Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2023
Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the Bakhmut area despite Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks.
The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Russia conducted another large-scale drone and missile strike on the night of May 15 to 16.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to downplay his reported cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence on May 15.
The Wagner Group’s continued glorification and normalization of violence is evident in a widely circulated video purportedly showing a killed American volunteer in Bakhmut.
Russia and Iran continue efforts to strengthen bilateral military-economic cooperation.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) proposed a draft regulatory act that would allow FSB officers to conduct searches without a court order, likely to support the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to strengthen domestic repression.
Russian forces reportedly shut down another Ukrainian evangelical Christian church in Mariupol likely as part of a systematic religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
Russian forces are reportedly deploying additional manpower and equipment from Belarus to reinforce their positions in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremmina line.
Russian forces have made marginal gains within Bakhmut as of May 16 and continued limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast ahead of anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensives.
The Kremlin continues to pass legislation that provides benefits to participants of the war and their families in order to incentivize military service.
Russian authorities continue efforts to consolidate the economic subordination of occupied areas of Ukraine into the Russian economy.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2023
It is impossible to destroy the Patriot air defense system with a single Kinzhal missile.
The spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yurii Ihnat said this on the air of the nationwide telethon “United News”, Ukrinform reports.
“Do not worry about the fate of Patriot. From a technical point of view, Patriot is a complex, a battery, a division, a system - everyone calls it differently, but they cannot understand what air defense consists of. Let’s take a division, which is a command center where combat personnel sit, track air targets, and receive information about the air situation in their area of responsibility. Thus, they practice on air targets. It can operate in manual, automatic and semi-automatic modes. It is the automatic mode that allows Patriot to shoot down air targets without human intervention, as it did last night,” Ihnat said.
He explained that the complex includes a radar, which provides information and is located at a distance, and up to eight launchers, each with four transport and launch containers, which are also located at a certain distance.
At least three Russian scientists who have worked on hypersonic missile development have been arrested on suspicion of treason over the past year, their colleagues said in an open letter published Monday.
Members of the Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ (RAS) Siberian Branch warned that the criminal cases risk setting back Russia's advances in hypersonic technology.
“We simply don't understand how to continue our craft,” the scientists wrote.
The institute said its members Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev are held in custody on treason charges for speaking at conferences abroad, publishing articles in popular magazines and participating in international projects. Maslow and Shiplyuk were known to have been arrested in the summer of 2022.
Zvegintsev's arrest has not been previously reported. He is identified as the founder of a laboratory that deals with hypersonic technology. Siberian media has reported that a Novosibirsk court ruled to place Zvegintsev in pre-trial detention on April 7.
Treason cases are heard behind closed doors in Russia as they deal with what authorities deem to be classified information. Those found guilty face a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. The RAS scientists argued in their open letter that the allegations against their colleagues were leveled despite scrupulous peer reviews and inspections for “restricted information.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/forward-into-the-past-forbidden-books-in-russia-a81105
The number of Russian engineers prepared to work with classified info is now approaching zero.
Kh-47M2 Kinzhal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal
cost $10 million ? https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/16/7402408/
Harri Ohra-aho, the former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces and current negotiating official at the Ministry of Defense , is sure that Lukashenka’s illness has also caused a stir in the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin .
- The Kremlin is currently preparing to act in that situation, if Lukashenka can no longer remain in power. In that case, Russia will probably try to take over Belarus in some way, and it can completely change the situation also regarding the war in Ukraine, Ohra-aho told IS in Tallinn.
The general perception so far has been that Lukashenka has managed to put the brakes on Putin's desire to use Belarusian soil to his advantage in the war in Ukraine. If Lukashenka were to leave power, the situation could be favorable for Putin - at least in the event that Belarus would be led by a leader even more loyal to the Kremlin than Lukashenka.
- The northern front of Ukraine would then perhaps be fully available to Putin, Ohra-aho estimates.
If Lukashenka were to die unexpectedly, the Kremlin might get an excuse to announce, for example, that it needs to bring in Russian troops to protect Belarus against the threat from the West and Ukraine. However, this would not be a risk-free move for Putin, as both the army and the people of Belarus have been very reluctant to join Putin's war.
- Until now, Lukashenka has had to consider the possibility that his own soldiers would not obey him. So, what would be the response of the people and soldiers of Belarus in the event that Russia tried to take over Belarus completely? Barley-aho pondered.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023
Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
Ukrainian officials reported that terrain features constrain Ukrainian offensive operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
US officials reported that a Patriot air defense system is operational after Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian missile strikes on Kyiv destroyed the system on May 16.
The Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason.
Select Russian strongmen (siloviki) are likely attempting to signal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin that he must cease his political ambitions in Russia.
The Russian siloviki may be intimidating Russian officials affiliated with Prigozhin to discourage their cooperation with Wagner but appear to be unsuccessful in their attempts to scare Prigozhin into obedience.
Russian authorities continue to crack down against domestic anti-war dissent in an effort to strengthen domestic repressions and prepare Russian society for a long-term war effort.
Russian authorities are likely forcefully integrating Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) dioceses in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as part of a wider religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued to make incremental gains in Bakhmut and conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces continued to target west (right) bank Kherson Oblast and islands at the Dnipro River delta out of fear of planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
The Kremlin continues crypto-mobilization efforts by recruiting regional volunteer battalions and criminals.
