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Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022
fivethirtyeight.com ^

Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv

Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.

[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]

On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fakeelection; fakenews
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To: Conserv

If they let this flagrant fraud happen and do nothing... I guaran-damn-tee you, the bottom will fall out of their base...

There is absolutely no reason to vote when the vote doesn’t matter anyway..


61 posted on 11/23/2020 4:22:00 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

The social contract has been broken.


62 posted on 11/23/2020 4:22:53 PM PST by proust (Justice delayed is injustice.)
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To: Fledermaus

He already has turned into a Paul Ryan.


63 posted on 11/23/2020 4:22:54 PM PST by LoveMyFreedom
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To: Conserv

Not the by the Republicans currently in office. I cannot speak for anyone else but I plan to vote against every incumbent Republican in 2022 in the primary.


64 posted on 11/23/2020 4:23:04 PM PST by wildcard_redneck (COVID lockdowns are the Establishment's attack on the middle class and our Republic)
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To: Conserv

Wake up people. If we lose this and Beijing Biden actually gets sworn in and installed in the White House, there will NEVER be another honest election, or Republican POTUS or Congressional majority ever again. “Elections” will be just a permanent sham meant to trick monumentally stupid people into thinking they have some say in the new permanent one-party dominance.


65 posted on 11/23/2020 4:23:09 PM PST by Zeddicus
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To: Trump Girl Kit Cat
I WIIL NEVER vote again PERIOD!!

People not bothering to vote got us into this mess in the first place. Seriously, what is the turnout for non-Presidential elections? It's a disgrace.

66 posted on 11/23/2020 4:23:18 PM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: jersey117
"Why would 75 million of us ever vote again after having our votes stolen without a fight from the GOP."

Amen. I'll never vote again if Biden makes it to the White House. And of course the GOP will go with a RINO for sure, and I will never vote for one of them ever again, even if Jesus is their running mate.

67 posted on 11/23/2020 4:23:28 PM PST by mass55th ("Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway." ~~ John Wayne )
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To: Conserv

And AG Barr and Durham are going to be handing down indictments any day now! /sarc

I have to chuckle when I hear hopes about upcoming elections! Do you people seriously think the Dems are going to allow honest elections going forward? Don’t make me laugh!


68 posted on 11/23/2020 4:23:34 PM PST by Artcore (Trump 2020! )
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To: hinckley buzzard

There’s no way the republicans are holding the senate they already have over 700,000 mail in ballot requests for democrats only Trump can drive the base turnout to match that and I highly doubt he honestly cares what the GOP does after all the backstabbers he’s had to deal with


69 posted on 11/23/2020 4:24:06 PM PST by Lod881019
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To: All

What difference does it make? They will support giving our money away to foreign countries , open our borders and allow every job to move overseas.


70 posted on 11/23/2020 4:24:30 PM PST by escapefromboston (Free Assange )
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To: Conserv

I’ve been a registered Democrat for the last several years. Hopefully when they come to take folks to the “sensitivity camps” they’ll pass by me. Then again, if they find out I belong to FR I’m as good as dead.


71 posted on 11/23/2020 4:24:30 PM PST by Huskrrrr
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To: Regulator

Even thinking about voting again is distasteful.......why sign my name to the tit-for-tat exchanges and games they ‘enjoy’ role playing with each other ....without regard for the people they actually are suppose to ‘serve’. Rather focusing on how they can enhance their individual positions and wealth.


72 posted on 11/23/2020 4:24:39 PM PST by caww ( )
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To: dp0622

Agree. I hope the Trumps go Sound of Music. I am worried about their safety.


73 posted on 11/23/2020 4:24:52 PM PST by madison10 (Give Thanks to the Lord, for He is good.)
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To: Conserv

Nope. Not the way I am feeling these days

They will have to use the CIA vote rigging program to win.

Screw ‘em


74 posted on 11/23/2020 4:24:55 PM PST by RummyChick (I blame Kushner.)
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To: Conserv

That will just make more Democrat votes.


75 posted on 11/23/2020 4:25:29 PM PST by carikadon (Don't mess with Texas)
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To: Conserv

There are no more elections I don’t know how many more times I have to say the same thing. Manipulating voting machines mean we never win again


76 posted on 11/23/2020 4:25:38 PM PST by genxer ( )
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To: Conserv

Nate Silver of 538 is trying to distract us at a critical moment. We must all stay focused on the 2020 election.


77 posted on 11/23/2020 4:25:51 PM PST by RedMominBlueState
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To: dfwgator

Why vote? Voting will be a joke, our party would never win.


78 posted on 11/23/2020 4:26:42 PM PST by madison10 (Give Thanks to the Lord, for He is good.)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda
Yep. The last hope we have right now is Sidney Powell who claims that she has evidence that will hand the election to Trump.

Why have Trump's lawyers disavowed Powell's participation?

79 posted on 11/23/2020 4:26:55 PM PST by Does so (Soon, universities will have degrees in voting fraud...)
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To: Conserv

With an election? Idiots.

For extra credit, tell me why I need “republicans” in office?


80 posted on 11/23/2020 4:27:03 PM PST by DesertRhino (Dog is man's best friend, and moslems hate dogs. Add that up. .... )
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