Posted on 10/24/2020 5:41:02 AM PDT by bort
For the third straight day of early voting, Republicans out-voted Democrats in NC, this time by roughly 13,000 votes (an increase from +3K and +7K over the last two days). Rs cut 2 more percentage points off of the Democrats' early voting advantage, which now stands at 40.82% (D) vs. 29.74% (R).
Current tally of all early voting (mail/in-person):
1,206,995 (Democrats) (40.82%)
879,222 (Republicans) (29.74%)
(Democrat advantage of roughly 327K in EV)
Yesterday's tally of all early voting:
Democrats: 81K Republicans: 94K (+13K)
Observations: Black vote percentage of early votes fell from 20.99% to 20.55%, the fourth straight day of decline. As a reminder, Republicans LOST the early vote in 2016 by 310K but WON the state of NC by 3.8 points. Republicans currently trail in early voting by roughly 327K, with 10 more days of EV to go.
On Monday morning we will know for sure whether NC is locked up or not, as traditionally Democrats do well on Sundays because of "Souls to the Polls." As I have predicted before, however, the "China Virus drop-off" will impact large portions of the Democrat base, especially older black women, who disproportionately fear the China Virus. I would not be surprised if Republicans out-vote Democrats on Sunday. (continued)
Say that in in 2 weeks from now
Exactly right. Trump's rally schedule does not show a campaign on offense. It shows me a campaign worried about key states, plus OH, plus shoring up the electoral vote in NE-02 (Omaha).
I'm quite pleased looking at all the numbers, but Trump's schedule right now doesn't fill me with confidence.
Last time only 8% of Black voters voted for Trump. If the various Rasmussen surveys are to be believed even a little bit (46% approval!) and we make the very conservative assumption that Trump’s share of the Black vote rises to 15%, then total Black voter turnout would need to be even higher to offset this.....
BTW, Trump’s going to win NC again. So will Tillis. I sincerely hope our idiot governor gets voted out too but I have less of a feel for that race.
Won’t need to. The election will be over, Trump will have over 320 electoral votes AND the popular vote, and anyone still trying to “count votes” will be irrelevant.
41.7 and 29.0
Thank you. I've been hoping to see a 50% increase, 100% if we have a great election. That would translate to 12% or up to 16% of the black vote. But I'm with you, thinking more 11-12%.
Yes, we are being swamped by Yankees and at least some Left Coasters at least here in Charlotte, but it’s not enough to tip the state -at least not yet.
This is absolutely true. Thus the registration changes become even more prominent.
It’s a good take you have, but there is early voting in person in this, too.
I won’t be surprised to see some percentage of Rs shift from day-of voting to early, in person or even by mail.
Whether you believe the “porn” or not, the polling location is going to implement it, so voting day is going to be a zoo.
Help me see this as good news, Republicans are farther behind on early voting than the total of 2016 and the big day for Democrats as yet to come?
I guaranteed a Dem drop overnight. Weekend - I’m more guarded. By Monday though the trend will continue. As of today pretty much match the percentages at the end of EV in 2016.
The Democrats have made a fatal error that will make their strategists the laughing stock of the trade for generations.
They and their major media propaganda outlets have been pushing coronavirus fear porn for months, and _continue it to this day_!
Polling makes clear that Democrats are the only ones that trust the major media, and that Democrats are three times as likely as Republicans to be afraid to go places because of the fear of coronavirus.
The Democratic coronavirus fearmongering is depressing their own in person voting over what it would have otherwise been.
This will probably cost them a couple of points in the national popular vote, a couple of states in the electoral college, and a couple of Senate seats, at a _minimum_.
The actual effect may be even _greater_.
Sometimes we need a little dumb luck on our side, and it looks like this year we will get some.
At the end of EV in 2016, it was Dems 41.7% and Reps 31.9%. Still 9 days of EV left this year. We will be in a stronger position vis-a-vis 2016 - question is how many voters are left. The only strong day really left for the Dems is Sunday. M-F next week we should clean up.
Thank you very much. As I communicated to you and Bort, I am hoping we can get these numbers down to 38% Dem and 33% Rep by election day.
There has been a large increase in the unaffiliated registrations here in NC during the last 4 years and these voters are not native North Carolinians. We are experiencing the same fate as northern Virginia. That makes prognostications more difficult. I am optimistic that some of my black NC neighbors will see that the liberal Democrats will destroy this country. Yes I am prejudiced, I despise liberal yankees that have destroyed places like my native Virginia.
If we go into election day D/R split at 38/33, Trump’s margin of 172k from 2016 should be enough to accommodate these unknowns.
Thanks, will do.
Moved to NC in 2008 from Occupied Connecticut.
Not all of New England are leftist loons, but I agree that many bring the crazy with them. There are also alot that are moving to get away from the stupid.
My brother has been saying the same. I hope you're right.
Pennsylvania bothers me still. Not that Trump won't legit take it, but they are really setting up for the steal there, and the courts are accommodating them.
The paranoid will be paranoid.
I hope someone is keeping track of all of the early voting and voter registration numbers so we can find out after the election if they had any meaning.
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