The Russian State Duma adopted amendments to the martial law on May 16 that authorize the forced and controlled movement of citizens from territories under the martial law to the territories without marital law.
Russian ultranationalists are speculating about the fate of Belarus’ independence in case of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s severe illness or death.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-17-2023
General Mick Ryan THREAD:
Recently, the pending Ukrainian offensives have received a lot of attention. However, we should also understand how these offensives, and those likely to follow in the future, comprise one part of a larger view of victory for #Ukraine. 1/25
2/ Victory is a central concept in our understanding of war. Sun Tzu, writing in On War, described victory as the main object in war, writing that “a skilled commander seeks victory from the situation, and does not demand it from his subordinates”.
xxxxx
24/ As vital as the coming Ukrainian offensives are, we must also keep eye on the context against which military activities are conducted. Military operations serve a larger political purpose. For Ukraine, the highest political purpose can only be a just and durable victory. End.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1659080754423386113
Four relay cabinets burned in Kazan, Russia - 🇷🇺 media. Five freight trains delayed. No video surveillance in that area, so it will be difficult to identify saboteurs. An explosion on the railway in Crimea - 🇷🇺 media. Several freight wagons went off rails. Movement of electrical trains from Simferopol to Sevastopol stopped.
Partisan movement gaining momentum?
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659104851203092482
These Russian losses are significant for several reasons. The Ukrainian Armed Forces estimate of Russian killed and seriously wounded has now passed the 200,000 benchmark.
The May 17th estimate of 17 armored personnel carriers and nine tanks makes for very heavy news. The Red Army traditionally used ten-tank companies made of three three-tank platoons plus the Company Commander’s tank. In a task organized Battalion of combined tanks and infantry fighting vehicles/personnel carriers the 26 vehicle loss (combined tank and APVs) means an entire Battalion would be combat ineffective. Of course these losses are spread out over a vast front and not from one unit but the day and day losses are exceedingly serious for Russia even if the estimates are inflated 50 percent.
Times Radio: ‘Hopeless’ Russian offensive capability could put Putin himself under threat | Frontline
“Crimea is under threat, Putin himself is in big trouble politically, as well as the Russians being in trouble militarily” Russia’s failures to target Ukraine on the ground and in the air has halted Putin’s offensive capability, Prof. Michael Clarke tells #timesradio , and suggests a way NATO could end the war that could ‘change the architecture of security in Europe fundamentally’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUkpR9BoJnA
38 min
After several years of Russia's support to Uganda, it is now the turn for Uganda to reciprocate. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s mercurial son has declared that his country would send troops to defend Moscow if it came under threat. “Call me a ‘Putinist’ if you will, but we, Uganda shall send soldiers to defend Moscow if it's ever threatened by the Imperialists!” Muhoozi Kainerugaba said on Twitter. — Muhoozi Kainerugaba (@mkainerugaba) March 30, 2023
“The West is wasting its time with its useless pro-Ukraine propaganda,” added the outspoken general, a fervent supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian Despair. Prigozhin BEGS SOLDIERS NOT TO RUN AWAY FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS |War in Ukraine
Day 449: May 18
When it comes to Bakhmut, the situation is very dynamic. Yesterday Wagner forces started to fire at the last block of the high-rise buildings from tanks and artillery in order to prepare the region for the upcoming storming operations. Some sources indicate that in order to not lose men, Ukrainians temporarily withdrew their forced to Ivanivske, and once the artillery preparation ended, Ukrainians started reinforcing this region once again. The Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, also reported something similar. He said that because Ukrainians unblocked the flanks and are controlling tactical heights around the city, they are essentially moving freely in an out of the city. He said that for this reason, the battle for the outskirts can be characterized as an encounter battle, where two forces are engaging as both of them are trying to move into the so-called Domino fortification. The situation is equally difficult for both parties. Ukrainians struggle to defend the outskirts because it is too dangerous to maintain a permanent presence there, while Russians struggle to move into the outskirts because Ukrainians control tactical heights around them. That is why Prigozhin said they would not be able to take Bakhmut this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy916YggP0Y
Another railway train is laying on its side in the Krasnoyarsk region of the Russian Federation. Who could be doing this? 🤷♀️
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023
Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.
Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are blaming Russian conventional forces for military failures in and around Bakhmut.
Prigozhin’s efforts to blame the Russian military for failures around Bakhmut are causing some ultranationalists to accuse him of using the Battle for Bakhmut to satisfy his personal ambitions.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May.
The Kremlin continues to strengthen domestic repression measures likely to encourage self-censorship and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may discuss the possible provision of Western fighter jets to Ukraine at the June Defense Ministers meeting.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Unknown actors, possibly Ukrainian partisans, attacked a Russian rail line in Crimea.
The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges.
Russian occupation authorities continue to announce patronage programs with Russian federal subjects to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-18-2023
Day 448.
Today, Ukraine makes limited gains around Bakhmut, a freight train is derailed in occupied Crimea, and we comment on videos from the battlefront of Ukrainian tank tactics, reflecting on echoes of World War Two.
Contributors:
David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles22 on Twitter.
Genevieve Holl-Allen (Foreign Correspondent) @genevieve_holl on Twitter.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor) @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.
Hamish De Bretton-Gordon (Former Tank Commander) @HamishDBG on Twitter.
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, #Donetsk Oblast, a Russian MT-LB loaded with AT mines was hit by the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade using 40x53mm HEDP grenades dropped from a drone, vaporising the vehicle.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659481263420440577
video
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
