Posted on 10/29/2020 6:10:44 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
“10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7% ”
Gap down to 2.8 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Looking great.
Excellent news!
When they calculate the number of votes needed to win on election day, they will have no source for those “manufactured” votes.
D VBM return rate is 72.6%. Yesterday was 70.4%
R VBM return rate is 70.4%
2.2 point gap. Smallest gap so far.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
Do we have any similar data and trends from Wisconsin or Michigan?
Looking at D VBM rate.
They had a good day yesterday on VBM, gain of 2.2 points.
Lets say 2 points for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and 1 point for Sunday.
That would put D VBM rate at 79.6 on Election Eve morning. Pretty high.
There are some reports occasionally but not the kind of daily numbers we get from Florida.
Panic! MSNBC Only Finds One Biden Voter Out of 50 in Arizona
This is Andrea Mitchell, NBC News, Washington, on MSNBC this afternoon, a portion of her report with correspondent Vaughn Hillyard about early voting in Arizona.
HILLYARD: It is stunning and worth noting that the president going up to the rural part of the state where there’s a much larger population base — is worth noting. I stopped up there yesterday, into a couple towns — Lake Havasu, Kingman, Bullhead City. I went to one early voting location, and one, only one person out of 50 said they were voting for Joe Biden!
his numbers started the day at
Rep +427,091 EV
Dems +628,414 Mail
net R +201323
I will use those for my calcs
going to be a rough start when compared to yesterday at this time
1) No 3 panhandle counites until 11
2) Miami Dade dumped in +2300 mail in for the DEMS
3) plus he added yesterdays Sarasota totals last evening to his data instead of the next morning (2300 or so +R EVs)
So Far
Rep + 2090 EV
Dems +3385 Mail ins
NET dem +1295
1) Rs will eliminate the entire VBM advantage by tomorrow night.
2) They already beat what I call “Target 2,” which is Election Night when Trump won by 113,000 (+8,000 there).
3) By late today they’ll come close to being where the campaigns were on election MORNING in 2016 (i.e., Ds up by 70,000-88,000)
4) Rs should go into election day with a lead of between 15,000-30,000.
5) Florida is done, cooked, and should be a minimum 250,000 Trump win, maybe much, much more.
Rep picked up about 400 more EV votes out of Miami-Dade
This is down from 1000 or so the day before
So I assume there was a uptick in DEMs voting
Down to 202,618 from 206,914.
The fun continues.
Another fun aspect. You know the Biden folks are watching joeisdone. It has the best numbers. Maybe even Joe himself.
And the website is called JoeIsDone.
Too funny.
By my calculations, throughout the 10 day IPEV period, vote share for all votes has been:
Rs = 41.7%
Ds = 36.2%
Is = 22.1%
During this period 4,813,282 votes were cast or 66% of all votes through last night.
Do you think that vote share % is a reasonable projection of the remaining split?
Wow. We need great rural turnout in NV and AZ.
That can make the difference in a close election in those states.
New NBC poll
Biden +4 in Fl
I wish I had your optimism. I worry about cannibalizing ED vote.
So what are the Ds doing?
They are cannibalizing squared.
Plus their students will NOT be on campus, so I they MUST be up in all these #s to offset (+30% based on historical trends).
Yet student vote is down everywhere 1-2%.
Here’s hoping for another 50K GOP IPEV advantage today. Yes, I know there are some delayed openings in the Panhandle.
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