PA Trafalagar Poll Biden +2

Trafalgar Grp ^ | 9/20/2020

[Redmen4ever]

Biden 47, Trump 45, Jorgensen (Libt) 2, Hawkins (Grn) 1, Someone else 2

[Redmen4ever]

At this time, four years ago, we were 6 points down. The day before the election we were still 2 points down. Then, we won by 1 point.

I suspect there is some hidden strength in this poll. Figure we take a point each from the Libertarian and "Someone else," and Joe Dementia takes a half point from the Greenie, and we're talking a 1 point race or maybe even a dead heat.

Plus, shy Trumps (moreso in other polls, Trafalgar's pretty good at ferreting out voter sentiment), plus six more weeks of economic recovery and progress on the pandemic. I think we win this state by more than 1 point.

But, what does my opinion count? The only takeaway is that Pennsylvania is in the toss-up category and it's going to come down to who gets out the vote.

Vote like the future of your country depends on it.

[escapefromboston]

Dems need +6 in polling to actually win.

[Alas Babylon!]

From Trafalgar:

Margin of Error: 2.99%

[CondorFlight]

Have they polled the cemeteries yet?

[rexthecat]

If it’s this close Trump wins easily.

[PGalt]

LOL! My poll says JoeJoe & Heels Up Horror Show have commanding leads. The die hard ‘rats can stay home this time. The cheese is in the trap.

[nwrep]

At this time, four years ago, we were 6 points down.

The "6 points down four years ago" was in RCP average of polls. Just before the 2016 election, Trafalgar showed Trump winning by a point.

[nbenyo]

Trump usually does his best with Trafalgar polling. I’m disappointed he’s not ahead.

[gibsonguy]

Trend is good. I have been hoping for Joe to start a real slide but I think that just isn’t going to happen. He will get 47% no matter what. Having the entire Media Establishment acting as part of your campaign team is that powerful.

[PGalt]

“Have they polled the cemeteries yet?”

LOL! They need the extra time to count the crypts.

Thanks, CondorFlight. If we can’t have fun this cycle...when can we? A Free Republic is a Fun Republic.

Let ‘er rip meme makers and humorists.

Life, liberty and the pursuit of laughs. Right JoeJoe?

[nbenyo]

We’ve all been waiting for months for Biden to tank. With weeks to go, it’s not happening. America has changed for the worse.

[nwrep]

I’m disappointed he’s not ahead.

It seems that Trump's chances of winning PA are less than Biden's chances of winning FL, if one takes the polling aggregate at face value. Something hard for people to accept here. I hope this latest turn of events improves Trump's poll numbers.

[nbenyo]

“It seems that Trump’s chances of winning PA are less than Biden’s chances of winning FL...”

Which is why Trump needs to nominate Lagoa.

[mdmathis6]

Many conservatives have been lying to the pollsters. Now it time for them to stop! Their lying may induce Trump to make some crucial errors in campaigning, causing him to lose when he didn’t have to!

[LS]

Traffic is very good but I think this cycle even they are way short in measuring “shy Trump” and way generous in assuming the 18-24 vote.

[mdmathis6]

So trump can be 48 and Biden 44 or they can be both 46 and 46 and the extra goes to the off party candidates or the undecided margin could be higher.(considering the MOE listed for this poll).

So its a 50 50 race. Many conservatives have lied to pollsters as well. They need to start telling the truth and swing the polls around now!

[nathanbedford]

I believe that Ginsberg's death has created a whole new electoral map. Before Ginsberg I was growing increasingly confident believing that the polls showed that the trend was our friend.

Now we are in a whole new game in effect a single issue election. It is impossible to judge who has the wind gauge on the matter of the appointment and confirmation.

My initial reaction remains with me, the Democrats will resort to violence and overplay their hand and ultimately the affair will redound to Trump's benefit and down ballots to Senators.

[TexasGator]

Response Rate: 1.44%

[immadashell]

Only 3% undecided? Is that even conceivable?

[Sooth2222]

I see Trump nominating Amy Coney Barrett and hearings as a plus. It doesn't need to be voted on before the election.

The Democrats will prove once an for all that not only do they hate all White men (like Brett Kavanaugh), they hate all White women who have families. Most White women don't understand that.

The Census Bureau estimates that 76.3% of the US population is White alone. That's a far higher number than what you might think just looking at TV commercials.