Florida Early Vote update, 10/29/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/29/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914

[Ravi]

Orange County IPEV


Could we actually win one day of IPEV there? Psychological boost

[plushaye]

Matthew Isbell might get his Dem hispanic surge but it depends on who they vote for. In 2016, there was such a surge, which made Dems happy and Reps despondent. Turns out it was a hispanic surge for Trump.

[janetjanet998]

Could we actually win one day of IPEV there? Psychological boost

---

no they are one of the few counties that are increasing the D lead every day

TO: all
Stay tuned I am working on Sunday “souls to the polls” info

[plushaye]

Of the few non-media pollsters that are more trustworthy, both Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar AND Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling now predict a Trump victory.

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/10/29/another-pollster-sees-a-trump-victory/

[Cathi]

Brian Schwartz
@schwartzbCNBC

“Spoke to someone familiar with the Trump camps polling. With a few days left, these are some of the states they are confident in: FL, AZ, NC, Maine 2nd district, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Texas. Not confident: Michigan.
Public polls show they’re down in most of these states.”

4:15 PM · Oct 29, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

[janetjanet998]

I am sure I made some minor mistakes and typos but:

what if today was Sunday and only the counties opened then voted with todays data>

keep in mind I am not sure what counties were opened 2020 vs 2016 the Sunday before election day

if more Rep counties are opened this year those votes may be lost election day votes this year

Dems won early in person voting that day by 52,000ish votes
but alot of those votes are already

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difference between in person voting yesterday and today

Broward +4164 D
Orange +616 D
lean +464 D
Gads +236 D

hillsbor +1717 R
pinel. +1566
Mantne. +1811
charelt +1265
volsia. +1740
Bay. +2053
Duval. +1388
Palm b. +1623
Miami-d. +384

6 other small red counties +1485

so R +10,318 in person votes today in the match up of Sunday opened counties

but it gets better
Two Big ones: Polk and Sarasota have no data yet to compare

so if there was no “souls to the polls” D-push in the data

Rep would have eon todays in early person voting at least by 10,318

and the overall net day of day +2-3K

WILD CARD QUESTION:

If polls are not open on Sunday in a county do they still count the mail ins on Sunday?

If not D’s could have big mail in Day with so many R counties missing

Of course if not they will double up on mail on Monday

[SpeedyInTexas]

Those states are enough for a win.

[wireman]

Thanks, Speedy.
I can’t thank you enough for the good work you do here!!!

[SpeedyInTexas]

“If polls are not open on Sunday in a county do they still count the mail ins on Sunday?”

Last Sunday there was a decent D VBM net increase. Previous Sundays not.

Not sure why if no mail on Sunday. Could be VBM ballots hanging around from the Saturday that just got counted or people dropping ballots off in person at county offices and getting counted.

So your conclusion for Sunday is could be a wash?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Its a team effort. Lots of people posting and sharing data and insights.

[cookcounty]

Michigan has no ballot markings regarding party, therefore these numbers are not being harvested.

[Ravi]

Just talking about winning a single day of IPEV. Looks it might be possible tomorrow - we’ll see. Only lost by 600 votes there today.

[cookcounty]

Kids not on campus makes the intimidating (free beer and pizza...!) voting parties and ballot harvesting a lot tougher.

[Cathi]

We’ve got to stop the bleeding’: Democrats sound alarm in Miami
Politico ^ | 10/29/2020 | Marc Caputo
Posted on 10/29/2020, 6:44:10 PM by Cathi

Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo “We did not get the kind of funding for different vendors who would do that type of work until late in the campaign ... I screamed. Hollered. I called. I lobbied from the top to the bottom” — @RepWilson & others fret about Miami turnout

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...

[SpeedyInTexas]

As we near the end of this election, one thing is obvious.

byecomey’s website has had an impact on a presidential campaign. Not many people can claim that.

The Florida numbers are so widely seen and discussed now that it drives narratives.

TV people and internet sites are all chiming in on the GOP FL comeback.

Pretty remarkable when you step back and think about it.

Well done byecomey. Well done indeed.

[plushaye]

I’d take that list and more. They didn’t necessarily list everything like AZ/IA etc, just enough.

I’m thinking/hoping it’s going to be much more than 270 for EC. ;)

[SpeedyInTexas]

Marc knows Miami

[Ravi]

The map that changed the world...

[bort]

Absolutely. Great job byecomey

BTW I notice that all of us are getting repeated on blogs and Tweets. We led a PR comeback for Trump while Fox was trumpeting fake polls and trying to depress our base.

[plushaye]

I like that politico article. Desperation and panic setting in there.