Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Russia should be forced to make a “Crimean gesture of goodwill,” according to Andrii Cherniak, a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. “Of course, the enemy must be cut off from Crimea - to make sure that Russia could not use the temporarily occupied peninsula for military purposes and, finally, could make the so-called ‘Crimean gesture of goodwill’,” Cherniak said.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3703508-russia-should-be-forced-to-make-crimean-gesture-of-goodwill-ukraine-intelligence.html
LOL
Literally the other day we again had to discuss the “hot topic” - the possibility of a “second Khasavyurt”. I emphasize - it is “Khasavyurt” (that is, the Kremlin's poorly disguised capitulation to an external enemy, similar to the capitulation of the Yeltsin mafia to Chechen fighters in 1996).
The Kremlin IS NOT GOING TO WIN THIS WAR AND DOES NOT EVEN WANT. (Undoubtedly! So it is! - Neither ideologically nor practically the Kremlin's amazing people are preparing for a long victorious war, clearly counting on its relatively quick end);
- Russian troops, with the exception of the bloody “meat assaults” in the Donbass, are everywhere on the defensive, they are not preparing for an offensive. (And this is true, but it follows from paragraph 1);
- The abandonment of Kherson and the absence of attempts to liberate the city of Zaporozhye (the capitals of the corresponding subjects of the Russian Federation), as well as the available information about the preparations for the evacuation of civilian institutions in the rear of our troops in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions (this is true) - indicate that the Kremlin is ready to surrender at any moment to their respected partners in Kiev;
- China takes a “evasive” position in the conflict, it is not necessary to expect a full-fledged “lend-lease” from it, and it will not be possible for the Russian Federation to fight on its own even with only one “Ukraine”, which has all of NATO as a rear, for a very short time, since it spends much more weapons, ammunition and military materials than it produces (by the way, “strictly the opposite with 1941”, when - despite the huge losses and evacuation of industry, the production of military materials rapidly increased the further - the more, by 1943, having “covered” all losses and allowing far to bypass the enemy in the production of the main types of weapons). Consequently, the Russian Federation will have to agree to a “negotiation” of such a kind that it will be a poorly disguised capitulation.
- The “elites” of the Russian Federation are fragmented, a significant part of Putin's entourage - was, is and will be against this “adventure” and “for a return to the pre-war status quo” as close as possible (even with losses in status, sovereignty, etc. ). And even a partial change of “elites” will not happen - the time for this has already been lost (not to mention the fact that no one was even going to do this). As the army and rear weaken (which is facilitated by “quiet sabotage” by many agents of our oligarchy in power, in the military industry, and in the armed forces), their pressure on the president will only increase. (And this is also true).
The general conclusion is that “Khasavyurt is inevitable” and will be implemented by the autumn of this year or in the spring (after the elections) of the next year.
Chechnya: Khasavyurt Accords Failed To Preclude A Second War
https://www.rferl.org/a/1070939.html
This was a Russian blowback as they intended to use Shamil Basayev in the usual way (kill rival groups and then when they are in charge make a peace deal with the Kremlin) but Basayev went fully into his role as an adversary. The Russians had better luck with Kadyrov.
Reporting from Ukraine: 01 May: Russians ON QUARANTINE! DEFENSE LINE IS EMPTY!!! | War in Ukraine Explained
Day 432: May 01
The freshest reports suggest that both sides decided to try to cripple each other before the main battle. In order to reciprocate the damage, Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike. The spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russians developed a new tactic to break through Ukrainian air defense. Previously, Russians would launch several waves of drones before the missiles and program these missiles for multiple trajectory changes in order to confuse air defense operators, but as Ukrainians got more skilled and the room for unexpected maneuvers was reduced to zero, Russians were forced to come up with something new.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri2rBSrYXwU
Kamil Galeev explain why Ruusia is producing meat:
If you have the absolute numerical superiority, you may assume the enemy should run out of resources first. Ergo, you will probably win the war, if your troops are *engaging* the enemy
Engagement = victory
And *your own casualties* serve as a verifiable indicator of engagement
Sufficiently high casualties = good metrics
You are engaging -> Winning
Too low casualties = bad metrics
You are dodging the fight -> Not winning at all
Too low casualties -> You are not fighting -> Unacceptable
Paradoxically enough, the system is optimised for producing higher rather than the lower casualty rate
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1653002090233438209.html
Thanks,
Putin’s Intel Officer Reveals New HUGE Problems For Russia
Putin is terrified for his life- this is the claim by a former FSB officer who has now defected to the west and brought startling intelligence with him that could shape the course of the Ukraine war.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4150214/posts
This is the story of one defector, there are many...
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is increasing its production of precision missiles for use against Ukraine.
Shoigu likely seeks to deflect intensifying accusations that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) cannot provide sufficient ammunition to Russian forces.
Russian reactions to a claimed strike against Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander Major General Ihor Tantsyura suggest Russian ultranationalists are attempting to frame any Russian operations as delaying potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.
UN member states, including key Russian partners like China, India, and Brazil, voted to adopt a resolution on April 26 that acknowledges Russia as the aggressor of the war in Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces made marginal gains near Bakhmut but did not advance within the city itself.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited and local counterattacks in the Avdiivka area.
Ukrainian forces continue to operate on and around islands in the Dnipro River delta in Kherson Oblast.
Russian government officials are continuing to introduce new social benefits to veterans and their families to incentivize further military recruitment efforts in Russia.
Likely Ukrainian partisans targeted an unspecified Zaporizhia Oblast occupation Ministry of Internal Affairs deputy head in Melitopol.
