I am sure I made some minor mistakes and typos but:
what if today was Sunday and only the counties opened then voted with todays data>
keep in mind I am not sure what counties were opened 2020 vs 2016 the Sunday before election day
if more Rep counties are opened this year those votes may be lost election day votes this year
Dems won early in person voting that day by 52,000ish votes
but alot of those votes are already
Broward +4164 D
Orange +616 D
lean +464 D
Gads +236 D
hillsbor +1717 R
pinel. +1566
Mantne. +1811
charelt +1265
volsia. +1740
Bay. +2053
Duval. +1388
Palm b. +1623
Miami-d. +384
6 other small red counties +1485
so R +10,318 in person votes today in the match up of Sunday opened counties
but it gets better
Two Big ones: Polk and Sarasota have no data yet to compare
so if there was no “souls to the polls” D-push in the data
Rep would have eon todays in early person voting at least by 10,318
and the overall net day of day +2-3K
WILD CARD QUESTION:
If polls are not open on Sunday in a county do they still count the mail ins on Sunday?
If not D’s could have big mail in Day with so many R counties missing
Of course if not they will double up on mail on Monday
“If polls are not open on Sunday in a county do they still count the mail ins on Sunday?”
Last Sunday there was a decent D VBM net increase. Previous Sundays not.
Not sure why if no mail on Sunday. Could be VBM ballots hanging around from the Saturday that just got counted or people dropping ballots off in person at county offices and getting counted.
So your conclusion for Sunday is could be a wash?
Amazing you’re tracking all these numbers. I certainly don’t have the overhead to do this.
OK looks like Sarasota, Miami Dade and POLK all dumped data
DEM actually picked up 600 or so EV votes net in Maimi-dade..R’s still up 6500 EV there) but that is the first time D had a net plus EV there in some time..turnout must be improving for D’s there
anyway
so far today as of 9am
EV +6380 R
Mail +2640 mail
net R +3740 on the day
goal is 40K
10 hours left , or 26 updates (may be 27 I will use 29 to be safe), until 6pm.
R’s picked up about 500 after hours votes last evening
so need +39500 by 6pm eastern
0r 35,760 more from here
or average of 1375 per 20 min update