimed on July 7 that he met with “Akhmat” Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov and that Akhmat forces are actually fighting on the frontline in the Kharkiv direction. The milblogger notably pointedly criticized the Russian military command for Russia’s lack of progress and significant losses in the Vovchansk direction in the July 5 video but only focused his July 7 apology on his comments about “Akhmat” forces.[18] Russian milbloggers have previously criticized “Akhmat” forces for not contributing to Russian military operations and only visiting frontline areas for propaganda purposes, and Chechen officials have tried to publicly restore “Akhmat’s” reputation.[19] The Kremlin has recently undertaken measures that have successfully limited criticisms of the Russian military in the Russian information space, and Alaudinov’s immediate involvement in the issue after the milblogger’s July 5 video demonstrates the extreme measures that select members of the Russian military command are able to take to suppress critical voices.[20] The “Akhmat” forces’ response to the milblogger’s video also demonstrates the widespread unprofessionalism that is pervasive throughout the Russian military, since it appears that the “Akhmat” forces took matters affecting their reputations into their own hands.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2024

NATO officials have “strong suspicions” that Russia may have mined critical EU submarine infrastructure in the North Sea, the British newspaper The Times reported.

According to the publication, such fears are based on data obtained from companies managing key oil and gas rigs, pipelines, electricity and telecommunications cables.

Electricity and telephone cables, as well as oil and gas pipelines, were key targets for Russian intelligence services, especially after the start of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the article states.

According to the Belgian security services, no evidence of cable mining in Belgian or Dutch territorial waters in the North Sea was found. However, at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, explosives were found on one of the British cables.

A study by Belgian newspaper De Tijd, which used information from ship logs, found that more than 160 non-military Russian vessels had engaged in 945 suspicious activities over the past decade. At least 749 of the 945 suspicious maneuvers were carried out within one kilometer of pipelines in the North Sea, The Times material indicated. Another 72 suspicious actions were made in the area where electricity cables are located, and the remaining 124 - in areas where telecommunications cables are laid.

“Russian knowledge of where cables and pipelines run is crucial if the Russians want to sabotage energy communications systems, tap into or manipulate communications cables, British journalists emphasize.

In general, the scale of operations of Russian security services abroad has reached a level “not seen since the Cold War,” the publication says. Observers believe that Moscow “has had to rely increasingly on foreign nationals and, in particular, representatives of the criminal world” to rebuild its network of agents after the expulsion of hundreds of Russian spies working in Western countries under the guise of diplomats.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1807332507634831720

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2024

A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated that Russian forces conducted two rounds of combined missile strikes on July 8—first launching four Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast overnight on July 7 to 8, and then launching a second wave of missiles, including one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Zircon cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, and three Kh-59/69 guided air missiles around 1000 local time on July 8.[1] Ukrainian air defense shot down two Kh-101s in the first wave, and one Kh-47, three Iskanders, 11 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs, and three Kh-59/69s during the second wave.[2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces targeted residential and other civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk cities.[3]

Footage taken by a bystander in Kyiv City shows the second before a Russian missile struck the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital—Ukraine's largest pediatric hospital that treats thousands of patients, including cancer cases, daily.[4] The footage clearly shows a single missile flying at a sharp downward trajectory before making contact with the hospital building. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted a preliminary investigation of the blast site at Okhmatdyt and concluded that Russian forces used a Kh-101 missile to strike the hospital.[5] The Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital published footage showing extensive damage to medical facilities on the premises.[6] Falling debris from Russian missiles also struck the Isida Maternity Hospital in western Kyiv City after the initial strike on the Okhmatdyt hospital, and Russian missile strikes also damaged residential infrastructure elsewhere both in Kyiv and Dnipro cities.[7] The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed 22 deaths and 74 injured in Kyiv City and 11 deaths and 64 injured within Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as of the time of this publication.[8] Zelensky announced that Ukraine is convening an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in response to these Russian strikes.[9] Russia is currently the president of the UNSC.

Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital — all contrary to available evidence. The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation warned on July 9 that various Russian propaganda sources are amplifying a wide variety of information operations deflecting blame for the strike away from Russia, including false claims that Ukraine was using part or all of the hospital to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers, that Ukraine was storing missiles at the hospital, and that Ukrainian air defense missiles and not a Russian missile hit the hospital.[10] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that available footage “clearly confirms” that falling Ukrainian air defense missiles damaged civilian objects within Kyiv City, likely referring to the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital and not to another medical facility within the city that Ukrainian officials acknowledged was damaged by falling missile debris.[11] Russian sources widely circulated the footage and image of the missile in the second before it hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, and some milbloggers even published misleading posts falsely claiming that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile and not an attacking Russian Kh-101 missile.[12] The trajectory of the missile in the video and the visible turbojet engine under its hull match the frame of a Russian Kh-101 and do not support claims that it was an air defense interceptor, nor does the missile appear damaged by air defense interceptors.[13] The Ukrainian SBU also reported that the serial numbers of the missile components match those of other Russian Kh-101s launched at Ukraine.[14] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were attempting to strike the Artem machine building plant roughly 1.6 kilometers north of the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, but other Russian missiles actually hit the Artem Plant during the strike.[15]

