Russian military convoy has advanced from Ivankiv to outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show (17 miles long)

CNN ^ | February 28th, 2022 | Paul P. Murphy

[Mariner]

A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.

On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.

Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.

The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.

Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.

[AdmSmith]

Here is the fate of one of them https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1655946975836262400

[MeganC]

Russian drivers are a very special group unto themselves!

[AdmSmith]

like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt0ulCKTUUo ?

[AdmSmith]

Before a counteroffensive, Ukraine probably has as many tanks as Russia. Russia has also lost most of its advantage in ground military equipment.
Brief overview: 1/5

2/5 Ukraine had 858 tanks at the beginning of the war (the Military Balance). In 14 months, 605+ tanks were delivered by the Allies (including about 90+ Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks). Another 80 Leopard 1 will arrive in June. Also, the AFU captured at least 544 Ru tanks

3/5 Oryx estimates UA losses at 495 tanks. According to experts, Oryx data cover about 80% of total losses. Therefore, the total losses of UA may amount to 620 tanks.
Thus, the available number of tanks for a counteroffensive is 1400 or so.

4/5 Russia had 3330 (the Military Balance). In 14 months, Roux was able to produce or know from storage 600+ tanks.
Oryx estimates RU losses at 1,911 tanks. Therefore, total losses can amount to 2,400 tanks. Thus the available number of Roo tanks is 1500 or so.

5/5 At the same time, Ru attracted rather old T-62 and T-55 tanks. During the war, the Allies supplied UA with 5,500+ armor. This is double what the UA had at the beginning of the invasion. Therefore, Ukraine now has much more resources than in the autumn of last year.

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1655866883369848832

[SunkenCiv]

My pleasure.

[AdmSmith]

[AdmSmith]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin declined to use his Victory Day address to make any significant rhetorical changes and reiterated existing narratives, preparing for a protracted war and framing Russia as successfully resisting the entire West.
Putin additionally attempted to use Victory Day celebrations to rally Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) partners, many of which have sought to reduce their reliance on the Kremlin since February 2022.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely seized the Victory Day holiday as an opportunity to mock Putin and question his judgment in one of his most direct challenges of Putin to date.
Prigozhin announced that Wagner forces will not withdraw from Bakhmut by the previously stated deadline of May 10 despite the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) failing to resolve the claimed “shell hunger.”
Prigozhin’s failure to abide by the withdrawal threat he made on May 5 indicates that he is cognizant of his dependence on the Russian MoD.
Prigozhin continued to blame high casualties and the slow pace of advance in Bakhmut on other Russian irregular formations to frame Wagner as the only competent force operating in the area.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 8 to 9.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka–Donetsk front.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov opened a new military camp for the “Sever Akhmat” Special Purpose Regiment in the Republic of Chechnya.
Russian occupation officials continue to deport civilians deeper into Russian-occupied territory.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2023

[AdmSmith]

[AdmSmith]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.
Pervasive issues with Russian combat capabilities, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces struck a command center where Ukrainian military commanders and officials were located, likely to support an ongoing effort to frame Russian operations as constraining Ukrainian capabilities to launch a counteroffensive.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully shot down a Russian missile using the Patriot missile defense system. The Biden administration also announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Kreminna areas.
Russian and Wagner Group forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on May 10, despite Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s previous threat that Wagner would withdraw from the area at midnight.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an annual decree calling up citizens from reserves for military training.
Russian occupation authorities are continuing the removal of Ukrainian residents from their homes in occupied areas under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.

Details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2023

[AdmSmith]

[AdmSmith]

Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say

he Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile with stealth capabilities, jointly developed by the UK and France, which is typically launched from the air. With a firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles, it is just short of the 185-mile range capability of the US-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, that Ukraine has long asked for.

Critically, the Storm Shadow has the range to strike deep into Russian-held territory in Eastern Ukraine. A Western official told CNN that the UK has received assurances from the Ukrainian government that these missiles will be used only within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not inside Russia. UK officials have made frequent public statements identifying Crimea as Ukrainian sovereign territory, describing it as “illegally annexed.”

The missile is “a real game changer from a range perspective,” a senior US military official told CNN and gives Kyiv a capability it has been requesting since the outset of the war. As CNN has reported, Ukraine’s current maximum range on US-provided weapons is around 49 miles.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine

Russia will now move several assets...

[Widget Jr]

Hacking is excusable and forgivable, suspiciously convenient accidents are not.

