Posted on 11/01/2020 10:30:54 AM PST by rintintin
Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.
Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight's average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania.
What he's saying: Silver told "This Week" that if Trump ends up winning the election, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."
"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points. It's not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania," Silver said.
(Excerpt) Read more at axios.com ...
So he thinks PA is closer than MI or WI.
But some polls have us winning MI.
I think polls are all collapsing at this point into a general tossup status.
Why are all the Pollsters and Presstitutes backtracking suddenly?? I thought Biden and Hillary were sure winners??
Sounds like they are just trying to regain what little credibility they think they have before the whole damn thing blows up in their face and everyone loses all respect for Political Pollsters, which deserve none anyway
exactly. This isn’t Nate back tracking, he is simply stating a fact.
He could of said the same of many states. Such as ... If Biden loses California, he is an underdog. Well, DUH!!!
He still has Biden at about 90% chance to win, MUCH higher than he did when Trump ran against Clinton
Pennsylvania is a loaded with electoral votes (20). Fifth largest state! If Trump wins PA, it is over! He may even lose Florida in that case.
How does he still have a job? Weathermen are more accurate.
Trump is going to run the table again in those states...Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and maybe even Minnesota are all going Trump.
I think Nate saw that Iowa poll last night and it scared the crap out of him. That poll is done by someone who’s a real pollster.
Ya think so, Nate? Who couldn’t figure that out?
Silver gave thr Big Guy 10
Keep in mind that Florida was one of the few states where the GOP won major races in 2018 despite a nationwide “blue” wave. If Trump loses Florida I don’t see how he’s even going to be competitive in most other swing states.
His claim to fame was Predicting an Obama win. Everyone who decided to not just hope for a McCain win could have predicted that because Obama had huge crowds and a lot of enthusiasm. The McCain vote was largely an anti Obama vote. I obviously have no idea what will happen on Tuesday but as far as I can tell the anti vote doesn’t generally win. Of course Biden has every establishment in his corner so it may be different but if you’re looking for historical precedents, anti candidates are usually not winners.
Trump remove the Rain Tax and 90,000 more sure votes in Pennsylvania.
Yes, Nate is likely a weasel...
But, I think he’s just using all these biased and crappy poll numbers that are stacked in favor of Sleepy Joe...
It’s the axiom of garbage in...garbage out...even FOX...
All these polls, even those that we like showing Trump ahead, generally have a 3-5% margin of error...
So, if Sleepy has a 5 point lead in PA, let’s say 49-44%, over Trump...then with a 4% MOE...Biden could be as high as 53% or as low as 44%...
Conversely, in that same poll Trump could be as high as 48% or as low as 40%...
Thus, the final vote could end up being Trump 48% and Joey 44%...which would still fall within the error of that poll..
Please correct me if I’m wrong on this...
In general, I think polls cannot predict the actual final vote, but are helpful in seeing trends...
And, the trends in recent days are ALL going toward DJT...
I pray you are correct, but you are right, that CNN clip [25 Oct 2016] was *almost* as good as watching the meltdown of "The Young Turks" on Election Night!
I sure hope that was a misspelling.
:D
From the article:
“Silver told “This Week” that if Trump ends up winning the election, “it would come down to Pennsylvania.”
Isn’t that an odd way of phrasing it?
I would like to see the Trump Campaign make yard signs for after the election that rubs salt in the wounds of Biden supporters.
But without a doubt, Trump will send out Tweets that make fun of Biden losing the Election.
“Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
42m
For better or worse, a lot of Biden travel seems oriented around trying to have a clear and unambiguous win rather than maximizing the chances of 270 EV per se.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
42m
I actually think you can make a case for GA as a plausible tipping point state if something goes wrong for Biden in PA. With OH it’s much tougher because OH and PA polling errors are likely to be highly correlated.”
Now he’s just getting ridiculous.
“But, I think he’s just using all these biased and crappy poll numbers that are stacked in favor of Sleepy Joe”
He’s relying on them, but he should know better. The average of garbage is still garbage. He’s doing the same thing he did four years ago. It’s propaganda dressed up as “science.”
He just posts word salad.
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