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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2024

A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated that Russian forces conducted two rounds of combined missile strikes on July 8—first launching four Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast overnight on July 7 to 8, and then launching a second wave of missiles, including one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Zircon cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, and three Kh-59/69 guided air missiles around 1000 local time on July 8.[1] Ukrainian air defense shot down two Kh-101s in the first wave, and one Kh-47, three Iskanders, 11 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs, and three Kh-59/69s during the second wave.[2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces targeted residential and other civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk cities.[3]

Footage taken by a bystander in Kyiv City shows the second before a Russian missile struck the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital—Ukraine's largest pediatric hospital that treats thousands of patients, including cancer cases, daily.[4] The footage clearly shows a single missile flying at a sharp downward trajectory before making contact with the hospital building. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted a preliminary investigation of the blast site at Okhmatdyt and concluded that Russian forces used a Kh-101 missile to strike the hospital.[5] The Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital published footage showing extensive damage to medical facilities on the premises.[6] Falling debris from Russian missiles also struck the Isida Maternity Hospital in western Kyiv City after the initial strike on the Okhmatdyt hospital, and Russian missile strikes also damaged residential infrastructure elsewhere both in Kyiv and Dnipro cities.[7] The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed 22 deaths and 74 injured in Kyiv City and 11 deaths and 64 injured within Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as of the time of this publication.[8] Zelensky announced that Ukraine is convening an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in response to these Russian strikes.[9] Russia is currently the president of the UNSC.

Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital — all contrary to available evidence. The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation warned on July 9 that various Russian propaganda sources are amplifying a wide variety of information operations deflecting blame for the strike away from Russia, including false claims that Ukraine was using part or all of the hospital to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers, that Ukraine was storing missiles at the hospital, and that Ukrainian air defense missiles and not a Russian missile hit the hospital.[10] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that available footage “clearly confirms” that falling Ukrainian air defense missiles damaged civilian objects within Kyiv City, likely referring to the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital and not to another medical facility within the city that Ukrainian officials acknowledged was damaged by falling missile debris.[11] Russian sources widely circulated the footage and image of the missile in the second before it hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, and some milbloggers even published misleading posts falsely claiming that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile and not an attacking Russian Kh-101 missile.[12] The trajectory of the missile in the video and the visible turbojet engine under its hull match the frame of a Russian Kh-101 and do not support claims that it was an air defense interceptor, nor does the missile appear damaged by air defense interceptors.[13] The Ukrainian SBU also reported that the serial numbers of the missile components match those of other Russian Kh-101s launched at Ukraine.[14] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were attempting to strike the Artem machine building plant roughly 1.6 kilometers north of the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, but other Russian missiles actually hit the Artem Plant during the strike.[15]

Many of these false Russian information operations would not absolve Russian forces of legal or moral responsibility for the impacts of their strikes against Ukraine even if true. Russian information operations falsely portraying the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital as partially or completely a military hospital falsely suggest that such a hospital is inherently a legitimate military target. The Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital is notably not a military hospital—it is the largest multidisciplinary children's hospital in Ukraine and treats up to 18,000 children per year.[16] Article 19 of the Geneva Convention, to which Russia is a signatory, relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War states that the international legal protection to civilian hospitals does not end unless the hospital undertakes “acts harmful to the enemy,” and Article 19 explicitly excludes the presence of sick or wounded military personnel as an act “harmful to the enemy.”[17] Article 19 also states that the “enemy” must give a warning prior to attacking a hospital allegedly containing a “harmful” military target, and no Russian sources are claiming that Russian authorities issued such a warning, nor have any offered proof that a hospital full of sick children was posing an imminent threat to Russian forces.[18] The Russian MoD’s claim that a Ukrainian air defense interceptor hit civilian objects and Russian milblogger claims that a Russian missile accidentally hit the hospital also do not absolve Russian forces of responsibility for these consequences, as Russia is the aggressor state in this war and Ukraine would not have to defend against Russian strikes if Russia had not launched its full-scale invasion of and routine missile strike series against Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2024