Many of these false Russian information operations would not absolve Russian forces of legal or moral responsibility for the impacts of their strikes against Ukraine even if true. Russian information operations falsely portraying the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital as partially or completely a military hospital falsely suggest that such a hospital is inherently a legitimate military target. The Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital is notably not a military hospital—it is the largest multidisciplinary children's hospital in Ukraine and treats up to 18,000 children per year.[16] Article 19 of the Geneva Convention, to which Russia is a signatory, relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War states that the international legal protection to civilian hospitals does not end unless the hospital undertakes “acts harmful to the enemy,” and Article 19 explicitly excludes the presence of sick or wounded military personnel as an act “harmful to the enemy.”[17] Article 19 also states that the “enemy” must give a warning prior to attacking a hospital allegedly containing a “harmful” military target, and no Russian sources are claiming that Russian authorities issued such a warning, nor have any offered proof that a hospital full of sick children was posing an imminent threat to Russian forces.[18] The Russian MoD’s claim that a Ukrainian air defense interceptor hit civilian objects and Russian milblogger claims that a Russian missile accidentally hit the hospital also do not absolve Russian forces of responsibility for these consequences, as Russia is the aggressor state in this war and Ukraine would not have to defend against Russian strikes if Russia had not launched its full-scale invasion of and routine missile strike series against Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2024

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continued to posture themselves as potential mediators to an end to the war in Ukraine during a July 8 meeting in Beijing, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of serious negotiations or any third-party mediation. Orban called the PRC a “key power” in creating conditions for peace and stated that Hungary highly appreciates the PRC's peace initiative.[23] Xi stated that the international community should support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and that other unspecified major world powers should employ “positive energy rather than negative energy” to support a ceasefire as soon as possible.[24] Xi also claimed that the PRC and Hungary share the same basic proposals to end the war. Orban and Xi are likely trying to mutually reinforce each other's efforts to portray Hungary and the PRC as neutral mediators despite Orban’s consistent efforts to oppose and undermine the European Union's (EU) support for Ukraine and increasing evidence that the PRC is supporting Russia's war effort by providing Russia with dual-use goods and unconfirmed reports of joint PRC–Russian production of loitering munitions.[25]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to a question at a July 8 press conference about whether Hungary could serve as a mediator to an end to the war and stated that only serious and strong alliances could stop the war and that a foreign country's representative holding bilateral discussions with Putin does not indicate Putin's interest in ending the war.[26] Zelensky also noted that countries with strong economies that influence Russia's economy and countries with militaries that threaten Russia's military - such as the US, the PRC, and the entire EU — could lead international mediation efforts and pressure Russia. Putin rejected Russian participation in possible ceasefire negotiations processes, denied interest in a ceasefire altogether, and demanded Ukrainian capitulation through “demilitarization” and the surrender of significant territory that Russia does not currently occupy on July 4 and 5.[27]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2024

In the case of Orban, the seamless shift from Russophobe to Russophile was so abrupt that many even in his Fidesz party found it hard to explain. Analysts date it back to November 2009, when Orban, as opposition leader, was invited to St Petersburg to meet Putin at the congress of the Kremlin-backed United Russia party. They argue Orban clearly went on a mission to put bilateral relations on a new footing, and while it is unknown what exactly happened behind closed doors, Orban heard enough to drastically change his attitude towards Russia and Putin himself.

“Since then, Orban has not made any critical statement of Putin whatsoever,” Andras Racz, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), tells BIRN.

What exactly made Orban perform such an abrupt about-turn over Russia is impossible to know for sure. Conspiracy theories about Putin holding sensitive kompromat on Orban are part of the rumour mill in Budapest, but no evidence of a secret dossier has ever been shown.

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/16/orbans-cheerleading-for-putin-follow-the-money/

Russian blogger:

“The threat of our direct war with NATO has increased”

This opinion was expressed in a conversation with us by a general close to Valery Gerasimov. “Today we launched a successful strike on Kiev. [Comment see below] I think those who organized and launched it will be awarded. A truly successful strike (by the way, sources in the Ministry of Defense also said that our missilemen began to hit the enemy better after the relics of St. Matrona of Moscow were brought to a number of military facilities - ed.). But there is a threat that after this strike the Ukrainians will receive missiles from NATO that will reach Moscow. And then everything will be very unpredictable,” he believes.

According to the military man, “to be honest, we are counting on the Americans and their allies getting cold feet. Because we are not very ready to fight NATO right now, there could be problems. Very big problems. There could be a situation where we simply will not respond to strikes on, say, Moscow, and that would be a disgrace.” When we asked him why he was telling us all this, the military man replied: “There is a war going on, and our society is very relaxed. This relaxation can play a cruel joke on us. We need to prepare.”

