I think the gap has to be somewhat less than 1.46%. After, the early vote this year year, the pool of Republican voters available on election day is going to be much smaller. I would think the proper way to gauge the goal would be= 1.46* early votes cast in 2016/early votes cast in 2020
I am not sure the Republican early voting turnout is going to significantly exceed 2016’s Republican EV turnout. They are “only” at 65% levels of comparative 2016 turnout. It seems their normal VBM advantage is being channeled into IPEV.