Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Or why not move the capital to Novosibirsk or Irkutsk and be far away from everybody, including American submarines. The idea of moving the military command to Sevastopol sounds like a joke, to scare the military oligarcks hiding in their palatial homes. Even if Putin would love to punish some of his military leaders, he probably would not do that as it would increase the motivation of Ukraine to take out his precious bridge. For the time I think that is being left intact to give a million or more Russians in Crimea a way to escape and not be a burden when Ukraine gets Crimea back.
Interesting that so far Putin has not resorted to the Stalin extreme of rapidly exeucuting swarms of his military elite. I wonder if all this firing and arresting might be occurring to allow Putin to withdraw from Ukraine and say, “it is all these General’s fault that we have not settled this Special action in Ukraine.” Thereby making many of his oligarchs happy, and With so many troops no longer dying, the Russian people who most support Putin in this warfare may be molified that, after all, it was just the fault of those crooked and incompetent military, not our beloved Putin. Maybe he could now give them butter and toilets instead of guns? I wonder how the Iran situation is now affecting Putin’s thinking?
Wait! They got toilet paper now?!
During my last trip to Yalta, was touring the famous "Swallow's Nest" with my wife, and had to "use the facilities."
There was a long line (of Russian / Ukrainian tourists), and I took my rightful place at the end of it. A minor official noticed me (i.e., recognized that I was a Westerner), and insisted on escorting me to a private lavatory reserved for Westerners; the toilet - while not up to W. European or American standards - was adequate, and the toilet paper was at least usable. In the meantime, my (Moscow-born) wife had also felt the "call of Nature." I was done pretty quickly, and had to look around for her for a while. When we finally found each other, she explained that she had used the facilities for locals: A primitive latrine and no paper.
Regards,
Well, Geoff WAS an American, so he would have been sent to the foreigners' "luxury" facilities, LOL!
Here is a Russian blogger (He only talks about corruption, but is that the real reason?):
The Kremlin is surprised by such an active general purge of Belousov. According to rumors, Shoigu may also become his “victim”. Over the past month, four generals have already been arrested in Russia. And this is not the limit.
There have never been such large-scale purges at the top of the Ministry of Defense. They began even before the departure of Sergei Shoigu, but became more active with the arrival of the new Minister of Defense. The activities of Andrei Belousov have already divided the Kremlin. Some believe that he is bringing order. Others say that his waving of a saber could end in the punishment of the innocent, and in general could have an unpleasant ending for Belousov himself. “He didn't have time to enter the ministry, and the generals were already being taken away from there. One by one. This, let's say, upsets a certain balance. And it definitely strengthens the influence of the FSB,” commented a source in the Kremlin's political bloc.
The Ministry of Defense does not hide its surprise at the scale with which Belousov launched his activities. “It turns out that everyone around was stealing, but no one knew. Neither Shoigu, nor the president. Is this how it turns out? Otherwise, why did Shoigu go for a promotion, albeit a formal one? They promised not to touch him, but the rest? Now, it turns out, anyone can find themselves between “There were rumors that at least five generals received an offer to hand over the schemes that were used to make money under Shoigu,” said an interlocutor once close to Shoigu.
Interlocutors at the FSB do not hide their interest in the schemes in the Ministry of Defense, but clarify that no one received any immunity. “If we have to, we'll get to Shoigu,” a high-ranking FSB officer told us.
It is surprising how in a number of telegram channels the information was falsely presented as a victory that General Ivan Popov was allegedly sent to house arrest instead of a pre-trial detention center. The general, as we know, remained under arrest, but now about something else.
War is always mathematics. Let's break this story down into a problem. We have a military general, a patriot and an Officer with a capital letter. There are some charges against him. By the way, it has not yet been proven.
We also have the need to lead troops at the front. Perhaps it is worth using such rare and experienced personnel more rationally? With such purges as began after Belousov’s arrival, you won't have enough generals! Who will command the army?
Turning the old corruptocrats out and bringing new corruptocrats in.
Corruption is not a way of life in Russia, it is THE way of life in Russia.
