Biden Leads Trump 49%-47%; New John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll

In a new poll of 1006 likely voters nationwide, former Vice-President Joe Biden holds on to a two-point lead over President Donald Trump, 49% to 47% with 4% not sure. The random sample online poll was taken on Friday beginning after 7 PM and has an overall margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points.

Our July 8th poll showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 42% and the previous poll released on August 29th had Biden leading by six points (48% to 42%).

....with a rusty, red-hot railroad spike. And the Donkey or Panda you rode in on.

What are you babbling about? I believe Trump deserves reelection. I cannot figure out why a few Trump supporters on this thread are going ape**** against me. You mean simply mentioning the fact that Basement-Biden's lead in the RCP polls average has increased is "verboten?" (I feel like Newt Gingrich when those three Fox News co-hosts tried to silence him as soon as he mentioned the evil anti-U.S. "George Soros.")

Biden is f=_-@|).

You cannot hide for 89 days, in a basement, and simply refuse to campaign. Carter the classic, but remember Hillary cancelled rallies too.

People see through the Wag The Dog agitprop. I'll bet Barry Levinson regrets every frame of that fairly-good movie.

Even the low-info will know Joe is toast when Biden's people call off their fireworks 2 days out.

your laughable claim that Basement-Biden somehow “is doing worse in the polls than Hillary Clinton did” and therefore Basement-Biden “will lose even worse than she did.” Your theory is interesting but totally baseless, based on everything you've said.

Yeah?
Here ya go:

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with covid – EXCLUSIVE
Express ^ | Oct 3 | By DAVID MADDOX

Posted on 03/10/2020, 23:52:23 by RandFan

The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.
SNIP
Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.

This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
SNIP

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3890265/posts

And you know what?
The Democracy Institute was one of the very very few polling outfits that got BOTH Brexit and Trump's win in 2016 right. The fake polls from NBC Reuters etc got it totally wrong in 2016, same as they are getting it wrong this year. Only difference is, the fake news polls will get it wrong by far bigger margins this year than they did in 2016.
I repeat. Trump WILL win and by a bigger margin.

You and the guy you're trying to defend are not comprehending the difference in significance between one individual poll on one specific day of the year vs. the polls average

The polls average was totally wrong the whole of 2016. If 90% of the polls are skewed suppression, biased polls, the average is skewed, suppression, biased polls too. That is basic math.
In 2016, it was only in the last few days that the fake news fakers tightened their polls to make it look like they had it close all along. They didn't. For all of 2016, they were calling it for Hilary to win by up to a massive 15% as late as October 18.
Both the Washington Post and Time magazine had Hilary winning by 12 and 14 percentage with just two weeks and 12 days to go to the elections.

Multiple Choice:

If a Ukrainian prosecutor is investigating the company that pays your son millions to do nothing, you should:

1. Threaten to withhold aid to Ukraine unless they fire the prosecutor;
2. Smack your son upside the head with a broom and send him home with an admonition to stop creating coinflicts of interest for you;
3. Have the prosecutor killed by a CIA wet operative;
4. Try to pay off the prosecutor; or
5. Let the chips fall where they may, and do the right thing for Ukraine. If sonny boy gets nailed, he gets nailed.

If rioters are tearing down a major city, setting fires and attacking people, you should:

.....

You're [a] deranged DU troll who does nothing but spew out hysterical far left nonsense.

Now you're really going off the deep end. Sad. As I said, I believe Trump deserves reelection. But feel free to continue lying about everything I said.

You claimed Hillary Clinton was only leading by 2.3% this time in 2016. I totally debunked that piece of fiction by posting the actual RCP figures from RCP in post # 49, which you then proceeded to totally ignore and go on an insane deranged rant of foaming at the mouth garbage.

Again, you've "debunked" literally nothing. You either refuse to or simply don't understand the obvious glaring difference between a polls average and one individual poll on one specific date. I accurately quoted the 2016 & 2020 RCP polls average and its trend but you stubbornly refuse to accept any polls average. Instead, you're still comically trying to cherry-pick just a few individual polls on a specific day in 2016.

