Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
A member of the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of pursuing political objectives in Russia that are endangering Wagner forces in Bakhmut.
Russian political scientist Aleksey Mukhin—who contributes to the Valdai Discussion Club and Russian state media—commented on Prigozhin’s March 11 sarcastic announcement that he will be running in the Ukrainian presidential election in 2024.[1] Mukhin stated on his Telegram channel that the Russian public began to interpret Prigozhin’s statement as an announcement that he will run for the Russian presidential elections, which are also scheduled for 2024. Mukhin rhetorically asked if Prigozhin notified Russian President Vladimir Putin about his “presidential ambitions.” Mukhin argued that Prigozhin’s presentation of himself as the “commander” of the Wagner private military company (PMC) “directly affects the planning and management of the assault squads’ combat operations.” Mukhin also sarcastically stated that Prigozhin is a “prospective politician” who searches for scapegoats to blame for Wagner's high losses among personnel. Mukhin observed that everyone knows that the Russian government pays for Prigozhin’s forces and their ammunition and stated that Prigozhin’s failure to acknowledge the support from conventional Russian forces alienated him from other Russian battlefield commanders. Mukhin concluded that Prigozhin “has placed the Wagner fighters in danger of encirclement during the expected Ukrainian counterattack” as a result of his actions. Mukhin stated that Prigozhin now is demanding that Russian conventional forces “cover his flanks,” and that Russian forces may need to put aside their distaste for Prigozhin to prevent further Wagner losses in Bakhmut.
This attack on Prigozhin is in line with ISW’s March 12 assessment that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be deliberately expending Wagner forces in Bakhmut to derail Prigozhin’s political aspirations.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to maintain Chechnya's relevance in the Russian political and military sphere.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations.
Russian milbloggers continue to speculate about a prospective Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, suggesting increasing concern in the Russian information space about Ukrainian combat capabilities as Russian forces pin themselves on offensive operations in Bakhmut.
A Russian State Duma bill aiming to raise the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin is not planning to conduct full mobilization in the future.
The Russian military is reportedly employing the newly created “assault detachments” in different manners across different tactical situations.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that Russia has illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.
Russian forces continued ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and made marginal gains northeast of Kupyansk and east of Siversk.
Russian forces continued making advances in and around Bakhmut but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement of the city as of March 13.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct raids against areas in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
Subordination of mobilized Russian military personnel to Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic (DNR/LNR) formations is generating increasing discontent.
Russian occupation officials continue to introduce new provisions to discourage and restrict the use of the Ukrainian language in educational facilities.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-march-13-2023
A real coup that was supposed to be done by Yanukovych and his Party of Regions,with the help of Putin. This conspiracy was revealed by a former People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Oleg Anatolyevich Tsaryov.
The idea with the plan was to do what Lukashenko has done in Belarus - rewrite the constitution which would allow Yanukovych to become a president indefinitely. This was then supposed to provoke Ukraine’s western regions into separatism (instead of the people in east of Ukraine).
They even planned Oleh Tyahnybok of the far-right Svoboda party for the role of running separatist movement in the west of Ukraine.
This of course is a clear indication that Yanukovych and his Party of Regions were actually Russian agents, trying to make Ukraine into
.a puppet state under Kremlin rule a’la Belarus. It’s worth noting, that this was one of the many plans that Yanukovych had hatched with the Russians, but the others weren’t documented.
This basically proves that Ukraine was at hands of foreign actors and that Ukrainians had no other chance than to protest and defend their country. One could even say that Maidan Revolution saved Ukraine, as this way Russia could only seize Crimea and parts of the Donbas Oblast, which will soon join Ukraine again.
What’s even more interesting, Tsaryov proved the “CIA-funded coup d’etat” narrative to be a lie.
https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1635273860923916288
source:
Oleg Tsarev: Everything is not according to plan - both Russian and Western analysts did not calculate the current events in Ukraine
There were many scenarios, including “separatism” not of Donbass, but of Western Ukrainian regions by Alexey Peskov
According to various sources, there was information that some of our units went much further than it is now customary to talk about it ...
- My friends said that they reached the suburbs of Odessa. We got there and were forced to return, because there was no reinforcement or supply. There was no rear. And so, according to them, they could get anywhere. But for this, in every settlement that remained behind, it was necessary to leave some kind of unit that would simply control the territory. But with the small number with which the NWO started, it was impossible to do so.
