North Carolina Early Voting update (yes, good news again)

North Carolina State Board Elections ^ | October 24, 2020 | bort

[bort]

For the third straight day of early voting, Republicans out-voted Democrats in NC, this time by roughly 13,000 votes (an increase from +3K and +7K over the last two days). Rs cut 2 more percentage points off of the Democrats' early voting advantage, which now stands at 40.82% (D) vs. 29.74% (R).

Current tally of all early voting (mail/in-person):

1,206,995 (Democrats) (40.82%)

879,222 (Republicans) (29.74%)

(Democrat advantage of roughly 327K in EV)

Yesterday's tally of all early voting:

Democrats: 81K Republicans: 94K (+13K)

Observations: Black vote percentage of early votes fell from 20.99% to 20.55%, the fourth straight day of decline. As a reminder, Republicans LOST the early vote in 2016 by 310K but WON the state of NC by 3.8 points. Republicans currently trail in early voting by roughly 327K, with 10 more days of EV to go.

On Monday morning we will know for sure whether NC is locked up or not, as traditionally Democrats do well on Sundays because of "Souls to the Polls." As I have predicted before, however, the "China Virus drop-off" will impact large portions of the Democrat base, especially older black women, who disproportionately fear the China Virus. I would not be surprised if Republicans out-vote Democrats on Sunday. (continued)

[bort]

For those who are unfamiliar with NC, Republican voters greatly outnumber Democrat voters on Election Day. Also, when Obama won NC in 2008--by the skin of his teeth, i.e., 1 point--23% of the total votes were cast by black voters. Democrats need at least 22.5% of the electorate to be black voters to win POTUS and the senate race.

[bort]

ping

[JerseyRepub]

Hi bort. Great work as usual.

Regarding the comparisons to 2016, are you also taking into consideration the number of raw votes? It’s clear that while the difference might be the same or even less than last time, isn’t it also true that more folks on both sides are voting early and therefore there are fewer votes for Rs on Election Day to make up the difference?

Shouldn’t the target be reduced by whatever factor the overall raw vote has increased to get a more accurate number?

[JonPreston]

Thanks for this update considering it runs counter to the depressing negative polling I hear on Faux.

[mmanager]

Thanks for all your work!

[bort]

Regarding the comparisons to 2016, are you also taking into consideration the number of raw votes? It’s clear that while the difference might be the same or even less than last time, isn’t it also true that more folks on both sides are voting early and therefore there are fewer votes for Rs on Election Day to make up the difference?

Shouldn’t the target be reduced by whatever factor the overall raw vote has increased to get a more accurate number?
________________________________________________
We are all flying a little blind this election year b/c of the China Virus. Democrats front-loaded their early votes with mail-ins, and black voters had a huge first 2 days of in-person voting. So your point is a valid one. I’m looking more at trends and demographics than raw voters. If blacks end up making up 20% or less of the vote, the Democrats are cooked, big time. I have predicted a massive drop-off in black voting—we will know Monday morning if I’m correct. BTW, a much higher percentage of D early voters are “super voters” than Rs. Rs have a ton of election day voters in reserve.

[stanne]

I don’t see these Dems allowing this. They’re pushing Biden a complete and out influence peddler and Harris. They’re not doing this faily. They’ll move in and shut it down

[JerseyRepub]

Thanks for your reply and I agree, lookin at the demographic data is crucial. The black vote percentage, in states like NC and FL(?), are important.

I see that their bring out Obama to Florida and he might also make a visit to Charlotte - that would be a good indication that the black vote is lagging, even more than last time.

Do you or anyone have the statistics of how many Rs and Ds voted on ED 2016?

[ConservativeInPA]

If blacks end up making up 20% or less of the vote, the Democrats are cooked, big time

Is there any indication that blacks in NC are not following the surge to support Trump on the national level per Rasmussen's poll yesterday?

[wfu_deacons]

Thanks, Bort
Today’s percentages for Dems and Reps were 40.8 and 29.7, respectively. What were the percentages yesterday? Thanks.

