Here is my take.
1. The GOP has had more new voter registrations than the Dems (by a nearly 200,000 margin as I understand it).
2. Republicans are not voting by mail this year because President Trump has been warning Republican voters about mail in ballot fraud plus all the stories of Republican ballots discovered in garbage dumps.
3. Republicans have always voted more on voting day then before. And Dems are the ones who have fallen for their own coronavirusfear porn. Most Republicans are determined to get on with their lives without worrying about coronavirus. .
4. If anything, GOP early votes overall, should be lower this real than before. Meaning Republicans are almost locked to win.
It’s a good take you have, but there is early voting in person in this, too.
I won’t be surprised to see some percentage of Rs shift from day-of voting to early, in person or even by mail.
Whether you believe the “porn” or not, the polling location is going to implement it, so voting day is going to be a zoo.