“Pretty clear to me that Ernst has closed in multiple polls... It’s basically a tie... The Dems’ best path to 50 seats seems to be through NC (+ CO + AZ and ME).”
Remember, I only like polls when they show us ahead.
Given that,
“Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades”
Not CNN or Fox, but Des Moines Register.
Iowa is finished. Florida is finished. NC is finished.
AZ is still open question, but Trump should take.
Shaping up just like 2016.
Win 1 of MN/WI/MI/PA
Even if they flip all four, that almost certainly won't be enough. The GOP is very likely to flip AL, and in pretty good shape to flip MI and MN.