Unless you are Camella Harris and are tired of doing it doggie for cheap.
Posted on 11/01/2020 10:30:54 AM PST by rintintin
Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.
Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight's average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania.
What he's saying: Silver told "This Week" that if Trump ends up winning the election, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."
"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points. It's not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania," Silver said.
(Excerpt) Read more at axios.com ...
I wonder that a soothsayer doesn’t laugh whenever he sees another soothsayer. — Marcus Tullius Cicero
More likely, there is no science in political polling; these guys are all guessing and relying on each other to keep the group close to reality. The sad truth is, none of them have a real clue about how this will turn out.
Except. that Donald Trump has been in the lead the entire time and the pollsters hope that they can BS their way into another "herd amnesia" credibility position for the next election. At least when you are predicting the weather, God provides a clean slate each morning.
Now is the time to capture that late surge to Trump, right out of left field.
All the pollsters are doing it. All of them.
But there is no late surge. Those votes have always been there.
Question: Can anyone here show me just ONE prediction concerning Trump that Nate Silver EVER got correct?
“No Libertarian to speak of this time.”
Jo Jorgeson has been running a pretty good campaign. She’s Gary Johnson in a Skirt! ;) She’ll get 200K votes or so.
It’s the Green Party with Howie (WHO?) Hawkins that’s not going to take any votes away from President Trump this time around. He’s basically invisible and is not the Hillary! patsy that Jill Stein was.
Imho the Biden campaign is collapsing. But it might be too late.
Sneak back into your hole Natie and wait there for 2022 when you make fools of these schmucks again!
Nate Silver is not a pollster. He is an aggregator of pollsters. He is a poll reader and not a very good one.
I hope the majority of the worthless pollsters get buried by Tuesday’s election results.
Unless you are Camella Harris and are tired of doing it doggie for cheap.
It is a dying industry. Matt Towery of Insider Advantage says that this may be the last cycle for polling. Due to response bias pollsters can no longer get a representative sample.
The few pollsters (Trafalgar, People’s Pundit/Big Data, Democracy Institute) who have been succeeding are doing it by using varying modes each of which comes with its own pros and cons. But, the large, well known firms continue with methodologies that cannot produce the necessary representative sample in a period where people no longer answer their phones.
You are likely to get your wish that much of the industry will get buried by Tuesday’s election results.
Hey mr 538. Stick it
We don’t care about your stupid prognosticators
I agree with everything you posted except Trump’s lead in PA being “several” points.
I think it is more like “few”. I think he’s going to win it by 2 or 3 percent. If there wasn’t Philly Phraud and Pittsburgh Pranks, he’d probably lead by 4 ... 5 tops.
PA’s governor is a complete scumbag ... I guarantee you the hijinks and shenanigans they employ with mail in ballots is going to make Chicago Democrats wonder why they haven’t adopted their tactics.
I hope PA is investigated regardless of the role it may or may not play in a Trump win ... The way those mail in ballots were virtually shoved down our throats was disgusting.
PA related : I *really* hope Connor Lamb gets beaten. That punk will replace Toomey in 2022 if he’s not beaten now. He is playing the voters in his district like most garbage politicians play them ... They run to the right at election time and obey the left until the next one.
Nate clearly had a bit of help with DNC internal polling data in 2008 and 2012 ... They wanted him to be the face of polling in the New Democrat Order.
Trump helped end that. Nate salvaged his reputation in 2018 a bit, but I think that was the exception not the norm moving forward.
in 2016, Trump got 15.4% in Philly.
Nate better watch out. He is going to get burned by the Red Wave. His credibility will be shot because the polls are definitely under-reporting the Trump vote by 3-7 points.
Biden becomes a lying dog face pony soldier
Trump will take PA by 2-3 points on the low end...
But here’s the real kicker, he’s not even going to need it to win the White House...
No maybe this time. Trump will take MN this cycle
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