The Kremlin reportedly distributed a new manual instructing Russian state media on how to cover an upcoming potential Ukrainian counteroffensive that, if real, indicates the Kremlin is setting informational conditions both for an effective Russian defense and to mitigate shocks in the Russian information space from Ukrainian successes. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on May 2 that it attained the manual, which reportedly instructs Russian state media to “not lower the expectations of the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive” Or claim that Ukraine is not ready to conduct a counteroffensive – instead treating the possibility of a Ukrainian offensive as a given[14] The manual instead reportedly stresses that Russian media should focus on Western security assistance and support for Ukraine.[15] Meduza reported that sources close to the Russian presidential administration stated that the coverage aims to allow the Kremlin to announce a military victory in the event of an unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive and establish justifications for a successful counteroffensive by claiming that Russian losses will be understandable because “the entire West has concentrated huge efforts on the front.”[16] The alleged document suggests the Kremlin is preparing for – if not expecting – Ukrainian successes and is planning to mitigate demoralization in the Russian information space. This is an important Russian adaptation from previous Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv, which produced dramatic shocks and demoralization in both the Russian military and the Russian information space that the Kremlin likely seeks to mitigate[17]
Details: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2023
That is Xi's goal and Putin is handing it to him on a silver platter.
It is a great deal for China; they just have to stay on the sidelines.
A post-war Russia ruled by Putin would be a much weaker nuclear country, which would be in China’s best long-term interest. Such a weakened nuclear power would not be able to challenge China’s geostrategic interests for many years or even generations to come, but it would be able to cause trouble for the U.S.-led democratic world and distract it from effectively responding to China’s expansion. Think of the diplomatic benefits a nuclear North Korea has brought to China over the past decades.
For Xi, a Russian defeat in the conflict would be unacceptable — not only because it would embolden the U.S. and its allies, but also because it would likely lead to the collapse of Putin’s regime, which, in turn, could be a precursor to the emergence of a more pro-Western Kremlin. In that event, not only would Beijing lose a bulwark in the new Cold War with Washington, but the latter would try to play the Russia card to influence China, in a mirror image of the U.S.-China-Soviet strategic triangle of the 1970s.
A friendly reminder from Captain HIMARS...
To whom it may concern.
P.S. There hasn’t been a single HIMARS system destroyed so far. Want to know why?
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1653690691107577858
video Eng sub
Nice PSYOP
Ukraine Update: The counteroffensive is important, and not just for Ukraine
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1653691663670190081
video
It was a real BOOOOOM
Russia says it downed two drones that targeted the Kremlin in Moscow last night and accused Ukraine of attempting to kill President Vladimir Putin.
Unverified footage on social media appeared to show an object flying over the Kremlin before a small explosion. Ukraine said it had nothing to do with the drone strike. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s spokesman said Ukraine was focusing on liberating its own territory after Russia invaded last year.
n a statement, the Kremlin said: “Last night, the Kyiv regime attempted to carry out a strike on the Kremlin residence of the President of the Russian Federation with unmanned aerial vehicles.”
It said it regarded this “as a planned terrorist act and an assassination attempt on the president”, and Russia “reserves the right to take retaliatory measures wherever and whenever is deemed necessary”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65471904
Interesting that Russia has now decided that it is a good idea to fake an attack on Putin.
As for the drones over the Kremlin. It's all predictable... Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist attack. That's why it first detains a large allegedly subversive group in Crimea. And then it demonstrates “drones over the Kremlin”.
First of all, Ukraine wages an exclusively defensive war and does not attack targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. What for? This does not solve any military issue. But it gives RF grounds to justify its attacks on civilians... Secondly, we are watching with interest the growing number of mishaps and incidents that are taking place in different parts of RF. The emergence of unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles at energy facilities or on Kremlin's territory can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance forces. As you know, drones can be bought at any military store...
The loss of power control over the country by Putin's clan is obvious. But on the other hand, Russia has repeatedly talked about its total control over the air. In a word, something is happening in RF, but definitely without Ukraine's drones over the Kremlin...
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1653747936667262976
Prigozhin:
We publish a request from the editors of the Obozreniye publication and the answer:
The Kremlin was attacked tonight.
The last time the Kremlin was bombed was in 1942.
The editors of the OBOZ portal. INFO asks Evgeniy Viktorovich to answer a few questions:
1. How can you comment on the very fact of the attack?
2. Will the strategy and tactics of military operations be changed after the attack?
3. Should we expect strikes against the leadership of Ukraine?
4. Should such blows be made?
5. What other red lines, in your opinion, remained uncrossed, if any?
Thank you for your cooperation!
We publish a comment by Evgeny Prigozhin:
“I can’t comment on this phenomenon in any way. Maybe it was lightning. The main thing for me is to get shells in order to advance in Bakhmut. And secondly, so that the military flanks do not screw up.
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/891
“They said they would send reinforcements, they would give a drone. Damn it.” 😸
https://twitter.com/r2d2251/status/1653420258433159169
A Russian mole ;-)
H I Sutton @CovertShores ***UPDATE***
Thread
New info on Nord Stream attacks confirms Russian Navy ships repeatedly visited area in months / days leading up to explosions
Pattern of activity revealed by Nordic journalists from DR, SVT, NRK and Yle #OSINT
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1653642544683646978
Nord Stream: Report puts Russian navy ships near pipeline blast site
Russian ships able to perform underwater operations were present near to where explosions later took place on the Nord Stream pipelines, according to an investigative documentary.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65461401
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius on Wednesday (8 March) warned against reaching premature conclusions on who was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, suggesting the attack could also have been a “false flag” operation to blame Ukraine.
Pistorius was speaking after a New York Times report, citing intelligence reviewed by US officials, said a pro-Ukrainian group may be behind the blasts that became a flashpoint between the West and Russia after last year's Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Boris almost said that there is classified information that reveals the perpetrator ;-)
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