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/364793/
Pekka Kallioniemi @P_Kallioniemi
THREAD
In today’s #vatniksoup I’m going to be talking about the most dangerous profession in Russia: journalism. Many investigative journalists have sacrificed their lives to shed light into corruption, kleptocracy and war crimes committed in both Soviet Union and in Russia.
1/24
https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1635619921131388931
>>There was [a] deliberate intent to interfere with the MQ-9, but the collision seems to be simple incompetence,” an Air Force official separately told The War Zone.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1635749673850793989
Russian Su-27 Collided With U.S. MQ-9 Over Black Sea
Prior to the collision, two Russian Su-27s intercepted the MQ-9 and were dumping fuel on it, before one clipped the drone's propeller.
Multiple sources familiar with Reaper operations and performance noted that changes in power can result in rapid deceleration. With the Su-27 and MQ-9 being about as dissimilar as possible from one another, it's possible a Russian aircraft looking to harass the MQ-9 could have rammed into it during a minute power change. Also, MQ-9 pilots have very limited situational awareness around them, which only increases the risks of an intercepting aircraft flying much too close.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-27-collided-with-u-s-mq-9-over-black-sea
Another good day, no injuries or fatalities
video
https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/status/1635731288304005120
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2023
Prominent Russian milbloggers are reamplifying a longstanding Russian information operation that seeks to weaponize religion to discredit Ukraine.
Russian authorities continue measures to mobilize the struggling Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war effort.
Russian Su-27 jets forced down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea in international airspace.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated on March 14 that Poland could supply MiG-29 multirole fighters to Ukraine within four-to-six weeks.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continue building defenses along Russia’s border with Ukraine in order to pin Ukrainian troops to northern border areas.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces advanced within Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City frontline and in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces continue fortifying rear areas in Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian partisans injured the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka Occupation Military Administration in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack.
United Russia Secretary Andrey Turchak announced on March 14 that the Russian State Duma will consider a law simplifying the legal recognition of missing Russian soldiers as dead. [45] The bill would consider a written statement from a missing soldier’s commander sufficient evidence to declare the soldier dead. The bill would also reduce the amount of time to declare a soldier as missing automatically from two years to six months, after which the soldier’s family can petition courts to declare the soldier dead.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2023
The P-3B serialled 602 and named ‘Gunnar lsachsen’ (ex-US Navy BuNo 156602, c/n 185C-5304) was shadowing a group of Soviet Navy ships in the Barents Sea; another account of the story says it was chasing an A-50 AWACS over international waters and trying to prevent it from fulfilling its mission. Lt. (SG) Vasiliy Tsymbal flying Su-27 ’36 Red’ (c/n 36911016816) was ordered to make a practice intercept. Trying to ‘squeeze’ the Flanker out as the fighter moved in close, the Orion's captain 1st Lt. Jan Salvesen reduced speed by extending the undercarriage and moved to position his aircraft directly above the Su-27. However, he was unaware of the Flanker's low-speed handling capabilities, and as the Su-27 slowed down as well to keep formation the Norwegian crew briefly lost sight of it.
Tsymbal manoeuvred the fighter dangerously close to the Orion and the port fin struck the No. 4 propeller. The dielectric fin cap shattered immediately, but so did the propeller and the debris punctured the fuselage skin, causing decompression; the damaged propeller caused violent vibration, forcing the crew to shut down the engine. Some accounts say that Tsymbal was not content and positioned his Su-27 ahead of the P-3, dumping fuel on its fuselage! Anyway, both aircraft made for home, landing safely at their respective bases.
A huge investigation was mounted, and reprisal was swift. Three days after the incident Vasiliy Tsymbal was expelled from the Communist Party – a very severe punishment by Soviet standards. One day later, however, he was reinstated. Shortly afterwards he was awarded the Order of the Red Star and transferred to another unit based in Rostov – in other words, kicked upstairs.
The Soviet Union officially apologized for the incident; however, the report of the Soviet accident investigation board stated explicitly that both pilots were at fault – a point debated by the Norwegian MoD. Anyway, Jan Salvesen emerged from the incident with an unblemished service record.