That change in the RCP came because outliers that had Hillary up by large numbers tightened before November. The polls adjust their methodology so they do not look like complete idiots. At least some do. Today Zogby has basically a dead heat and WSJ/NBC say Biden by 14. The average of those two alone skews the RCP average. That is why years ago I stopped looking at RCP. RCP is useless until the last week in October. I predict by the end of the month you will see the RCP average show Biden by +3. Why, because they know Cali, IL and NY will skew the popular vote numbers to Biden. Biden will win the popular vote, be ready for that. But, when you start digging into the number of illegal votes cast in CA and NY, Biden will have an advantage of around +1% of the popular vote. I suspect Biden will win 4 other states but those states will have a large number of Trump voters and not impact the popular vote total by much. If Biden was 14 points in the bag would they be sending out door to door canvassers? If Biden is doing so well, why are MN and NV even thought to be in play? If Biden is winning by such large numbers, why the concern last week over the surge of people registering as GOP? Polls are porn for people who want quick answers. We are a drive thru society and we need everything neatly packaged and quick. It is my fervent wish that Trump blows Biden out of the water and nobody ever quotes a single poll again. By the way, have you noticed how pundits have carefully built in their excuse for looking like idiots. They sure spend a lot of time discussing the “silent majority” lately.

Many follow the RCP average of polls and so the game has been to announce a “new poll” showing a huge lead for Biden (or other lib) in order to pull up the average favoring Biden.

RCP uses the latest 6 polls (I believe) and averages them out. Adding 24 points to Biden’s lead by including these 2 polls would add significantly to Biden’s “average” lead since the 2 new polls displace the oldest 2 polls that both showed Biden with less of a lead.

We learned Friday that Biden was going out on the road after being basement bound for the past 4-5 months. If he is so comfortably ahead then why is he suddenly going out on the road to hold rallys that draw 10 people?

And you know what? The Democracy Institute was one of the very very few polling outfits that got BOTH Brexit and Trump's win in 2016 right. The fake polls from NBC Reuters etc got it totally wrong in 2016, same as they are getting it wrong this year. Only difference is, the fake news polls will get it wrong by far bigger margins this year than they did in 2016. I repeat. Trump WILL win and by a bigger margin.

Thanks for finally calming down and finally providing a reasonable response instead of your typical totally idiotic, out-of-control, baseless ad hominem attacks, calling me, a fellow Trump supporter, a radical left-wing "troll."

And it's nice that you also finally gave up your ridiculously asinine argument against the RCP polls average with your typical tactic of cluelessly cherry-picking just a few individual polls on one specific date.

I appreciate the info you provided regarding the Democracy Institute poll. I'll have to check it out. Thanks!

I read all the comments and it seems to me what people are trying to point out is when an outlier poll shows 12-14% leads for a candidate, they skew the RCP Average. I am not sure what your argument is with that? You cannot change the history of 2016, clearly the polls were wrong throughout the campaign season. The obvious proof of that is Trump is President. RCP tighten the week before the election, because the polls tightened. Do you really believe that many people changed their minds one week before the election? What changed to tighten the polls? Based on the RCP Average in September and October of 2016 Trump lost by big numbers and we are now living in an alternative universe.

Check this out;

See how changes in voter turnout and support could shift the outcome of the 2020 election.

How it works
Start with the results of the previous election, adjusted for demographic change since 2016. Then adjust the sliders to see how shifts in turnout and support among different demographic groups could swing the Electoral College. See the scenarios below for examples.

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/

Use the sliders to see a likely outcome.

As an example, Trump got 69% of the “Non College White” vote in 2016, if he gets just 2% more, he wins. This is the biggest voting block and there are certainly more in this group this time.

Trump is polling higher among Black and Hispanic’s as well.

IMHO, there is NO WAY Biden wins and it will be a Trump Landslide.

