Posted on 10/24/2020 11:41:04 AM PDT by Coop
I posted this thread to focus on a mostly ignored state so far in the presidential/Senate/House race discussions. The Rocky Mountain State. No Trump rallies have come through here recently, which is curious to me given Sen. Cory Gardner's vulnerability and the fact that Trump only lost CO by <3 points four years ago. Plus AZ and NM border CO.
So why the silence?
Ground game: (Jul 2020 excerpt) The ground operation of the combined Republican campaign in Colorado — which goes by the team name "Silver Bullet Brigade" — dwarfs the GOP's field organization in previous cycles, with 46 paid staffers working out of 11 Trump Victory offices spread across the state, the party said.
Trump campaign, Colorado Republicans log 2 million voter contacts by volunteers
Fundraising: (Aug 2020 excerpt) Colorado residents have donated nearly $5.6 million to Trump, compared with $3.2 million to Biden, according to a Colorado Sun analysis of Federal Election Commission data through the end of June. Coop note: Article says candidate Trump raised <$500K from Coloradans in 2016.
Organizationally the pieces are in place for a strong Trump performance, which could pull Sen. Gardner across the finish line. Yeah, I know the polls are looking tough for Trump and Cory Gardner in CO. You likely also know how I feel about polls. For two reminders, in 2014 Mark Warner led in every poll, with a peak lead of 29 points, yet only defeated Ed Gillespie by <1 point. In 2016 Ron Johnson led in one poll and trailed in 29 other polls, often by double digits, to former Sen. Russ Feingold. Sen. Johnson comfortably won re-election. And how about those 2016 presidential polls? :-)
Pres. Trump seems to be doing well in AZ, NV, all the states surrounding CO, including NM. But trailing horribly in CO? Does not compute.
Ping
Trump can win Colorado.
Amazingly, NM is a better chance fro Trump than CO. I am sad because in the 1930d & 1940s my grandparents were big GOP supporters and participated in the party functions. My grandmother was an alternate delegate from CO to a National convention one time
You linked to incomplete data. Trump lost CO by 4.9% in 2016. Given the further hard left movement in the state in the last four years, I'm not sure he can overcome it.
Also, I would like to see a Trump vehicle parade like we’ve seen in other states.
All my 2016 results have been based on the Politico site, for better or worse.
My wife and I are both poll watchers, and will be keeping a keen eye on any improprieties that are attempted.
Hard to overcome the Marijuana vote....
I’d love to believe CO is winnable but I guess Trump has decided it isn’t?
Any rhetoric aside, you just watch the action. As you said he is not campaigning there. So either he thinks it is so solidly in his column that he would be foolish to waste time, money, energy there (like Oklahoma)...
Or he has virtually no chance (like California)
I have to assume it’s like California. I’d love to be wrong. I am also assuming he does not perceive that he can help Gardner, at least not enough.
If he goes to Colorado the week upcoming that would change my mind.
I don’t live in Colorado anymore, my parents are lifers there though, still going strong in their 80’s. I see things through their eyes. Both were registered Democrats since they turned 18, until the 1990 for my mom, and 2012 for my Dad, when they went either Republican or independent. The 2012 Democratic Caucus my Father attended forced him rethink his political opinions.
Interestingly, Pueblo County voted Trump in the last election. This has been a democratic party held county forever. Yet, even taking Pueblo County, it wasn’t enough to Trump to win Colorado in the last election. I think that the Denver, and Denver Suburbia, Colorado Springs, Castle Rock corridor has been heavily infiltrated by young people, mostly in the Technology and computer industries, which have pushed Colorado strongly into the ‘New’ Democrats hands. Further, the local papers have not had pro-Trump coverage....EVER, it’s fake news and hate news on steroids.
I say this literally, Biden could destroy the entire ecology and economy of Colorado with his policies, and the Corridor mentioned above would still vote Democrat. Honestly, Trump has a better chance of winning NYC than Colorado at this point.
New Mexico is a different animal. While there are considerable dependence upon Welfare, and a huge Hispanic population (that often leans democrat), Oil and Gas production is still a big part of the economy. New Mexico could easily flip this election and go with Trump.
The Trump campaign has their own internal polls, and evidently they think Colorado is out of reach in 2020. Too many crazy Californians moved there.
“Trump only lost CO by <3 points four years ago. Plus AZ and NM border CO. “
Since that time California has sent us thousands of it’s best along with the Northeast.
If they do think it’s even remotely winnable, it would be because in 2016 Dopey Weed Man took 5% of the vote and Trump lost by only 4%.
I’d like to see the campaign come back here before the election. I’m not a huge Gardner fan but we need that seat.
Live in Mesa County on the western slope. My wife returned from shopping an hour ago and said she saw several vehicles in a informal parade, displaying Trump signs & flags. They were honking their horns and waving to by standers. Mesa County is Trump country as is El Paso County (Colorado Springs).
Would like to see him up here in Montana also. I realize that he has a super busy schedule and works harder than anyone, but I’d like to see him help Steve Daines out.
I have CO as "not likely" but certainly not impossible either.
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