Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Strelkov:
There is a fierce shelling of Gorlovka.
Perhaps the offensive has begun or is about to begin. I remind you: I predicted the main attack on the Zaporozhye front, auxiliary ones - on the Kherson and (possibly) - on the Donetsk.
Distracting strikes can be inflicted on the “old border” (Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions) in order to capture several settlements and provoke the RF Armed Forces to storm them (until they are completely destroyed).
Let’s see if my predictions come true.
(And, yes, I would be happy to be wrong, but I have little optimism).
https://t.me/strelkovii/4798
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023
Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more time to launch a counteroffensive because it is waiting for the delivery of promised military aid.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted the pre-war Kremlin justifications for the war by asserting that the Russian “special military operation” began as “a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied Ukrainian and US reports that a Patriot missile defense system shot down a Kinzhal missile on the night of May 4.
Russian occupation authorities seized the cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol as oppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church continues in Russian-occupied Crimea.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to conduct localized counterattacks around Bakhmut.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
Russia needs to produce over 29 million shells per year to satisfy Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demands for Wagner to use 80,000 shells per day – 13 times more than Russia’s pre-invasion annual production rate.
Russian officials continue to threaten and seek to manipulate international humanitarian efforts by threatening to dissolve the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire on May 18.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2023
In the past 24-48 hours (leaning more towards 24), north of Bakhmut, Ukraine has reversed about 2.5 months worth of Russian advances.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1657044496549306368
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023
Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12.
Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety.
Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive.
Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11.
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” held a press conference on May 12 to discuss its discontent with the current Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine.
U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, contradicting its proclaimed neutral stance on the war in Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
Russian forces continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
Russian forces continue to recruit convicts and establish volunteer battalions as a part of crypto-mobilization efforts.
Senior Russian officials are claiming that they are taking active measures to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukraine.
Interesting details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2023
In his latest verbal attack, Prigozhin tells the Russian Defence Ministry to “stop lying immediately” and says its actions will lead to a “global tragedy for Russia”
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1657010463366959109
BELARUS DICTATOR’S HEALTH??
Belarusian dissident writes me: “Lukashenka had an extensive myocardial infarction, likely he was put into an artificial medical coma. Russians poisoned him like they did to Makei.”
Makei was the Belarusian Min. Foreign Affairs who suddenly died a few months ago.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657101391293304844
‘Panicking For Real’: In Anticipation Of A Counteroffensive, Russia Moves Thousands Of People From Their Homes In Southern Ukraine
A leaked video-tutorial prepared by the terrorussian government explaining the proper procedure of evacuating their personnel from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/StarskyUA/status/1656763091311370240
RIA just posted another photo of a Ukrainian ADM-160B MALD standoff decoy that landed in Luhansk today.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1657141335957143557
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD
This will saturate the Russian air defence.
“The largest package of military aid since the beginning of the Full-scale war. Germany is going to transfer weapons worth about 2.7 billion euros to Ukraine in the coming months.” - Der Spiegel
The list of will include: 20 Marder, 30 Leopard 1, 18 wheeled howitzers, 4 IRIS-T-SLM air defense systems, 12 IRIS-T-SLS launchers, hundreds of guided missiles for this systems, 200 reconnaissance drones, 100 protected combat vehicles and more than 100 logistic support vehicles.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1657280291130548224
Vielen Dank.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023
Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13.
Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 12 to 13.
Russian media reported that two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 bomber, and an Su-35 fighter crashed in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, which some Russian sources claimed was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on conducting the war in Ukraine in the style of the “Great Patriotic Special Military Operation” has opened the door for several hardline actors to advocate for the institutionalization of increasingly Stalinist domestic policies.
Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants reportedly received an appointment to lead a new Russian force generation organization called “Voin” (“Warrior”), which reportedly replaced Russia’s legacy Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF).
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
Russian forces made marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine west of Hulyaipole.
Russian forces are reportedly replenishing units with mobilized personnel.
Russian authorities continue efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of “rest and relaxation” schemes.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13-2023
07MAY2023 ‘Russia is Closer to Collapse Than You Think,’ US political analyst and author Janusz Bugajski predicts the imminent and dramatic demise of Russia as we know it today.
We already see signs of conflict between different power institutions, mysterious deaths of over a dozen oligarchs, and frequent purges of the military leadership.
The rupture will accelerate after Putin expires or is ousted, as internal power struggles intensify, and some regional leaders will see an opportunity for forming new states similar to what occurred during the collapse of the USSR.
xxx
Washington and Brussels need to break out of their status quo mindset and start planning for all eventualities in Russia, including civil wars, peaceful secessions, extensive economic collapse, regional spillovers (war, guerrilla movements, refugees, etc.).
The West can strengthen the security of NATO allies and partners that border a collapsing Russia, facilitate cooperation among emerging entities to defuse latent conflicts, and launch initiatives for multinational cooperation, institution building, and democratic development. Post-Russia will be a challenge for the next generation just as post-communism was a challenge for a previous generation.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