The RCP average is regularly gamed by the Dems and their fake news media wing. Like you pointed out, its basic math.
They look at the average and say, “How high do we need to make our next “poll” to get the average to rise by this amount?”
The they go out and manufacture a fake poll to meet exactly the figure they are looking for (oversample Dems by say 10%, oversampe blacks etc). Any 10 year old with basic math can do it.
Then they headline their next prime time “news” with the fake poll having Biden leading by 14 points plus a certain “insurmountable “ RCP figure. Then they repeat that all day in all their TV programs.
Its suppression polling 101.

The polls average was totally wrong the whole of 2016. If 90% of the polls are skewed suppression, biased polls, the average is skewed, suppression, biased polls too. That is basic math. In 2016, it was only in the last few days that the fake news fakers tightened their polls to make it look like they had it close all along. They didn't. For all of 2016, they were calling it for Hilary to win by up to a massive 15% as late as October 18. Both the Washington Post and Time magazine had Hilary winning by 12 and 14 percentage with just two weeks and 12 days to go to the elections.

You (and your defenders, Thing 1 & Thing 2), obviously don't understand the difference between a polls average and your standard laughable tactic of idiotically cherry-picking a couple of individual polls on one specific date (as you just moronically did again).

And you're laughably trying to lecture someone else about "basic math." Chuckle

It is a fact that the polls, all of them tighten as we get closer to election day. The reason is as has been stated is so after the election the pollster can salvage some credibility by citing his final poll showing a tight race and ignore the 20 earlier ones in which they had “their” candidate up by double digits.

Sure they only showed Clinton up 2 points on average at this time in 2016 but then she lost. This time they are not taking any chances and want to keep the average lead in the polls much wider.

These are nothing but suppression polls and they do not now as they did not then account for the silent Trump supporter. And I will also say there are many MORE silent Trump voters this time than last. The violence toward Trump voters is far more evident today than it was in 2016. People are keeping their heads down and I don’t blame them.

The only time Trump supporters feel comfortable expressing their support is in large groups and we are seeing that happening all over the country almost on a daily basis in the form of Boat Armadas, Car rallies, etc.

Where is the Biden support?

In no way am I accusing you of being a troll, but the recent poll everyone is quoting online today (WSJ) was of registered voters only and that had Biden by 14. That certainly skews the RCP Avg. Especially when polls of likely voters puts the race within the margin of error.

I personally hate polls. Do not think for one moment that we are not being manipulated by both sides. Hannity is one of the worst on our side at manipulation. I do not like to watch him unless there really is breaking news or the President is on. Biden is a criminal, Biden is corrupt, Biden is crazy, Trump is a racist, Trump is a mass murder, etc. etc. etc. All meant to manipulate us and polls are used in the same way. Our Freedom is an illusion brought to us by our ruling class. I am pro 2d Amendment, pro Religious Freedom, pro Border Control and anti Abortion. Only choice is Trump, because any Democrat is the antithesis of what I believe in. But, I am not so delusional that I do not see my inalienable rights are being eroded by our ruling class. That includes both parties.

In Trump's second term, he will “fix” DACA and hundreds of thousands of illegals will have a path to citizenship. Trump will push us closer to Gulf Arab States and further from China. Trump will allow more H-1A visa recipients and he will allow more seasonal workers. Trump will raise some taxes, he has to we gave away too much “free” money. Trump will push for more fracking and oil production to increase revenue and taxes. I suspect he will over haul the FBI, CIA and DOD. Partially because they have opposed him for four years and partially out of a need to end the Bush years megalithic federal Law enforcement/Intel monster. They are the greatest threat to our freedoms. He will remain pro-Israel and he will remain pro-business, but on social issues, prepare to be pissed off. Trump will slow the lose of freedoms, but even he cannot stop it.

If you were favoring the President you would not be *gleefully* bearing propaganda against him; nor yet again trolling here on FR.

The polls are fake. Just like everything from the MSM.

(”Believing he deserves” re-election sounds like carefully-crafted doublespeak.)

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