Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051
It won’t be enough, Janet, regardless. The Republicans think the Ds need a FL lead of over 300K going into election day. I read somewhere the Dems think they need in the low 200s. Whether they’re at 90K or 135K, I think they’re going to be very disappointed before midnight Tuesday.
won’t be enough, Janet, regardless
Yes I know , I was referring to people trying to guess the final number , I think many are assuming Monday evenings final data on byecomeys Page Is the last to compile for the data set
That is what I assumed for the past few days
Trump running no ads tonight on college football here in suburban Jax. Around 75% of all ads are Biden. Bloomberg is spending a mint. Let’s hope the Trump campaign made the right call on FL.
Fl is strict. Postmark not enough. Ballots have to arrive by close of election.
Trump ads on here in Michigan during the OSU-PSU game.
I’ll do a morning Florida EV update on Tuesday to track JoeIsDone.
Do you want to start a FL live thread on election night, then we transition over to it?
I’m really curious how NYTs final polls look in the morning. 4 key states. If Iowa poll is onto something, maybe we see it in these polls. Or Not.
The respondents look positive for Trump. But poll weighting can trick us.
“Party identification, party registration, and how respondents said they voted in 2016:
AZ: R+3, R+4, Trump+7
FL: R+2, R+1, Trump+4
PA: D+3, D+5, Trump+4
WI: R+1, no party reg., Trump+3”
Are you all getting the sense that the dam is about to break & people are going,”What the hell. Give him another 4.”?
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I agree. Trump has maintained momentum since the debate. The earliest voters are the most partisan. The undecideds tend to wait until the last minute to make up their minds. There are also a lot of folks who make up their mind as to whether they will even vote. Republicans are going to own Election Day.
Trump ads on here in Michigan during the OSU-PSU game.
Awesome. I turned the game off because I didn’t want to watch a Biden informercial.
“Are you all getting the sense that the dam is about to break & people are going,”What the hell. Give him another 4.”?
It will just take a few results to set off te avalache. After having been beat like rented mules for 4 years, If Republicans get any sense that they might win, they will swarm the polls.
I don’t think that the Democrats ever got to “acceptance” stage...
That big Iowa poll is showing some Republican strength in House races as well. A twitter analyst says: “Catholics and Norwegians coming home [to Republican]”.
https://twitter.com/Oblivion2elect1/status/1322723836052279296
Interesting, because Robert Barnes is often talking about the Norwegian communities in WI (and IA and MN). How they have this “Norwegian nice” attitude where they politely won’t tell pollsters anything about their voting until just before the election. Sounds close enough now that they’re revealing that they’re trending (R).
A FRer posted on another thread:
“Rumor on DU that a WAPO/ABC poll about to drop - not good for Joe”
Speaking of Vigo County. Sounds good to track it.
From a Dem/Dim:
“In any case, Dave Wasserman has been making the case that back in 2016, district level polls were flashing warning signs for Hillary. Now the warning signs are flashing again, but this time for trump. Point in case: Today Emerson (rated A- by 538) released a poll showing Biden with a 7 point lead in Wisconsin, which is great. But the really good news in this case is that they also show Biden and trump tied at 48% in Vigo County in Indiana. Ho hum you say. Well, not only that county has voted for the eventual winner of the election since 1888, with the exception of 1952 and 1908. Also, trump won this county by 14 points in 2016.”
BTW, not only do Rs have a net 172K super voter advantage, but I also think we have a net 80K or so advantage on 3 of 3 voters who have not cast ballots in FL. The Democrats are all in a cat fight on Twitter as to who is to blame for their impending FL loss.
I thought they were in the grieving stage. But maybe Anger stage.
One twitter Dem/Dim.
“I’ve been crying for the last 45 minutes.”
I read her thread for Enten. She was a Biden canvasser in WI and she obviously found a lot of Trump support there. When she saw the A+ Iowa poll today, she came to her realization Trump was going to win...and cried.
Interesting little backstory.
I’ll concede the point that people might go to a Trump Rally just to see him in person.
I’d wager that many of the 20% I spoke of are persuaded to vote for him by two factors: Trump himself, and the crowd’s enthusiasm.
I’d say POTUS is so charismatic that he closes the deal at his Rallies at a very high rate!
Ophonybama may be a “historical character for this country,” but the whole book on him, when written, will not reflect well on the American people for having elected a FRaud to the Presidency! TWICE!
We should be ashamed of ourselves!
LOL. Yeah, I bet all their in-fighting and public blame game will help them get out the vote.
final numbers
RPEV 31916 R
Mail 9752 D
net 22,151 Reps
tomorrow ..who knows! DEMS won IPEV by +52K last year...but I don’t if more R counties are opened this year vs last...I will assume nothing has changed in that regard
1) going with “all other things equal” IPEV Rep +10K
2)but not all other things are not equal it’s souls to the polls day , I see some at other places
pointing out a big push of that was last Sunday and churches aren’t as crowded this year because of Covid, plus some of it is cannibalized in the mail ins I am giving the DEMS a +30K souls to the polls surge
3) it was raining a good chunk of the day in the D stronghold of Broward, I assume this deterred some voting and they will vote Sunday instead good for +1K
3) Miami vs Sarasota dump : I don’t think Sarasota can keep up with the Miami-dade dump on its own now (it had POlK to help today) DEMS +1K
+10-20-1-1
Dems +12K in IPEV OR 333 every 30 min update(36 total) from 6am-6pm
4)mail ins Dems +9K today which was a +3 jump from Friday
I will go with a +10K day here or +278 per update
333+278=611
final: Dems gain 22K or an average of 611 every 20 min update from 6-6 (first few will be very lite so others need to be higher)
I hope I am overestimating souls to the polls surge
and underestimating the “all other things equal” Rep net IPEV gain. If I am i still “win” in my mind since it helps Trump
but I guess a +22 dems net gain
but we should know early if I an way off if Dems are falling hsort of +700 gains every update during peak voting hours
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