Thanks for this update considering it runs counter to the depressing negative polling I hear on Faux.
“Regarding the comparisons to 2016, are you also taking into consideration the number of raw votes? It’s clear that while the difference might be the same or even less than last time, isn’t it also true that more folks on both sides are voting early and therefore there are fewer votes for Rs on Election Day to make up the difference?
Shouldn’t the target be reduced by whatever factor the overall raw vote has increased to get a more accurate number?”
This is why we need guarded optimism about all these early prognostications in FL and NC based on early voting. We don’t know the final tallies and how they will be affected by the early voting and COVID fear. For example, what will be the R “surge” on Election Day? What will be the D to R crossover rate? And vice versa? There are too many variables in a year that is highly atypical.
It is far better to ignore Fox, pay attention instead to the Twitters posted by Larry Schweikart, Richard Baris and Robert Barnes, who have election statistical expertise. Don’t pay attention to Nate Silver, he has a terrible record outside of when Obama was elected. Per George Stephanopolous on Election Night 2016 at 10:30 pm to Silver, “Changing your forecast, aren’t you?” “No, I’m not changing my forecast (he was doing just that) but the betting markets have now swung to a Trump victory.”