Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
If they let this flagrant fraud happen and do nothing... I guaran-damn-tee you, the bottom will fall out of their base...
There is absolutely no reason to vote when the vote doesn’t matter anyway..
The social contract has been broken.
He already has turned into a Paul Ryan.
Not the by the Republicans currently in office. I cannot speak for anyone else but I plan to vote against every incumbent Republican in 2022 in the primary.
Wake up people. If we lose this and Beijing Biden actually gets sworn in and installed in the White House, there will NEVER be another honest election, or Republican POTUS or Congressional majority ever again. “Elections” will be just a permanent sham meant to trick monumentally stupid people into thinking they have some say in the new permanent one-party dominance.
People not bothering to vote got us into this mess in the first place. Seriously, what is the turnout for non-Presidential elections? It's a disgrace.
Amen. I'll never vote again if Biden makes it to the White House. And of course the GOP will go with a RINO for sure, and I will never vote for one of them ever again, even if Jesus is their running mate.
And AG Barr and Durham are going to be handing down indictments any day now! /sarc
I have to chuckle when I hear hopes about upcoming elections! Do you people seriously think the Dems are going to allow honest elections going forward? Don’t make me laugh!
There’s no way the republicans are holding the senate they already have over 700,000 mail in ballot requests for democrats only Trump can drive the base turnout to match that and I highly doubt he honestly cares what the GOP does after all the backstabbers he’s had to deal with
What difference does it make? They will support giving our money away to foreign countries , open our borders and allow every job to move overseas.
I’ve been a registered Democrat for the last several years. Hopefully when they come to take folks to the “sensitivity camps” they’ll pass by me. Then again, if they find out I belong to FR I’m as good as dead.
Even thinking about voting again is distasteful.......why sign my name to the tit-for-tat exchanges and games they ‘enjoy’ role playing with each other ....without regard for the people they actually are suppose to ‘serve’. Rather focusing on how they can enhance their individual positions and wealth.
Agree. I hope the Trumps go Sound of Music. I am worried about their safety.
Nope. Not the way I am feeling these days
They will have to use the CIA vote rigging program to win.
Screw ‘em
That will just make more Democrat votes.
There are no more elections I don’t know how many more times I have to say the same thing. Manipulating voting machines mean we never win again
Nate Silver of 538 is trying to distract us at a critical moment. We must all stay focused on the 2020 election.
Why vote? Voting will be a joke, our party would never win.
Why have Trump's lawyers disavowed Powell's participation?
With an election? Idiots.
For extra credit, tell me why I need “republicans” in office?
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