Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Does anyone know what the results are of the counties that are open tomorrow over the last 13 days? Can we expect that daily average?
I am mobile and out and about and will think more on this later but
I think i said net gain 17 tomorrow for Dems
I will likely up that to 20 based on today’s mail ins
So that’s back up to +111 for the Dems after Tomorrow
Also in am going back to +9 for them Monday too
So +120 Going into ED
135 was my prediction for that Thursday
Then 100 last night
I had R+ 36 today so that hurt me
Bzzzztt!! Sorry, no changing your answer. If that’s the case, then I will wait to update my answer on Tuesday. :-)
I’m changing Lol
100 was stamped in last night
I was just thinking outloud
I plan on doing that later this Evening
Take the total Net plus and divide by 12 to get a ballpark
The Dem/Dims are happy.
“Yup, the 90k margin Republicans hit was their high point. Already up to 91k. Will be higher when Miami comes in tomorrow (it will more than cancel out sarasota)”
After losing 400k from lead, they gain back 1k.
“Pretty clear to me that Ernst has closed in multiple polls... It’s basically a tie... The Dems’ best path to 50 seats seems to be through NC (+ CO + AZ and ME).”
Du thinks Biden is going to win in a lanslide.
Can we use the ipev to extrapolate final numbers? If so, than Biden is done in FL.
Remember, I only like polls when they show us ahead.
Given that,
“Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades”
Not CNN or Fox, but Des Moines Register.
Iowa is finished. Florida is finished. NC is finished.
AZ is still open question, but Trump should take.
Shaping up just like 2016.
Win 1 of MN/WI/MI/PA
See #310.
Pieces are falling into place.
And add OH, TX to the finished list.
PredicitIT Iowa, Trump shot up from 62 cents to 71 cents. Too fast for me to buy more.
But I previously had 405 shares at 61 cents.
Someone on PredictIT posted,
“IOWA is SAFE, OHIO is SAFE, FLORIDA - likely R, ARIZONA - likely R, PENNSYLVANIA - tilt R. Which state will Bidumb be hiding in next?”
“Trump wins back independents; Biden loses ground with women”
Wasserman:
“Tbh, would not be shocking to see IA and OH “come home” to Trump at the end (though I’d be surprised if he wins IA by this much) while the Sun Belt doesn’t so much.”
So Trump take IA, OH, FL - yet but Biden didn’t really need them.
How many more states are going to “come home” before talking heads say no landslide?
“Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades”
___________________________________________________
Translation: We were lying to you in those other polls to a) help Biden’s fundraising and, b) to try to suppress the MAGA vote, but now, to keep our “gold standard” label, we will give you the real scoop.
Even if they flip all four, that almost certainly won't be enough. The GOP is very likely to flip AL, and in pretty good shape to flip MI and MN.
Iowa poll broke for us at the last minute in 2014.
Silver:
“Certainly Trump’s best result in a high-quality poll in a while. We have gotten/will get lots more high-quality polls though and there haven’t been many others with results like this.”
In denial.
That IA poll shows Trump up 7, 48-41. That’s actually reasonably close to Trump’s final 2016 margin of 9.6 points. I just cannot see that many ticket splitters leading to a defeat of Sen. Joni Ernst.
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