After the incident the Su-27 in question was recoded ’38 Red’ (and later ’31 Blue’), possibly to lead Western investigators astray and generally avoid unwanted interest in this aircraft. Thus, should any party make claims, stating the tactical code ’36 Red’, the Soviet authorities would reply that no such fighter was operated by Soviet Air Force units stationed up north – which would be perfectly true. However, no one ever stated any political claims. The reader may be interested to know that the famous Su-27 did gain special markings – one of the five ‘kill’ stars painted on the port side of the nose was superimposed on the silhouette of a P-3!
EUCOM said the incident “demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional.”
“Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” EUCOM added.
Over a span of at least 30 minutes, the two jets executed 19 close passes by the drone, spraying some of their jet fuel on the craft during the last three or four of those passes, the official said.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/russian-fighter-forces-us-drone-close-ukraine/story?id=97855821
i.e. dumping/spraying fuel is according to the instructions!
One of the more or less useless tactics that a slower aircraft can do to temporarily defeat (really just annoy) a fast mover trying to intercept and fly in an ‘escort’ position abreast or behind, is to slow down, get dirty with flaps and gear, and force the fast mover to approach its stall speed. They cant ‘hang’ with the slow mover so they have to move on.
In a real dog fight, this tactic would only work once, as the faster mover would climb out and attack from above soon afterward. But when a friendly ally forms up on you in flight (to basically showoff to you that his jet is better than yours), its some satisfaction to put him into a flight regime where he cant play with you anymore. :)
Great article and interesting to see that dumping fuel is a Soviet tactic that the Soviets are still using.
Great story - thanks for the ping.
Official footage released by the U.S. Air Force of the collision between a Russian Su-27 and US MQ-9 over the Black Sea.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1636303923479805955
Video Purports To Show Russian Su-27’s Close Encounter With An MQ-9. A day after a collision between a U.S. MQ-9 and a Russian Su-27, new footage appears to show a close-in pass between the two types.
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/365590/
Project 11982 oceanographic survey vessels were designed by Almaz Central Marine Design Bureau for the Russian Navy.
The primary mission of the class is to conduct hydrographic and oceanographic surveys, as well as research activities in deep waters. The vessels can also perform search-and-rescue of sunken objects, along with inspection of underwater communications and pipelines to eliminate breakdowns.
https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/project-11982-class-oceanographic-survey-vessels/
2018 It's reported that project 11982 research ship “Seliger” is heading towards the crash site of Il-20. It has a special searching equipment such as Super GNOM ROV and RT-2500 unmanned underwater vehicle.
https://twitter.com/smmsyria/status/1041976705836044288
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:351113/mmsi:273541310/imo:0/vessel:SELIGER
The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks.
The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut appears to be nearing culmination.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin commented on the reports about the dismissal of the Russian Commander of the Airborne Forces Mikhail Teplinsky - likely revealing Teplinsky’s affiliation with Wagner.
The Russian State Duma adopted the law on punishment for “discreditation” of all participants of the “special military operation” in Ukraine on March 14 to foster self-censorship in Russian society.
Continued Russian efforts to portray the war in Ukraine as existential to Russian domestic security by establishing additional air defense installations in areas that will never see hostilities is reportedly sparking internal backlash.
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his March 15 meeting with the Russian Prosecutor General's Office to continue to bolster his reputation as an involved and effective wartime leader.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Moscow, Russia on March 15.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks northwest of Svatove and conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to conduct offensive actions across the Kakhovka Reservoir in Kherson Oblast.
The Kremlin reportedly tasked the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen starting on April 1.
Ukrainian partisans killed a Russian collaborator in an IED attack in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.
International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin's long-term strategy document for destabilizing and reintegrating Moldova back into the Russian sphere of influence by 2030.
[10] The Kyiv Independent, Yahoo News, and several other international news partners released details of the Moldova report, reportedly originating from the same document as the leaked Belarus annexation strategy document.[11] Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean reportedly saw the document and stated that it is consistent with Moldova's assessments of Russia's ongoing campaign to undermine Moldovan sovereignty.[12] ISW is unable to confirm the existence or authenticity of this document, but the document's political lines of effort are consistent with recent Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova.[13]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2023
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