[Widget Jr]

Careless smoking behind Russian lines is about to increase again.

[AdmSmith]

Deir ez-Zor:

How US Military SMOKED Russian Mercenaries...

When the first vehicle in the convoy suddenly blew up, the Russian mercenaries knew something was wrong. Their objective, to capture an oil field in eastern Syria, was supposed to be a routine mission. The enemy they knew by then would have fled long ago at the sight of 500 battle-hardened Russian and Syrian fighters. But instead, the attack had come to an abrupt halt and explosion after explosion shook the ground. It wasn't long before AC-130 gunships, Predator drones, Apache helicopters and fighter jets were circling over the battlefield, pounding the attackers from every imaginable angle.

What the Russian forces didn't know was that the oil field was not defended by any fighters, but by American Special Operations Forces, supported by the most powerful air force in the world. And so, within a few minutes, the routine mission turned into hell on earth - and into one of the deadliest engagements for the notorious Russian mercenary group Wagner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viuUzGGac5M

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

[AdmSmith]

AFU tonight, #Bakhmut You hear more great news in this direction, probably tomorrow🔥👊🏻💀

https://twitter.com/azovsouth/status/1656751344600993792

[AdmSmith]

Victory Day Parade

Long queues in Novoazovsk, Donetsk region to get out of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1656753475563188224

Dmitry Peskov🤡 said today that the Russian Federation's response to the supply of long-range cruise missiles from Great Britain will be immediate, tough and adequate.

We have already received a video of “adequate responses” from Russian army positions in the direction of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/AEstoletov/status/1656750172880138252

[AdmSmith]

General SVR May 11: Lukashenko

Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday was puzzled by a serious problem and, in connection with this, held several consultations via video link. Seeing Lukashenka yesterday, Putin realized that he didn't even roughly understand how bad his health was. Putin believed that Lukashenka’s illness was a common ploy that could, on occasion, be covered up to refuse a visit or communicate over the phone. The president always brushed aside reports that Lukashenka was seriously ill, and considered this a skillful game of the Potato Elk, with which he can fool anyone, but not him. But this time, the President was struck by how bad things really are. The possibility of Lukashenka’s imminent death, Putin considers a huge problem. Lose control over the situation in the Republic of Belarus, with the subsequent loss of this country from his sphere of influence, this is a nightmare for the President of Russia.

Yesterday, Putin discussed possible options for keeping the Republic of Belarus in his orbit after the death of Lukashenka, and came to the conclusion that only the complete absorption of this country into the Union State, or rather, the actual joining of Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation, is the only good option. Moreover, the President of Russia believes that under no circumstances should a successor to the appointed Lukashenka be allowed to come to power, and all his (Lukashenko’s) sons should be under full control in Russia until the end of all processes. All security forces in the Republic of Belarus, according to Putin, should be provided with guarantees for the preservation of their security, status and property, and after integration, they should be redistributed among Russian regions. Putin said that he finds it funny to be able to outlive Lukashenka.

Putin himself, yesterday, was unable to properly hold a meeting with representatives of the leadership of the military bloc and, after hearing an incomplete report, turned off the connection. In the evening, the president again complained of weakness, dizziness, abdominal pain and nausea. While the treatment does not have the effect expected by doctors.
https://t.me/generalsvr/1582

[Widget Jr]

I think you posted that before? ;) I don't think I posted this in response yet. This is real, not a photoshop or internet joke:

"Wagner PMC for real made a medal to celebrate their own defeat in the Battle of Khasham, depicting their own troops in flames while gunned down by US air assets" (link)

"Imagine    over someone so hard, they get awards just for surviving"

[AdmSmith]

I think you posted that before? ;)

About Deir ez-Zor? Yes, but not that video. It was appropriate when you mentioned smoking. ;-)

[AdmSmith]

Speaking of medals for losses:

Hundreds of Serbs from Kosovo and the region celebrated today the lost battle of Kosovo, which took place 633 years ago in Gazimestan. In marking what Serbs call Vidovdan day, there were also nationalist provocations.

Some of them carried nationalist inscriptions, photos of Serbian criminal Vojislav Seselj, Russian flags and the letter “Z” that the Russians use in the occupation of Ukraine, provoked the Kosovo Police, but they were not allowed to enter the central manifestation…
https://kosovapress.com/en/serbs-celebrate-the-lost-battle-of-kosovo-there-were-provocations-this-time-as-well/