Posted on 10/22/2020 6:25:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 553,687
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 90,913
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 462,774
He’s back
Oooohh, look! A Hollywood Access tape from 2011...
I used up my free articles there. Can you please give me the gist?
Gist
“Being registered as a Democrat or a Republican does not mean someone has changed their allegiance in a presidential race. They could decide to vote for another candidate or decide not to vote at all, or they could change their party to reflect a long-standing shift in affiliation when it comes to their actual voting behavior. The easiest way to see this is that on Election Day 2016, there were 2,733,188 registered Democrats in North Carolina, but Hillary Clinton received 2,189,316 votes. In fact, Democrats often lose states in which they have a voter registration advantage: Florida and Pennsylvania are key examples from 2016.”
When people register as an R months before Trumps election, they vote R.
Didn’t want to read. Just looked at the headline and thought this is exactly why you might lose. Just laughing at them trying to convince themselves that voter registration changes are not that important.
Precisely. Quick research i did. There were dozens of counties in NC that went for Trump that had majority DEMs. Only 1 county that had majority REPs went for Clinton. I believe it was Watauga. Off the top of my head, DEMs had majority in probably 2/3 of the counties and REPs only majority in a 1/3 but still only a single solitary RED county went for Clinton. So 1 Watauga vs literally dozens of Blue counties voting for Trump.
Bingo. It’s better to look at turnout in the Trump counties than at the voter split.
Little buzzed and decided to post in the Physician Dad Politics Subgroup on Facebook. Let’s see if I can get a lefty to engage.
When people register as an R months before Trumps election, they vote R.
I'll add to this only that it's especially true when registering during this climate of hate, impeachment, riots, etc. If someone is brave (foolish?) enough to register as a Republican, they are darned sure voting Republican!
Hamilton County FL went for Trump 63-35% in Nov 2016. Yet it has this partisan split of registered voters as of 10/22/20:
Democrats: 3,824 Republicans: 3,169
I speculate the Dem RV advantage was even larger four years ago. (Our buzzing friend Ravi may have that info handy. :-p)
What’s with Linda Graham, saying on Hannity tonight.....after being asked about Humper Biden’s laptop/foreign inteference/payoffs....
Look, I think the big news, tonight is that PA is going to go Dem.
?????
I think the gap has to be somewhat less than 1.46%. After, the early vote this year year, the pool of Republican voters available on election day is going to be much smaller. I would think the proper way to gauge the goal would be= 1.46* early votes cast in 2016/early votes cast in 2020
I am not sure the Republican early voting turnout is going to significantly exceed 2016’s Republican EV turnout. They are “only” at 65% levels of comparative 2016 turnout. It seems their normal VBM advantage is being channeled into IPEV.
Very interesting. It’s noteworthy that Hamilton is one of the few true Advantage Trump counties.
I take it back. Graham is an idiot regardless. Wonder what his 2016 POTUS prediction was?
Actually Graham said Biden just lost Pennsylvania because of the oil industry comment. He seemed very excited that this was the key moment of the debate. Perhaps...
Ahh, that makes way more sense, thanks. It lines up with data many of us are seeing, plus promotes the “good guys’” message.
In 2016, Rs had 81.2% turnout. Do you know how that broke down: VBM, IPEV, and ED?
I am trying to figure out why people are anticipating Rs outnumbering Ds on election day on an even more lopsided level this year than 2016?
Does it have less to do with R behavior and more to do with D’s? (much higher % of EV to ED voting)?
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