07MAY2023 ‘Russia is Closer to Collapse Than You Think,’ US political analyst and author Janusz Bugajski predicts the imminent and dramatic demise of Russia as we know it today.
We already see signs of conflict between different power institutions, mysterious deaths of over a dozen oligarchs, and frequent purges of the military leadership.
The rupture will accelerate after Putin expires or is ousted, as internal power struggles intensify, and some regional leaders will see an opportunity for forming new states similar to what occurred during the collapse of the USSR.
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Washington and Brussels need to break out of their status quo mindset and start planning for all eventualities in Russia, including civil wars, peaceful secessions, extensive economic collapse, regional spillovers (war, guerrilla movements, refugees, etc.).
The West can strengthen the security of NATO allies and partners that border a collapsing Russia, facilitate cooperation among emerging entities to defuse latent conflicts, and launch initiatives for multinational cooperation, institution building, and democratic development. Post-Russia will be a challenge for the next generation just as post-communism was a challenge for a previous generation.
Whenever Russia has lost a long war it loses outlying territories.
Now it may be reduced to Muscowy of 1530