[BlueStateRightist]

“Regarding the comparisons to 2016, are you also taking into consideration the number of raw votes? It’s clear that while the difference might be the same or even less than last time, isn’t it also true that more folks on both sides are voting early and therefore there are fewer votes for Rs on Election Day to make up the difference?

Shouldn’t the target be reduced by whatever factor the overall raw vote has increased to get a more accurate number?”

This is why we need guarded optimism about all these early prognostications in FL and NC based on early voting. We don’t know the final tallies and how they will be affected by the early voting and COVID fear. For example, what will be the R “surge” on Election Day? What will be the D to R crossover rate? And vice versa? There are too many variables in a year that is highly atypical.

[deport]

7,314,614 - Registered Voters - Oct. 23, 2020 (7:30 a.m.)

2,200,487 - One-Stop Early Voting Ballots Cast - Oct. 24, 2020 (5 a.m.)

1,420,665 - Absentee Ballots Requested Oct. 23, 2020 (5 a.m.)

756,085 - Absentee Ballots Cast Oct. 24, 2020 (5 a.m.)

https://www.ncsbe.gov/

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Trump on the move....bank on it!!! POTUS, Donald J. Trump will easily win both Texas & Florida with ease on election Day, November 3rd, 2020. Trump will carry these states with a more then 1,000,000 plus vote victory margin!!! Democrats are getting crushed in early voting & mail-in voting...across the board!!!

Remember, you must include Republican, Democrat , Others & Independents in your conclusion of who will be the victor of these states!!!

Democrats, Joe Biden & Kamala Harris are burnt toast across the entire USA!!!

[ladyjane]

North Carolina has had a lot of northerners moving down there. I think some cities have had 5% population increases for the past few years. Do you think that will impact the outcome?

[Ravi]

Excellent news. We do need to see what happens over the weekend. At the end of EV in 2016, 3.1 million ballots were cast and Black share of the vote was 22.0%.

[bort]

Let’s be realistic about the black vote. Trump will make slight gains with black men, and this will be in the form of not showing up to vote. Trump got 8% in 2016. He may get 11% this time. That’s a significant increase.

[SmokingJoe]

It’s clear that while the difference might be the same or even less than last time, isn’t it also true that more folks on both sides are voting early and therefore there are fewer votes for Rs on Election Day to make up the difference?

Here is my take.
1. The GOP has had more new voter registrations than the Dems (by a nearly 200,000 margin as I understand it).
2. Republicans are not voting by mail this year because President Trump has been warning Republican voters about mail in ballot fraud plus all the stories of Republican ballots discovered in garbage dumps.
3. Republicans have always voted more on voting day then before. And Dems are the ones who have fallen for their own coronavirusfear porn. Most Republicans are determined to get on with their lives without worrying about coronavirus. .
4. If anything, GOP early votes overall, should be lower this real than before. Meaning Republicans are almost locked to win.

[laconic]

It is far better to ignore Fox, pay attention instead to the Twitters posted by Larry Schweikart, Richard Baris and Robert Barnes, who have election statistical expertise. Don’t pay attention to Nate Silver, he has a terrible record outside of when Obama was elected. Per George Stephanopolous on Election Night 2016 at 10:30 pm to Silver, “Changing your forecast, aren’t you?” “No, I’m not changing my forecast (he was doing just that) but the betting markets have now swung to a Trump victory.”

[ConservativeInPA]

That’s a significant increase.

If it is 11% and black turn out is 20%, then it is a .6% increase in total vote for Trump over 2016.

[LS]

Nobody is shutting anything down.

You guys don’t seem to have an appreciation for the machine that is the American voting process. Biteme is the candidate to the end. No switchouts cuz millions have voted and all the other ballots are printed. No shenanigans despite their best efforts, even in NC because

see #1 above, MILLIONS HAVE ALREADY VOTED. The DemoKKKrats screwed themselves because by election day more than 75% of their voters will have voted. THEY HAVE NO FRAUD ROOM. They simply stupidly missed this.

It’s going to be a bloodbath and there is nothing they can do now to stop it.