Posted on 11/01/2020 2:12:17 PM PST by CedarDave
SANTA FE – Joe Biden appears well-positioned to win New Mexico – and its five electoral votes – in this week’s election, a new Journal Poll found.
“Trump hasn’t been able to break into the Democratic support in New Mexico,” said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll. “The voters have made up their minds in this race.”
The Democratic presidential nominee had a sizable lead over President Donald Trump among New Mexico voters, though the race has tightened since a previous poll conducted before Labor Day.
In the most recent poll, 54% of likely general election voters said they planned to or had already voted for Biden, while 42% said they support Trump.
The split between the two candidates had been at 54%-39% in the previous Journal Poll, which was conducted in late August and early September.
Just as in the previous Journal Poll, Biden’s commanding advantage was due largely to strong support among female voters, Hispanics and self-described moderates and liberals.
Among women, 58% of those surveyed said they would vote for Biden, compared with 39% who said they would back Trump.
Male voters were much more closely divided, with 48% saying they preferred Biden and 45% saying Trump was their candidate of choice.
While New Mexico was long regarded as a swing state, a Republican has not won the state’s five electoral votes since George W. Bush did so in 2004.
(Excerpt) Read more at abqjournal.com ...
NM is not happening but who cares really
Don’t bet on it. NM without the libertarian as a small delta on 16. I treat it as a sub 5 state in 16 which means it definitely a state Trump
Can win
Biden is the guy who will make everyone be nice.
I agree with you. It will be very close in New Mexico. The fracking vote and the Latino vote is trending towards President Trump.
No link to a detailed methodology, and the methodology given at the end is missing some important details.
FWIW, I’m thinking another cooked poll.
Yeah, I put that post up. While I do think Biden will win NM, I think the race is much tighter than this poll suggests. I can’t believe for the life of me that Trump is only winning male voters by 3 points. No way. Also, I have no way of looking at the internals. Hispanics are not showing up in numbers like they did in past elections. Also, this poll was taken the day after the last debate and continued for a week, which means the first day or two did not get impacted by the “oil phase out” that Biden spilled. Of the “reach states,” I rank Minnesota first, followed by Virginia, Colorado, and then New Mexico.
Good.
If I didn’t know better - HAHA - I WOULD ALMOST THINK DOME OF THESE POSTS SBD COMMENTS ARE FROM DEMOCRAT OR BILLY KRYSTOL RINO TROLLS.
NM is probably safe for Biden. Trump hasn’t done much to fight for it, and a better effort is up in NH or NV. If it gets picked up, it means we are up big.
Didn’t the Navajos come out for President Trump a couple weeks ago?
Don’t forget the meth-heads
Yes they did. Not sure when it actually occurred.
Yet it could be. It would be an interesting gain,but probably would only be icing on the cake, and not really needed much. Time will tell I guess. 8>)
I agree with your point. “People don’t know what they don’t know.”
Only from reading, not from any personal experience, I have learned the following: (to me it has the ring of truth)
1. Back in pre-1990 a pollster could get a 50% response rate to a phone survey. So, to get a sample of 800 voters, they could call 1600 to 1800. Obviously quite doable.
2. The make-up of those 800 answering the phone (again in 1990) cut across the demographic lines ... Republican, democrat, independent, men, women, young, old, Black, Hispanic, wealthy, poor, etc.
3. So a pollster had a lot of data to work with. He could ascribe a certain number to this group, some others to this group and he had a pretty comprehensive swath of the voting public.
4. Today, everything is different. With cell phones, caller ID, and much higher suspicion about the polls, and pollsters, I have read the response rate is 2%. This means to get that same sample of 800 respondents, you must call 40-45,000 phones.
5. And perhaps even more important, the leading demographic that answers these calls is much narrower. Namely, young women aged 24 and under.
6. So now, even as an honest pollster, project that narrow demographic across the spectrum of all voters and try to prognosticate election day results.
I would say it is nearly impossible which is why the polls are so flawed, fake, and bogus.
They refuse to report the methodology in detail.
They must be ashamed of the D/R ratio.
I agree with your point —it is really hard to get an accurate poll.
There are companies that do it for private customers, but it costs a lot of money, a very high level of professionalism and objectivity, and requires a lot of validation questions to make sure the sample is a fair sample.
There are some folks here who have worked with these companies—and they have great posts from time to time.
When they post, I pay _close_ attention.
Beautiful state. Totally irrelevant to the contest.
If you assume those votes are breaking the Dem way as in the past.
we will soon know.
Speaking of a red wave, my husband and I plan on wearing red shirts when we go to vote.
NM may as well just be called Mexico.
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