YES
Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov confirmed our information that Vladimir Putin is going to visit North Korea in the near future. We wrote about this earlier, noting that the president initially wanted to arrive there after his visit to China. According to our data, Vladimir Putin's visit to Kim Jong-un could take place as early as the second half of June, most likely towards the end of the month. Unless, of course, there are no changes.
The reason for such a rush, according to our interlocutors, is obvious - the deepening of military-technical cooperation between countries. Simply put, North Korean shells and missiles are very much needed [for the war in Ukraine]. And now the Kremlin is preparing a response package that will include some military technology, food and expanded opportunities for North Korean citizens to work in Russia.
The last point is worth talking about separately, so we will return to it in our other posts later.
500,000 in losses (dead and injured). Estimate an average of 1.8 parents, 0.4 siblings (average 1.42 children/woman) 0.4 children, 1.3 grandparents, 4 cousins, 3.7 cousins grandparents, i.e. about 12 close relatives for each. Thus, about 6 million people are related to the these.
If we assume that 15 other people know each of them (= 7.5 million), then 13 - 14 million Russians have a personal relationship with the “losses”.
Russia has a population of 144 million, but more than 1.5 million have left the country, i.e. a population of 142 million. 13.5 out of 142 = 9.5% of the Russian population have a relationship with the “losses”.
This has a major impact.
Putin hijacked Austria’s spy service. Now he’s going after its government
Culling the command Russia has arrested four generals in the past month. Here’s what we know about the Defense Ministry ‘purge.’
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/05/24/culling-the-command
Accused of working with the Russian security services, Latvian MEP Tatjana Ždanoka mockingly donned sunglasses at a press conference — as if in a spy movie. The accusations won't be laughed off that easily: Re:Baltica has obtained almost 19,000 of Ždanoka’s e-mails detailing how she served the Kremlin.
By the end of January 2014, Kyiv was simmering with unrest in the wake of President Viktor Yanukovych’s about-face on a key issue that helped win him the election four years earlier. Bowing to Kremlin pressure, he'd decided against signing an association agreement with the European Union, a stepping stone for Ukraine's greater integration with the West. Protestors swarmed and occupied the Maidan, Kyiv’s central square, demanding Yanukovych make good on his promise.
He didn't.
“My impressions are contradictory,” Ždanoka wrote to Beltyukov (her FSB handler) at his burner email account on February 6. “Yanukovych is too cunning to be unraveled in the course of a 1.5-hour conversation. But the feeling is that he is ready for a forceful scenario… On the other hand, some observers are inclined to believe that Yanukovych will sign a treaty with the EU very soon, getting maximum bonuses from all sides. He looked quite cheerful, calm and confident in his meeting with us on Monday. I thought he should have been more confused… [A]s far as the Maidan is concerned — where we walked on Sunday late in the evening, my feelings are mixed: some mixture of farce, drama, horror and comedy (with a preponderance of the third component in this list). It's not going to all dissipate that easily.”
The same day, Beltyukov replied succinctly: “Thank you!!!”
However, two weeks later the FSB dispatched its own delegation to Kyiv, led by Sergey Beseda, the head of the organization's Fifth Service, its foreign intelligence arm. Their mission was to pressure Yanukovych not to entertain an accommodation with the protesters, but rather to crack down harder on them. The following evening would see the bloodiest hours of Ukraine's Euromaidan Revolution, with at least 21 protesters killed by snipers. By the end of February 2014, the embattled Ukrainian president would defect to Russia, and Russia would mount a stealth invasion and seizure of Crimea, kick-starting a war that, through periods of intensification and lulls, continues to the present day.
Just to be coldly analytical, the impact might be overstated in your analysis. You are assuming a random distribution of casualties, but we know this is not the case.
Putin has avoided using citizens from the politically more powerful segments of Russia. Some populations (such as Dagestan’s) might have 90% of their members experiencing loses, while others (such as St. Petersburg’s) might have 1% or less.
That is true, but I think I underestimate the number of relatives and 15 is probably also too low. But I’m not removing estimated duplicates, of which there are probably more in Dagestan etc.
Thanks for your thoughtful, back-of-the-envelope analysis of the figures!
Regards,
“500,000 in losses”
All so Putin can try to rebuild the failed Soviet Empire. While he’s at it he should repaint the Moskva. It’s getting rusty.
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