By the way, sources close to Sergei Sobyanin confirmed the information we published last week . They are confident that Moscow's air defense system will protect the capital “from any or almost any shelling.”

We must say something important. We support the shelling of Kiev; the enemy should not feel at ease anywhere. But there is an unpleasant moment that must be mentioned for the sake of fairness. Back in early January, after one of the strikes on Kiev, we warned that after that the enemy might be allowed to fire deep into Russian territory with Western weapons. NATO eventually made the corresponding decision , although it had been thinking about it for some time.

Why are we writing this? Simply so that our subscribers take care of their safety, just in case. At the very least, they found the nearest bomb shelter to their home or thought about where they could spend a week or two of possible escalation of hostilities and shelling. Take care of yourselves, friends! We can only defeat the enemy together!

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4347

Comment: He is referring to the bombing of the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital—Ukraine's largest pediatric hospital. Should the Kremlin reward those who were responsible? They should be arrested.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2024

Putin may have pledged to return Indian volunteers fighting in Ukraine during a private dinner with Modi in Novo-Ogaryovo, Moscow Oblast on July 8. Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra stated on July 9 that Modi “strongly” raised the need for Russia to facilitate the early discharge of Indian nationals “who have been misled” into fighting in Ukraine as part of the Russian military.[15] Kwatra stated that Russian officials promised the early discharge of Indian nationals and noted that around 35 to 50 Indian nationals have fought in Ukraine under misleading offers of high-paying “support roles” in the Russian military and that 10 of these Indian nationals already returned to India.[16] Unnamed sources told Indian news media company New Delhi Television (NDTV) that Putin personally agreed to discharge all Indian volunteers who had signed military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and pledged to facilitate the return of Indian volunteers.[17] Unnamed sources told the Indian English-language newspaper The Hindu that India expects the release of Indian volunteers within the coming weeks after Modi’s ”direct intervention” in the matter.[18] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Kremlin will not comment on these reports, although Russian state news agency TASS notably paraphrased Indian reports as stating that Indian citizens were allegedly fighting in Ukraine ”by mistake.”[19] The official Kremlin read-out of the July 8 meeting also omitted to mention the Putin-Modi discussion of Indian volunteers fighting in Ukraine.[20]

The recruitment of Indian volunteers into the Russian military is certainly not a “mistake” and is part of the Kremlin’s deceptive volunteer recruitment campaign aimed at reinforcing the frontlines in Ukraine without declaring unpopular mobilization in Russia. Indian officials announced their efforts in February 2024 to secure early discharge for 20 Indian nationals recruited into the Russian military.[21] The Indian Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) announced in March 2022 that it uncovered “a major human trafficking network” that lured Indian citizens to work in Russia but forced them to join the Russian military.[22] A group of Indian men published a video appeal in March 2024 requesting help from the Indian government to return from Russia, stating that Russian officials coerced them into joining the Russian army upon arrival to Russia on tourist visas and threatened to imprison them for 10 years.[23] Indian nationals told Reuters in March 2024 that recruiters offered permanent residency in Russia after six months of combat service.[24] The recruitment of Indian nationals is part of an ongoing Kremlin force generation campaign which began in Spring 2022 as a way for Putin to avoid declaring deeply unpopular mobilization in Russia and has continued following Putin’s partial mobilization declaration in September 2022.[25] The Kremlin entrusted a wide range of recruiters including Russian government officials, businessmen, private military companies (PMCs), and foreign nationals with recruiting any available volunteers to fight in Ukraine, often using deceptive practices and incentives.[26] ISW observed Russia commit citizens of Nepal, Cuba, Serbia, and Central Asian and African countries to combat operations in Ukraine under deceptive premises such as offers of Russian citizenship or steep financial compensations.[27]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-9-2024

Russian blogger:

Rumor has it that the laurels of Mykhailo Teplinsky haunt other generals

A week ago we wrote that, thanks to the systematic work under the command of General Mykhailo Teplinsky, our troops managed to drive the enemy out of the settlement of Krynki in the Kherson region. It was a kind of bridgehead for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper, and now it has been destroyed.

At the same time, our sources in the General Staff noted that it would be fair to award Teplinsky . But the most interesting thing began after that.

A real campaign to discredit Teplinsky began in the General Staff itself and in the Ministry of Defense. A number of generals began to secretly spread rumors about allegedly large losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Teplinsky’s area of responsibility. Also, information is circulating in high offices that allegedly arrests are being prepared, if not for Teplinsky himself, then for someone from his inner circle.

We call for an end to the attacks on a real combat general! Mykhailo Yuryevich is doing everything to bring our victory closer! And those who spread vile rumors should at least go to the front for a while! If arrests become a reality, it will greatly demotivate the personnel.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4354

read this https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6472#6472

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