6,712 posted on 07/08/2024 10:45:40 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continued to posture themselves as potential mediators to an end to the war in Ukraine during a July 8 meeting in Beijing, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of serious negotiations or any third-party mediation. Orban called the PRC a “key power” in creating conditions for peace and stated that Hungary highly appreciates the PRC's peace initiative.[23] Xi stated that the international community should support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and that other unspecified major world powers should employ “positive energy rather than negative energy” to support a ceasefire as soon as possible.[24] Xi also claimed that the PRC and Hungary share the same basic proposals to end the war. Orban and Xi are likely trying to mutually reinforce each other's efforts to portray Hungary and the PRC as neutral mediators despite Orban’s consistent efforts to oppose and undermine the European Union's (EU) support for Ukraine and increasing evidence that the PRC is supporting Russia's war effort by providing Russia with dual-use goods and unconfirmed reports of joint PRC–Russian production of loitering munitions.[25]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to a question at a July 8 press conference about whether Hungary could serve as a mediator to an end to the war and stated that only serious and strong alliances could stop the war and that a foreign country's representative holding bilateral discussions with Putin does not indicate Putin's interest in ending the war.[26] Zelensky also noted that countries with strong economies that influence Russia's economy and countries with militaries that threaten Russia's military - such as the US, the PRC, and the entire EU — could lead international mediation efforts and pressure Russia. Putin rejected Russian participation in possible ceasefire negotiations processes, denied interest in a ceasefire altogether, and demanded Ukrainian capitulation through “demilitarization” and the surrender of significant territory that Russia does not currently occupy on July 4 and 5.[27]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2024

In the case of Orban, the seamless shift from Russophobe to Russophile was so abrupt that many even in his Fidesz party found it hard to explain. Analysts date it back to November 2009, when Orban, as opposition leader, was invited to St Petersburg to meet Putin at the congress of the Kremlin-backed United Russia party. They argue Orban clearly went on a mission to put bilateral relations on a new footing, and while it is unknown what exactly happened behind closed doors, Orban heard enough to drastically change his attitude towards Russia and Putin himself.

“Since then, Orban has not made any critical statement of Putin whatsoever,” Andras Racz, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), tells BIRN.

What exactly made Orban perform such an abrupt about-turn over Russia is impossible to know for sure. Conspiracy theories about Putin holding sensitive kompromat on Orban are part of the rumour mill in Budapest, but no evidence of a secret dossier has ever been shown.

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/16/orbans-cheerleading-for-putin-follow-the-money/

6,713 posted on 07/08/2024 11:08:16 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Russian blogger:

“The threat of our direct war with NATO has increased”

This opinion was expressed in a conversation with us by a general close to Valery Gerasimov. “Today we launched a successful strike on Kiev. [Comment see below] I think those who organized and launched it will be awarded. A truly successful strike (by the way, sources in the Ministry of Defense also said that our missilemen began to hit the enemy better after the relics of St. Matrona of Moscow were brought to a number of military facilities - ed.). But there is a threat that after this strike the Ukrainians will receive missiles from NATO that will reach Moscow. And then everything will be very unpredictable,” he believes.

According to the military man, “to be honest, we are counting on the Americans and their allies getting cold feet. Because we are not very ready to fight NATO right now, there could be problems. Very big problems. There could be a situation where we simply will not respond to strikes on, say, Moscow, and that would be a disgrace.” When we asked him why he was telling us all this, the military man replied: “There is a war going on, and our society is very relaxed. This relaxation can play a cruel joke on us. We need to prepare.”

By the way, sources close to Sergei Sobyanin confirmed the information we published last week . They are confident that Moscow's air defense system will protect the capital “from any or almost any shelling.”

We must say something important. We support the shelling of Kiev; the enemy should not feel at ease anywhere. But there is an unpleasant moment that must be mentioned for the sake of fairness. Back in early January, after one of the strikes on Kiev, we warned that after that the enemy might be allowed to fire deep into Russian territory with Western weapons. NATO eventually made the corresponding decision , although it had been thinking about it for some time.

Why are we writing this? Simply so that our subscribers take care of their safety, just in case. At the very least, they found the nearest bomb shelter to their home or thought about where they could spend a week or two of possible escalation of hostilities and shelling. Take care of yourselves, friends! We can only defeat the enemy together!

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4347

Comment: He is referring to the bombing of the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital—Ukraine's largest pediatric hospital. Should the Kremlin reward those who were responsible? They should be arrested.

6,715 posted on 07/08/2024 11:41:09 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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